ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HarlequinBoy]

Brownsville is gusting close to 60 mph.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I saw a car on the road in brownsville while doing a live shot what a moron that car is!!!!!!!!! I geuss someone forgot to tell him a hurricanes uh comin!!!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/near.cgi?lat=25.8&lon=-96.6

The above link shows the APRS stations (amateur radio operators mostly use it for positioning), but there are several WX stations providing very good WX info. The link above is at Dolly's current position (via 8am NHC advisory), so the details show compass bearing/distance from Dolly to those stations.

[HouTXmetro]

Yep i agree its nearly at category-2 now hurricanelandfall, only need a higher flight level wind reading in the NE and we will see this upgraded to category-2. As it is 95mph is still a pretty powerful category-1 hurricane.

95mph can't be used for the full advisories. So it will probably be at least 100mph for the 11am advisory. Unless for some reason it shows weakening.

Ah yes so it willbe the same strength as Erin then when it came into its 2nd landfall.
Well in that case yep looks like Dolly is going to make it to categroy 2 afteral in about a couple of hours time, should be right on the coast making landfall at that time.

wxman57, yep I agree the high is building back in and yep thats relaly back for SP Island as well as the highly populated region...ps on fox just saw some man on the beach he better get outta there!

Wasn't Erin just a Tropical storm at landfall?

[ronjon]

Tides rising in Port Isabel - about 3 feet above normal and climbing. Latest wind 35 kts sustained, gusting to 45 kts.

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8779770+Port+Isabel%2C+TX

[Texas Snowman]

With all of the talk of a Cat 2, Dolly actually isn't that far away from a Cat 3 pressure reading on the Saffir Simpson scale (964 mb).

Whether those winds are ever found or observed is doubtful, but it is a good thing this doesn't have another 12 hours over water.

[Derek Ortt]

they COULD keep this at 95 mph, since 80KT is about halfway between 90-95

kind of like last year when the Felix BT indicated a 115KT cat 3

[KWT]

72mph gust in Port Isabel via TWC.

Very impressive and so winds close to hurricane force now hitting there, I'd have thought it won't be long now till we get hurricane force gusts being recoded somewhere in S.Texas.

DESTRUCTION5, indeed its very interesting to see that, probably taking in some drier air from the land.

HouTXmetro, I mean Erin 1995.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thunder44, you stole my thinking...

This tells you the NHC expects this to become a Category 2 at 11 am. Probably because they expect the winds in the NE quadrant to reflect Category 2 in a little bit when the plane goes through...

12z models just came at about 2 minutes before 9am. They initialized at 80kts. So the only thing I'm certain off it is that it won't be 95mph at 11am.

How are you so certain? It is only 9:09am, which means we have over an hour and a half left until the 11am advisory. TONS can change in that timeframe, and it will only take a 1mph increase in wind-speed to become a Category 2.

[HarlequinBoy]

95mph can't be used for the full advisories. So it will probably be at least 100mph for the 11am advisory. Unless for some reason it shows weakening.

Ah yes so it willbe the same strength as Erin then when it came into its 2nd landfall.
Well in that case yep looks like Dolly is going to make it to categroy 2 afteral in about a couple of hours time, should be right on the coast making landfall at that time.

wxman57, yep I agree the high is building back in and yep thats relaly back for SP Island as well as the highly populated region...ps on fox just saw some man on the beach he better get outta there!

Wasn't Erin just a Tropical storm at landfall?

1995's Hurricane Erin....

[Thunder44]

12z models just came at about 2 minutes before 9am. They initialized at 80kts. So the only thing I'm certain off it is that it won't be 95mph at 11am.

How are you so certain? It is only 9:09am, which means we have over an hour and a half left until the 11am advisory. TONS can change in that timeframe, and it will only take a 1mph increase in wind-speed to become a Category 2.

I said I was only certain that it's NOT going to be 95mph.

[KWT]

Indeed Texas Snowman, the pressure is far lower then what you'd expect in a category-2, though at least now its upto 95mph which the data I've seen supports quite well.

Derek, yep i can see the west turn on radar as well, won't be long before the eyewall is getting inland.

[Category 5]

Powerlines down in Port Isabel via TWC.

[Chacor]

Latest TAF from Brownsville/SPI Intl:

FTUS44 KBRO 231100 AAA
TAFBRO
TAF AMD
KBRO 231310Z 231312 31030G44KT 3SM +RA BR BKN025 OVC035
TEMPO 1315 2SM +RA BR BKN009CB
FM1500 36035G50KT 3SM +RA BR SCT010 OVC025
TEMPO 1518 36045G65KT 1SM +RA OVC008
FM1800 28050G65KT 2SM +RA BR OVC020
FM2000 25035G50KT 2SM +RA BR OVC020
FM0000 23030G45KT 3SM RA BR OVC025
FM0600 18025G35KT 4SM RA BR OVC025=

[KWT]

Ah thats not good Category 5 but with gusts getting upto hurricane force now its hardly surprising sadly thats the case, I'd expect more power lines to be downed in S.Texas over the next 4-6hrs as the really strong winds head inland.

[Thunder44]

they COULD keep this at 95 mph, since 80KT is about halfway between 90-95

kind of like last year when the Felix BT indicated a 115KT cat 3

To be exact, 80kts = 92.0 mph. It's closer to 90mph than 95mph.

[Chacor]

Rio Grande Valley Intl Airport:
KHRL 231308Z 33031G41KT 5SM RA BR FEW007 BKN012 OVC040 24/22 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 32041/1306 P0001

[HarlequinBoy]

Looks like she drank a little Dry air in the N Quads...Lets see if it fills back in...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Yeah I've been watching the decrease in convection above the northern eyewall.

[ekal]

Raw packet: CW4827>APRS,TCPXX*,qAX,CWOP-3:@231313z2605.93N/09710.10W_331/037g058t097P1533h..b09900.DsVP

58 knot gust on S. Padre. Thnx Broward for that link.

[piggy]

Looking at the latest vis sat images eye really becoming wound up small!