ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I dont know what to make of this loop, it appears overall structure is not doing so well at the end and I cant find a center to save my arse..

It appears whole system is drifting NE, not possible is it??

[sealbach]

Anyone knows how the population is distributed between Corpus Christi and Galveston? In other words,how much people live in the areas decribed above.I know that the area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is not so populated,inlcuding Kingsville county that is almost lacking people.

it's not too heavily populated, but still.

[Texas Snowman]

Small to medium sized towns, mainly, between Corpus and Houston. Places like Port O'Connor, Port Lavaca, Seadrift, etc.

But while the number of overall people affected would certainly be much lower (by a LF on the eastern end of San Antonio Bay as opposed to a hit closer to CC or Galveston/Houston) that's small comfort for those who live there as they contemplate a huge storm surge potentially destroying their homes and towns.

[Dean4Storms]

If anything with Ike the 3 day cone and forecast line has continuously been north of his realized actual track thus far.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml


Could it be that it is about to flip?

[Txdivermom]

Portastorm,

Among the many other more serious disruptions that Ike appears destined to cause this weekend - like the disruption of people's lives and their homes - such a path will likely bring postponement of the big football game between Texas and Arkansas on Saturday afternoon in Austin.

And many Friday Night Lights will be dark...

Could anything be more frivolous while awaiting the arrival of Ike?

There's just too much uncertainty in both track and intensity at three days out. This is an Emergency Manager's second worst nightmare. It's second only to being totally wrong with casualties.

OMG, it's just a comment. Nothing at all meant by it. A little jumpy, are you? Believe me when I say that I understand the seriousness. I live in Houston. I, however, always think a little levity helps a situation.

[Sanibel]

That Pacific trough is pretty obvious and moving through NW Nevada and California. If you time Ike's forward movement and the trough the trough doesn't get there in time for any substantial turn. But the wild card is still rightward in that synoptic.

[Red_Fish]

Small to medium sized towns, mainly, between Corpus and Houston. Places like Port O'Connor, Port Lavaca, Seadrift, etc.

But while the number of overall people affected would certainly be much lower (by a LF on the eastern end of San Antonio Bay as opposed to a hit closer to CC or Galveston/Houston) that's small comfort for those who live there as they contemplate a huge storm surge potentially destroying their homes and towns.

I agree! My parents live in Aransas Pass (pop < 10k); concern about aggregate welfare falls to the wayside when loved ones are in peril. Just my opinion.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be moving WNW to me, don't know what you folks are seeing.

[CoCo2]

That Pacific trough is pretty obvious and moving through NW Nevada and California. If you time Ike's forward movement and the trough the trough doesn't get there in time for any substantial turn. But the wild card is still rightward in that synoptic.

I'm sorry, but what does that mean? Thanks!

[Pebbles]

Seems I wasnt rocking the NHC boat too much after all theorizing that it will not go to south Texas, but rather up to LA, so for all of those who thought Pro Met DeltaDog and I , as well as a couple others were insane for questioning the NHC and their track. Looks to be some people on edge now all over. Everyone wants to predict so bad, but these storms have their own steering patterns when the get large. I am so curious to see where it goes now since the NHC and Derek and many others have been so wrong with forecasting it more than a day out. I still remember seeing Derek post Cat 4 going to South Florida, heck I even saw a pro met say it might head to Carolinas last week

You are talking a lot a smack against people who know a lot more then you or I do. I hope you can come back on Saturday and admit you were wrong.

You know it's posts like Inda-iwall's that really rattle my cage. I think people forget how dang complex predicting the weather is. Even with our leaps in technology, using technology to figure out weather still has a long way to go. And we've come a heck of a long way already! Problem is everyone want to know THE EXACT POINT to within a few miles of where a storm will make landfall 5 days out. This is SO VERY UNREALISTIC. Personally I think they get a landfall within that cone within 3 days it is a phenominal achievement.

For comparison I want you to take a tiny tiny pebble (like fish aquarium gravel) and throw it at a raging waterfall. Tell me where it's going to land at the bottom! No mistakes! Cant be off at all. Little hard huh!? Honestly ... that REALLY IS how difficult weather forecasting it. It has that many variables.

Seriously, people need to THINK before they get on their high horses throwing bashing comments out at the "professionals" for not getting it spot on all the time.

