ATL: IKE Discussion

[Disturbed]

...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NEW EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

Wonder when the counties to the east (Jefferson, Orange, Hardin, Jasper, Newton and Tyler) will start talking about evacuations?

[MBryant]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?


'I'll tell you what you do. You get on the gov. provided bus and you stay in a SHELTER, not a HOTEL. You take the MRE that the govt provides and the bottled water and you don't complain that it's not a hotel meal in a restaurant."

"Hurricane Allen put me and my family in a shelter and no complaints except they didn't have any A1 sauce for my steak.

Have any of you people ever camped or been w/o a TV for over 24hrs "

What bus? There are smaller towns in the Evacuation area without assistance available.

That's OK though. I fully expected this response since I used to lead the choir.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, nice blow up in the eastern eyewall though the western side looks a little weaker still, as you'd expect given all the factors.

The IR presentation makes me think Ike will do better than Gus in the Gulf. There's a better round center as well as the west heading that should keep the dry air from getting too far around it.

[lrak]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?


'I'll tell you what you do. You get on the gov. provided bus and you stay in a SHELTER, not a HOTEL. You take the MRE that the govt provides and the bottled water and you don't complain that it's not a hotel meal in a restaurant."

"Hurricane Allen put me and my family in a shelter and no complaints except they didn't have any A1 sauce for my steak.

Have any of you people ever camped or been w/o a TV for over 24hrs "

What bus? There are smaller towns in the Evacuation area without assistance available.

That's OK though. I fully expected this response since I used to lead the choir.

what foresight.

[carversteve]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?


'I'll tell you what you do. You get on the gov. provided bus and you stay in a SHELTER, not a HOTEL. You take the MRE that the govt provides and the bottled water and you don't complain that it's not a hotel meal in a restaurant."

"Hurricane Allen put me and my family in a shelter and no complaints except they didn't have any A1 sauce for my steak.

Have any of you people ever camped or been w/o a TV for over 24hrs "

What bus? There are smaller towns in the Evacuation area without assistance available.

That's OK though. I fully expected this response since I used to lead the choir.

Moderators said to take this to a different thread!!

[KWT]

Yeah true Sanibel I agree its clearly different from Gustav, though obviously not as favorable compared to the beasts of 05, conditions still look more then good enough for 3/4 it seems.

As for the SFMR, dropsonde has shown that this is very accurate for this hurricane right now, so no reason to doubt that this is at least at 90-95kts right now, indeed as well as the 102kts there was also a 102kts and given 92kts was found in the NE quadrant its not hard to believe there may be those winds in there.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah true Sanibel I agree its clearly different from Gustav, though obviously not as favorable compared to the beasts of 05, conditions still look more then good enough for 3/4 it seems.

As for the SFMR, dropsonde has shown that this is very accurate for this hurricane right now, so no reason to doubt that this is at least at 90-95kts right now, indeed as well as the 102kts there was also a 102kts and given 92kts was found in the NE quadrant its not hard to believe there may be those winds in there.

I'd say 95 kt as a blend of the data.

[gboudx]

Here's the latest from Lidner. Also posted in the TA Forum

Recon reports the pressure is now falling and down to 958mb. Flight level winds of 79kts outbound and 76kts in the SE eyewall were recorded. Ike is upgraded to a category 2 hurricane with 100mph sustained winds.

Plane measured TS force winds now extend outward 210 to 220 miles from the center.

Visible satellite shows a well defined eye within a small dense CDO…ring of convection has developed outside of the small CDO and this may be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Track:

12Z guidance is coming in and GFDL has shifted to W GLS Island…HWRF shifted about 60 miles NE up the coast to on top of Matagorda Bay. We see if this holds…if it does track may need a shift more to the east. The current very slow motion NW at 8mph is not working in our favor and this will delay the storm reaching the W Gulf and allow more time for the incoming trough to turn Ike rightward. GFS seems to have missed the trough depth in its 00Z and 06Z runs and is likely too far S (N CRP). We need Ike to get moving…and now.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed Crazy, will be interesting to see if the flight level winds do increase over the next few hours as the deep convection possibly sustains in the eastern eyewall.

[lisa0825]

UTMB in Galveston

http://www.utmb.edu/alert/#Weather

Alert Information
(posted Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2008, 12:48 p.m., jk)

Hurricane Ike update No. 3

Current predictions have Hurricane Ike making landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Freeport early Saturday. This makes it highly likely the Galveston area will begin experiencing tropical storm force winds or higher by early Friday morning. A storm surge is also expected. For that reason, we will go on emergency status at 7 p.m. Thursday evening. We are encouraging all employees and students to keep close tabs on the storm’s progress and stay tuned for web, email and First Call updates about UTMB operations. Review your personal emergency plan and, above all, do everything needed to stay safe and sound in the face of this dangerous and unpredictable storm.

A department directors/administrators meeting will take place in the Emergency Operations Center (Room 7.134-7.136, JSH) at 3:30 p.m. this afternoon.

Information specific to each area of the enterprise follows.

Dr. Joan Richardson
Mike Megna
Institutional Emergency Preparedness Officers

All employees – Nonessential employees will be released at the end of their shift Thursday. Remember to secure your computer, equipment and work area before you leave. If you have back-up tapes, CDs or DVDs that you want to secure off site, please bring them to Room 430 of the Administration Building no later than 5 p.m. Thursday. Review your department’s emergency plan, make sure your contact information is current, and talk with your supervisor.

