ATL: IKE Discussion

[Brent]

Cat 2!

[KWT]

Big bursting going on in that eastern eyewall once again, this may help to up the winds yet a little more, central pressure still about the same as last recon pass, not surprising as the sturcture hasn't improved since then really.

Given the huge size of Ike, if this does become a major hurricane we are looking at a very bad set-up even if it strikes a little down coast from Galveston, still would get good TS force winds given how far it goes out from the center.

[cycloneye]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[CajunMama]

Let's get back to ike please. If you want to talk about the conditions & reimbursements for evacing then take it to the chatroom or start a thread in talking tropics.

[lrak]

You are CHOOSING to drive several hundred miles away.
You are CHOOSING to stay at an expensive hotel.
You are CHOOSING to miss MORE work/pay by going that far away.

I'm not giving anyone here a bit of pity that want's a 'pretty vacation evacuation' on the governments dime. Your protecting your/your family's life, not going on a government paid field trip.

love it!

[KWT]

Wow...I wonder why they upgraded Ike, I don't see any winds higher then what was recorded last time unless I've missed something which I probably have

[cycloneye]

BAY CITY ISD: Closed Thursday and Friday
BOLING ISD: Closed Through Friday
BRAZOSPORT ISD: Closed Through Friday
EDNA ISD: Closed Through Friday
GANADO ISD: Closed Through Friday
HOUSTON ISD: All athletic events and field trips cancelled through Sunday
INDUSTRIAL ISD [WEB]: Closed Through Friday
MATAGORDA ISD: Closed Through Friday
PALACIOS ISD: No classes will be held Thursday through Monday. Staff will report on Monday.
VAN VLECK ISD: Closed Thursday and Friday

Hi I am very new. Here for good information! Helping anyway I can....

Welcome to storm2k.Good information that you posted about closures of schools.

[Stratusxpeye]

We have several flooded spots here in the Tampa Bay area due to IKE. High surge all the way up here. Wow. Shore Acres Is under water and several areas in pinellas and pasco.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008 ... tal+waters

[ALhurricane]

Wow...I wonder why they upgraded Ike, I don't see any winds higher then what was recorded last time unless I've missed something which I probably have

A dropsonde recorded 92kt sfc wind in the SE eyewall.

[Frank2]

The good news is the pressure is acutally 3 mb higher than this morning, so, at least that's something...

If the pressure was found to be 948 instead of 958, that would not be good...

[cycloneye]

Lets post all the evacuation information at the top thread of forum that is about that.

[KWT]

Wow...I wonder why they upgraded Ike, I don't see any winds higher then what was recorded last time unless I've missed something which I probably have

A dropsonde recorded 92kt sfc wind in the SE eyewall.

Ah ok, not all that surprising really given the explosive convection that has been taken place there in the last hour or so.

[gboudx]

Per cycloneye's request. From Jeff Lidner.

See below:

Mandatory Evac. for Matagorda County S of I-35.

Evacuations initiated for portions of the southeast Texas coastal
counties,

New information.
New evacuation information for coastal counties of southeast Texas.


Areas affected.
This statement recommends actions to be taken by persons in the
following counties or marine areas:
Brazoria, chambers, galveston, harris, jackson, liberty, matagorda.
Watches/warnings.
No additional hazards are in effect.
Precautionary/preparedness actions.
Current evacuation information:

Brazoria county:
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for zip zone 77541. A special
needs evacuation order is in place for the entire county. A voluntary
evacuation is in place for the entire county. Residents in the coastal
areas and those requiring transportation from brazoria county to bell
county must rush their preparations to completion.

Galveston county:
A voluntary evacuation will begin this afternoon for bolivar peninsula,
the west end of galveston island including jamaica beach, san leon,
bacliff, bayou vista, omega bay, tiki island, dickinson, kemah, and
clear lake shores. Citizens may also consider evacuating if they live in
low-lying areas subject to flooding or in mobile homes. If you decide to
evacuate, please remember to pack your disaster kit and important
papers.
The galveston-bolivar ferry will likely cease operations at 11 pm
thursday night

Jackson county:
A voluntary evacuation has been initiated for the entire county.