[Evac3]

It's starting to worry me (like some of you have said) that evacuations haven't been called yet here in SETX or in Galveston. I KNOW that if we (Southeast Texas) would not have had an evacuation last week, they would have already called it. They didn't hesitate to call the one for Gustav. As for now, it would seem if they do call for one, it would be for tomorrow morning, which wouldn't give everybody in Galveston, Houston, SETX, and SWLA enough time to all get out at once (unless it slows more.) And yes, you'd think we could just make our own personal decision to leave without being told to do so, but there are so many employers who threaten to fire any employee who leaves before mandatory is called. They are gambling with people's lives. Yes, it's very costly and it is definitely hard on those poor special needs people who, for some, don't have a choice in the matter... but as far as the general public is concerned, they can call for a mandatory so employees can leave if they need to... if they choose to stay, they can still choose to. They need to go ahead and call one asap to free those that want to leave. We all saw and will never forget what happened with Rita.

On another note, I've passed at least six houses here the past few days where they were cutting the rest of their trees down from around the house (the few actually left after Rita). There are no lines at the gas stations and people are just going about their dailies.

And... is this slowing still going to make a more upper Texas landfall possible? Or has something changed?

[Nexus]

Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track (12z)



About Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track

Daily Oceanic Heat Content or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) estimates are provided by Gustavo Goni at the Physical Oceanography Division of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory located in Miami, FL. The spatial grid spacing is 0.2 Latitude x 0.2 Longitude and the units of the estimates are given as kJ/cm^2. A detailed description of how the product is created, product archives and TCHP in other regions can be found at Gustavo's web discussing TCHP . Tropical cyclone forecasts, as described above, are plotted on values of ocean heat content for reference.

For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., >28.5C])and with intensities less than 80kt, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm having a tough time finding the center, but if anything it looks like it has gone a good deal north of the forecast path. These could simply be wobbles similar to what the NHC is saying. Basically, I see a SLOW NW movement that's north of the forecast path, but I could be wrong since we don't have a cleared out eye.

Edit: I changed satellite sources and now I can see Ike more closely following the track. He sure isn't in a hurry though.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Pebbles is spot on. Everyone's entitled to their own opinions but it's just unfair talking about the pro-mets in such manner. They're human, we're human, we all get things wrong sometimes but we correct them and we learn from them.

[Texas Snowman]

Evac3,

It is a complicated situation for Emergency Managers.

But they've got to hope and pray (and maybe keep their fingers crossed) that the UKMET track doesn't verify.

Now that would be very, very bad news for Galveston and Houston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm having a tough time finding the center, but if anything it looks like it has gone a good deal north of the forecast path. These could simply be wobbles similar to what the NHC is saying. Basically, I see a SLOW NW movement that's north of the forecast path, but I could be wrong since we don't have a cleared out eye.

I still smell a Louisiana storm.


Note- I am an amateur olfacotrist, and my nose is not endorsed by Storm2K.

I'm taking precautions on the better safe than sorry theory, and anyone ordered to evacuate would be stupid not to, but I smell Louisiana.

[KWT]

Very interesting look Ike has today, the structure seems to be stuck between having a small eyewall and a larger eyewall. You can see the dry moat inbetween the inner core and the outer convection.

Until that changes and sorts itself any strengthen will be only slow even if the pressure really does drop quickly still

[Stormcenter]

I'm having a tough time finding the center, but if anything it looks like it has gone a good deal north of the forecast path. These could simply be wobbles similar to what the NHC is saying. Basically, I see a SLOW NW movement that's north of the forecast path, but I could be wrong since we don't have a cleared out eye.

I still smell a Louisiana storm.


Note- I am an amateur olfacotrist, and my nose is not endorsed by Storm2K.

I'm taking precautions on the better safe than sorry theory, and anyone ordered to evacuate would be stupid not to, but I smell Louisiana.

Unfortunately I smell a Texas storm big time.

[MBryant]

Portastorm,

Among the many other more serious disruptions that Ike appears destined to cause this weekend - like the disruption of people's lives and their homes - such a path will likely bring postponement of the big football game between Texas and Arkansas on Saturday afternoon in Austin.

Could anything be more frivolous while awaiting the arrival of Ike?

There's just too much uncertainty in both track and intensity at three days out. This is an Emergency Manager's second worst nightmare. It's second only to being totally wrong with casualties.

OMG, it's just a comment. Nothing at all meant by it. A little jumpy, are you? Believe me when I say that I understand the seriousness. I live in Houston. I, however, always think a little levity helps a situation.

I don't know you, but I know several people who would be serious with a similar statement. I am nervous after a direct hit from Rita and Humberto and evacuating last week from Gustav, so you're right about me being being jumpy. I also know people who can't afford to evacuate again and might not.