ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC said the smaller circulation is rotating around the broader circulation, I'll guess the enxt 12hrs are gonig to be very interesting in watching the way that Ike evolves, remember everyone this still has near enough 72hrs of the gulf waters to come, thats a big amount of time and lots of different things could effect the strength of Ike in a good or bad way.

[bayoubebe]

3 day cone now moved up the the Tx-La border - that trough timing may make this LF a nail biter along the TX coast.

And will certainly start getting the full attention of those in LA

Yep. I think those in SW La. will definitely have to keep a close eye on it, they will most likely get something out of this.
One of our local mets said the more it slows down, the more we may have to be concerned in LA.

If I were in TX(anywhere in the cone), I would be preparing and possibly leaving by now, that's where my focus would be.
I really hope those of you here on this board who reside in Texas have made your arrangements.

[Txdivermom]

Portastorm,

Among the many other more serious disruptions that Ike appears destined to cause this weekend - like the disruption of people's lives and their homes - such a path will likely bring postponement of the big football game between Texas and Arkansas on Saturday afternoon in Austin.

And many Friday Night Lights will be dark...

[Sanibel]

You are watching the smaller inner eye get overtaken by the outer eye. The inner eye loses the center of gravity of the storm so it wobbles around inside the greater eye until the greater eye takes over. You are watching slow intensification over the loop current that should resolve into strengthening by tonight - if the shear doesn't interfere.

[Texas Snowman]

I agree on the slow intensification throughout the afternoon.

I would suspect that Ike will begin to ramp up later tonight and be Cat 3 by tomorrow a.m.

[Houstonia]

If you want to tear yourself away from the wobble-wars, here's another update from Lidner this morning.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1821958#p1821958

Oh boy... THAT'S a cheery update [sarcasm]...

The WORST thing about hurricanes (in my opinion) is the threat of tornados. You don't even have to be NEAR the storm to be threatened by them.

So... I'm on the southwest edge of Houston - Sharpstown to be exact - literally down 59 from Sugarland. I wonder what I will experience...

[dixiebreeze]

Poleward through the weakness in the ridge?"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

[baitism]

Ike's circulation is so large that I bet by Friday, he starts pulling in moisture from Lowell as it moves NE into Mexico.

[Stormcenter]

Seems I wasnt rocking the NHC boat too much after all theorizing that it will not go to south Texas, but rather up to LA, so for all of those who thought Pro Met DeltaDog and I , as well as a couple others were insane for questioning the NHC and their track. Looks to be some people on edge now all over. Everyone wants to predict so bad, but these storms have their own steering patterns when the get large. I am so curious to see where it goes now since the NHC and Derek and many others have been so wrong with forecasting it more than a day out. I still remember seeing Derek post Cat 4 going to South Florida, heck I even saw a pro met say it might head to Carolinas last week

You are talking a lot a smack against people who know a lot more then you or I do. I hope you can come back on Saturday and admit you were wrong.

[gboudx]

If you want to tear yourself away from the wobble-wars, here's another update from Lidner this morning.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1821958#p1821958

Oh boy... THAT'S a cheery update [sarcasm]...

The WORST thing about hurricanes (in my opinion) is the threat of tornados. You don't even have to be NEAR the storm to be threatened by them.

So... I'm on the southwest edge of Houston - Sharpstown to be exact - literally down 59 from Sugarland. I wonder what I will experience...

I posted some notes I took from Jeff's conference call as well, in that same thread. Jeff was talking fast and had a lot to say. Needless to say, he's busy and is very concerned about the impacts of Ike.

[KWT]

Hurakan, you can see the dry moat again in between the inner core and the outer deeper convection. I do wish it would decide what it wants!

[dixiebreeze]

A tiny bit N on the visable?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[MBryant]

Portastorm,

Among the many other more serious disruptions that Ike appears destined to cause this weekend - like the disruption of people's lives and their homes - such a path will likely bring postponement of the big football game between Texas and Arkansas on Saturday afternoon in Austin.

And many Friday Night Lights will be dark...

Could anything be more frivolous while awaiting the arrival of Ike?

There's just too much uncertainty in both track and intensity at three days out. This is an Emergency Manager's second worst nightmare. It's second only to being totally wrong with casualties.

[KWT]

Dixibreeze, looks like the overall motion of Ike is roughly 300 as the NHc states but the center is wobbling around within the broader circulation and outer eyewall thats starting to form.

[hial2]

Seems I wasnt rocking the NHC boat too much after all theorizing that it will not go to south Texas, but rather up to LA, so for all of those who thought Pro Met DeltaDog and I , as well as a couple others were insane for questioning the NHC and their track. Looks to be some people on edge now all over. Everyone wants to predict so bad, but these storms have their own steering patterns when the get large. I am so curious to see where it goes now since the NHC and Derek and many others have been so wrong with forecasting it more than a day out. I still remember seeing Derek post Cat 4 going to South Florida, heck I even saw a pro met say it might head to Carolinas last week

You are talking a lot a smack against people who know a lot more then you or I do. I hope you can come back on Saturday and admit you were wrong.

I have a strong feeling that if we keep bashing our friendly pro mets they will go away and lose their valuable input..they don't get paid for posting here..please be nice..

[Texas Snowman]

Now that latest vis sat shot looks like the fist of intensification!

Jeff Masters' blog update shows some interesting things.

First, he says:

"All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas."

Then he says that Ike will probably not be as bad as Carla, although it is possible, but it will be at least as bad as Celia which inflicted severe wind damage on Corpus and Port Aransas.

And he also gives Ike a 30 percent chance to hit as a Cat 3, a 20 percent chance to hit as a Cat 4 or 5.

[dixiebreeze]

Dixibreeze, looks like the overall motion of Ike is roughly 300 as the NHc states but the center is wobbling around within the broader circulation and outer eyewall thats starting to form.

Thanks for the reply KWT. The NHC does a remarkable job, but if I lived along the N gulf coast, I'd be extremely wary of the ridge weakness.

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows how the population is distributed between Corpus Christi and Galveston? In other words,how much people live in the areas decribed above.I know that the area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is not so populated,inlcuding Kingsville county that is almost lacking people.

[Sabanic]

Dixibreeze, looks like the overall motion of Ike is roughly 300 as the NHc states but the center is wobbling around within the broader circulation and outer eyewall thats starting to form.

Thanks for the reply KWT. The NHC does a remarkable job, but if I lived along the N gulf coast, I'd be extremely wary of the ridge weakness.

They do, and so do the pro mets here, but I have lost way too much in the last 30 years to hurricanes, as many have, and I will watch and be concerned for this area until he is definitely going elsewhere.