ATL: IKE Discussion

[O Town]

[ROCK]

actually if its really slower and the low cuts off, it allows High over SE US to build back in and could lead to a more west track. If trough comes in in tact, then a slower path would mean more north.

Not sure how Houston Galv could be in play, but not SW LA.

What do you mean you're not sure?

It's quite evident how they could be in play.

Hey Scott, if you get the EURO before me ( I get it a little before 2pm) please post. I need to leave the office for awhile.....thanks bro.....BTW- your under a manadatory evac down there in Freeport....you wont have to chase this one very far at all....

[CoCo2]

The Gulf view gives you a good idea of how huge Ike is getting: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

Already starting to feel kinda of windy here in Plaquemines Parish. Winds coming from the South east.

[Senobia]

good to see there is some middle ground here. I know locally ANYONE evacuated by bus or plane there room and food and plane/bus ticket was paid for by SOMEONE other than the evacuee.(state or federal gvt.) Just wonder if paying to evacuate in future comes into play on calling LARGE scales Evacuations

What?

Evacuees are not being dropped off at hotels by buses and planes. They're taken to shelters. I think you got your lines crossed somewhere with this info.

[lrak]

Hey thanks for the FOE idea, only I can't see your post anymore

[Stormcenter]

The Gulf view gives you a good idea of how huge Ike is getting: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

I read where someone posted that Ike's circulation would take up the entire GOM.
I'm so sure that will happen but I guess anything is possible.

[lrak]

The Gulf view gives you a good idea of how huge Ike is getting: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

I read where someone posted that Ike's circulation would take up the entire GOM.
I'm so sure that will happen but I guess anything is possible.

Sure or not sure?

[jasons2k]

Well, since Monday (I think page 222 - easy to remember) I've been thinking/posting a prediction of Corpus to Sabine Pass. My thinking now is still the same, although I am somewhat confident in closing that gap some, say from Rockport to Galveston Bay, centered near Matagorda.

[rtd2]

good to see there is some middle ground here. I know locally ANYONE evacuated by bus or plane there room and food and plane/bus ticket was paid for by SOMEONE other than the evacuee.(state or federal gvt.) Just wonder if paying to evacuate in future comes into play on calling LARGE scales Evacuations

What?

Evacuees are not being dropped off at hotels by buses and planes. They're taken to shelters. I think you got your lines crossed somewhere with this info.

Some were yes but I have an aunt who along with nearly 40 others were NOT that were taken to the wingate in Jackson, ms sure this is not the norm but not the ONLY group either

[HURAKAN]

[rtd2]

The Gulf view gives you a good idea of how huge Ike is getting: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

I read where someone posted that Ike's circulation would take up the entire GOM.
I'm so sure that will happen but I guess anything is possible.

Sure or not sure?

thats was the Jeff guy from Texas...He's a pro met

[Senobia]

good to see there is some middle ground here. I know locally ANYONE evacuated by bus or plane there room and food and plane/bus ticket was paid for by SOMEONE other than the evacuee.(state or federal gvt.) Just wonder if paying to evacuate in future comes into play on calling LARGE scales Evacuations

What?

Evacuees are not being dropped off at hotels by buses and planes. They're taken to shelters. I think you got your lines crossed somewhere with this info.

Some were yes but I have an aunt who along with nearly 40 others were NOT that were taken to the wingate in Jackson, ms sure this is not the norm but not the ONLY group either

Well, in that case, I guess we should all move to Jackson!

{sings the Johnny/June song "I'm going to Jackson"}

[wxman57]

GFDL shifts to Houston with landfall Friday evening:

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

[Stormcenter]

The Gulf view gives you a good idea of how huge Ike is getting: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

I read where someone posted that Ike's circulation would take up the entire GOM.
I'm so sure that will happen but I guess anything is possible.

Sure or not sure?

I'm sorry. I meant to say "not so sure" he will get that large. We shall see.

[SMNederlandTX]

So, what does that mean? Is that the main model everyone goes by or is it just one of many?

GFDL shifts to Houston with landfall Friday evening:

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

[Stormcenter]

GFDL shifts to Houston with landfall Friday evening:

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

Landfall Friday evening?!?!?!? I guess he is going
to put the jet engines on soon.

[lrak]

GFDL shifts to Houston with landfall Friday evening:

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

Landfall Friday evening?!?!?!? I guess he is going
to put the jet engines on soon.

Alright...sorry SE guys but that means I get to go surfing instead of boarding UP.

[haml8]

wxman57... Is this a good run and initialization of the GFDL? Meaning, is this the one where the GIV data is loaded and all possible data has been included? Or is there a likleyhood that this will be dismissed as a bunk run?

[Aristotle]

So why does the storm appear to be weakening. It seems that the bursts of convection are going away. ??? clueless now. but good!

[Sabanic]

GFDL shifts to Houston with landfall Friday evening:

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

Landfall Friday evening?!?!?!? I guess he is going
to put the jet engines on soon.

Further and further North we go . . .