ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CourierPR]

A few minutes ago, local NBC 6 Met. John Gerard spoke about the possibility of Fay heading northeast. As I look at radar and satellite, I see her moving N or NNW.

[jaxfladude]

THE GFS MODEL(as of this posting' time) IS JUST CRAZY TO SAY THE LEAST.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 14_m.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

OT but I think it's pretty neat that we tied the record earlier tonight (about 8:30pm cdt). Just ONE more person and we would have broken it. And Fay is only a TS.

We tied the record that was set one year to the day lol.

Wow. That is pretty weird. Last year at this time we were watching Dean, and I still remember how crazy that got.

[Clipper96]

The Cuban radars are very delayed. Everybody should switch to the Key West one now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... Z&loop=yes

Check and uncheck the radar "box", and you can see the right side of the eyewall going right over Pico San Juan. Before impact, it looked like a closed circle; now it's a semi-circle.

If the circle reforms later tonight while the center is still over land, but over flat terrain, that would imply Fay will deepen very quickly once she reaches the coast.

[NEXRAD]

New convection is quickly firing north of Fay's core convective cluster along a large feeder-band that's forming. This activity will likely intensify further during the next hour. Long range radar imagery out of Miami is already showing this as an impressive band. It may approach portions of the Florida Keys during the pre-dawn hours.

- Jay

[funster]

The Cuban radars are very delayed. Everybody should switch to the Key West one now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... Z&loop=yes

Check and uncheck the radar "box", and you can see the right side of the eyewall going right over Pico San Juan. Before impact, it looked like a closed circle; now it's a semi-circle.

If the circle reforms later tonight while the center is still over land, but over flat terrain, that would imply Fay will deepen very quickly once she reaches the coast.

That's probably not Fay's center. The center is probably well southwest of there still in the water.

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

funster me thinks .........no but since we don't know for sure i just respectfully and strongly disagree

nhc mentioned a very erratic track last time they spoke combined with low confidene in track , me thinks it is onland right about now

cool pic hurrakan

[AdamFirst]

Something tells me I'm not going to sleep too good over the next couple days

[cpdaman]

so long as this doesn't decide to stall over 90 degree waters i will be happy as a clam, if it does then it maybe uh-oh time

based on its forward speed when do you guys think she will emerge on north side of cuba.

i think between 7-8 am.

[AdamFirst]

so long as this doesn't decide to stall over 90 degree waters i will be happy as a clam, if it does then it maybe uh-oh time

based on its forward speed it should be over water by 8 am or so, and the downpours should be very close to miami IMO

Key West short-range radar has very strong squalls heading through the straits.

[NEXRAD]

so long as this doesn't decide to stall over 90 degree waters i will be happy as a clam, if it does then it maybe uh-oh time

based on its forward speed it should be over water by 8 am or so, and the downpours should be very close to miami IMO

This is a reasonable time-estimate for the arrival of the outer-most feederband that's presently quite impressive. Of course, the activity could diminish overnight, so we'll need to wait and see.

- Jay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the shapeness of that trough this is not going past 82.5 west. That is something that will not happen, and if it does then I'm wrong and will eat crow for the next two seasons over it. It will make landfall east of there.

[CourierPR]

so long as this doesn't decide to stall over 90 degree waters i will be happy as a clam, if it does then it maybe uh-oh time

based on its forward speed it should be over water by 8 am or so, and the downpours should be very close to miami IMO

Key West short-range radar has very strong squalls heading through the straits.

If this heads north and deepens rapidly, many will be caught unaware. Another Irene scenario?

[SouthFLTropics]

Bedtime everyone...5:00AM is going to come real early...I gotta step away for a while and get some rest. I think I might need it tomorrow.

SFT

[cpdaman]

does the radar beam give the impression the spin (maybe LLC/maybe not) is further NE than in reality, or is deflected in another direction (N) or SE or possibly nothing at all. wondering what the case is when viewing south-central cuba coast from the long range key west radar

[orion]

For those interested, I now have Key West radar at http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

I have a satellite underlay, but you will see there are a few missing 'tiles'.
I also included the NHC forecast track.
Unfortunately, the map doesn't show the outline of Cuba.

(the weird zooming will disappear shortly, I was playing with it and forgot to turn the ftp upload off)

[Clipper96]

The Cuban radars are very delayed. Everybody should switch to the Key West one now.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... Z&loop=yes

Check and uncheck the radar "box", and you can see the right side of the eyewall going right over Pico San Juan. Before impact, it looked like a closed circle; now it's a semi-circle. If the circle reforms later tonight while the center is still over land, but over flat terrain, that would imply Fay will deepen very quickly once she reaches the coast.

That's probably not Fay's center. The center is probably well southwest of there still in the water.

What are you basing this assumption on? The Key West-derived signature is rotating quite strongly, and in fact looks so good (considering the extreme range) that it causes me to wonder if Fay might have been a minimal hurricane at landfall.

[cpdaman]

For those interested, I now have Key West radar at http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

I have a satellite underlay, but you will see there are a few missing 'tiles'.
I also included the NHC forecast track.
Unfortunately, the map doesn't show the outline of Cuba.

anyone who looks at that overlay and doesn't think fay is right of forecast points needs to see a doctor immediatley or go to sleep.

also note her current motion would have less relative shear, pretty favorable conditions (cept for land) she is moving NNW with some NW wobbles IMO

[Scorpion]

I agree.. this looks to pull right up into the spine of Florida.