Matagorda county:
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for people who live and work
south of highway 35. This mandatory evacuation includes the communities
of palacios, ashby-buckeye, el maton, collegeport, matagorda, wadsworth,
sargent, cedar lane, chinquapin, tres palacios oaks, and tidewater oaks.
Blessing is also included in the mandatory evacuation even though it is
north of highway 35. The mandatory evacuation does not include bay city
or van vleck.

It is recommended you evacuate with your pets. Be sure to take a pet
carrier, leash, vaccination records, and food for your pet. If you
evacuate to a shelter, your pets will be boarded at a separate facility.

If you have no means of transportation or cannot find anyone to help you
evacuate and need assistance, you can contact 979-245-3056 or
979-244-5318.
Residents of matagorda county who need shelter can evacuate to the
shelter hub in austin. Signs in austin will direct evacuees to open
shelters.
Vehicles such as boats, 18 wheelers, trailers, or second cars can be
parked at the matagorda county fairgrounds. If you park your property
there, please be aware it is at your own risk.
The swing bridges at matagorda and sargent will be permanently closed at
6 pm Thursday which means you will not be able to pass over the bridges
past that time.

The evacuations in matagorda county must be completed by 6 pm thursday.
Public services will not be available in these areas after this time for
the duration of the event. Persons with questions about the evacuation
can call 979-244-5318.


Storm surge and storm tide.
The following tide levels are based on the current forecast track and
forecast intensity for hurricane ike. The levels are subject to change
based on any future changes in the forecast. If the track shifts
eastward, then these levels may be increased.
Tide levels will exceed 4 feet above mean lower low water along the
upper Texas coast beginning Friday morning. Maximum tide levels will
occur Friday night through Saturday morning.
Maximum water levels forecast: shoreline of matagorda bay - 12 to 18
feet coastal areas from matagorda to san luis pass - 7 to 10 feet
coastal areas of galveston and chambers counties - 4 to 8 feet shoreline
of galveston bay - 4 to 8 feet Winds.
Northeast

[Sanibel]

This is the intensity jump over the Loop Current that should translate to return to major hurricane as the track progresses. Ike was a warm-topped storm at high intensity. It is showing the same warm tops, so I assume it will kick out the dry air and go back to category 3/4 nearer to Texas. Here is that big historic storm setting up. It is still over us here in SW Florida for the second day!

[Category 5]

This is what troubles me the most.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

And that field could very well grow.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Something that I'm wondering is that both Gustav and Ike seem to be moving over the general area of the gulf where both Katrina AND Rita moved over three years ago. Katrina and Rita, of course, became monsters...but both Gustav and Ike seem to be having a harder time intensifying in this region.

Anyone, including pro mets, have any opinions on why this is?

[Praxus]

Latest GFDL run to Galveston is concerning. Its unfortunate the models are still swinging around so much.

[RL3AO]

Something that I'm wondering is that both Gustav and Ike seem to be moving over the general area of the gulf where both Katrina AND Rita moved over three years ago. Katrina and Rita, of course, became monsters...but both Gustav and Ike seem to be having a harder time intensifying in this region.

Anyone, including pro mets, have any opinions on why this is?

Waters were warmer in 2005 and the shear was basically none for Katrina and Rita.

[KWT]

It very likely will increase in size Category 5, already pretty large and even if the GFDL is mad with its track it will likely translate to hurricane force winds for Galveston if ther eis a slight right shift as thats in the NE quadrant.

Sanibel, nice blow up in the eastern eyewall though the western side looks a little weaker still, as you'd expect given all the factors.

[CrazyC83]

102 kt SFMR reported, not flagged...