All essential personnel should begin making preparations to report for emergency duty according to each area’s plan. If your responsibilities require you to be on campus, don’t forget to bring your orange card for parking.

Students – Students will be released by 5 p.m. Thursday. All Friday classes are canceled. Students should monitor the Alert site and First Call messages throughout the weekend for information about the resumption of classes.

Clinical staff – Clinics in Galveston County and other affected areas will be closed Friday. Clinic staff should check with their supervisor before making plans to leave or return. No elective surgeries will take place Friday. Beginning at noon today, we will no longer accept transfers from other hospitals. We will also begin discharging patients who are able to return home. We have no plans to evacuate the hospital.

Essential clinical personnel on the 7 p.m. Thursday shift should report for work prepared to stay and serve throughout the duration of the storm. Essential personnel working the Friday morning shift should plan on coming in Thursday evening – once they’ve had a chance to secure their property and gather necessary belongings – and be prepared to stay and serve throughout the duration of the storm.

Researchers – Dry ice has been delivered to campus and will be distributed at designated locations by noon tomorrow. A schedule will be posted. Researchers should load their freezers in anticipation of possible power outages. They should also work with ARC staff to consolidate their animals in the central facility. The containment laboratories have resumed their phased shutdown process. No new experiments have been initiated since Monday.

Logistics – We will begin locking down buildings Thursday afternoon and expect the campus to be 100 percent secure by midnight.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[RL3AO]

Is that really a second eyewall, or just dry air entrainment?

[haml8]

Here's the latest from Lidner. Also posted in the TA Forum

Recon reports the pressure is now falling and down to 958mb. Flight level winds of 79kts outbound and 76kts in the SE eyewall were recorded. Ike is upgraded to a category 2 hurricane with 100mph sustained winds.

Plane measured TS force winds now extend outward 210 to 220 miles from the center.

Visible satellite shows a well defined eye within a small dense CDO…ring of convection has developed outside of the small CDO and this may be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Track:

12Z guidance is coming in and GFDL has shifted to W GLS Island…HWRF shifted about 60 miles NE up the coast to on top of Matagorda Bay. We see if this holds…if it does track may need a shift more to the east. The current very slow motion NW at 8mph is not working in our favor and this will delay the storm reaching the W Gulf and allow more time for the incoming trough to turn Ike rightward. GFS seems to have missed the trough depth in its 00Z and 06Z runs and is likely too far S (N CRP). We need Ike to get moving…and now.

Maybe it is the way I am reading it, but his reports seem to have become more concise, direct (which they usually are anyway) and concerned/grave. (I know not a good word to use) he does seem really concerned about the velocity of Ike.

[gboudx]

Maybe it is the way I am reading it, but his reports seem to have become more concise, direct (which they usually are anyway) and concerned/grave. (I know not a good word to use) he does seem really concerned about the velocity of Ike.

In his conference call this morning, he sounded very concerned. I think you are reading it right.

[Sabanic]

Here's the latest from Lidner. Also posted in the TA Forum

Recon reports the pressure is now falling and down to 958mb. Flight level winds of 79kts outbound and 76kts in the SE eyewall were recorded. Ike is upgraded to a category 2 hurricane with 100mph sustained winds.

Plane measured TS force winds now extend outward 210 to 220 miles from the center.

Visible satellite shows a well defined eye within a small dense CDO…ring of convection has developed outside of the small CDO and this may be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Track:

12Z guidance is coming in and GFDL has shifted to W GLS Island…HWRF shifted about 60 miles NE up the coast to on top of Matagorda Bay. We see if this holds…if it does track may need a shift more to the east. The current very slow motion NW at 8mph is not working in our favor and this will delay the storm reaching the W Gulf and allow more time for the incoming trough to turn Ike rightward. GFS seems to have missed the trough depth in its 00Z and 06Z runs and is likely too far S (N CRP). We need Ike to get moving…and now.

Maybe it is the way I am reading it, but his reports seem to have become more concise, direct (which they usually are anyway) and concerned/grave. (I know not a good word to use) he does seem really concerned about the velocity of Ike.

This track is moving northward more and more. LA keep your eyes peeled

[baitism]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

Looks like Ike's outflow is about to end his current dry air problems.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike is on forecast points? I respectfully disagree.

Ike without question is slightly North and east of the forecast points...has been since even before he left Cuba.


Also note the storm is moving fairly slower then forecasted...and has been since he left Cuba.

[CronkPSU]

what consequences/what impact is there to the storm if that large outer eyewall takes over...obviously the wind field is spread out but doesn't it make it less likely the storm will intensify much past border line cat 3?

[Sabanic]

Ike is on forecast points? I respectfully disagree.

Ike without question is slightly North and east of the forecast points...has been since even before he left Cuba.

That would be correct, and the forecast path, as it should, adjusts at the next advisory to his new position.

[HouTXmetro]

what consequences/what impact is there to the storm if that large outer eyewall takes over...obviously the wind field is spread out but doesn't it make it less likely the storm will intensify much past border line cat 3?

I think you are correct.

[Lowpressure]

what consequences/what impact is there to the storm if that large outer eyewall takes over...obviously the wind field is spread out but doesn't it make it less likely the storm will intensify much past border line cat 3?

I am not so certain anyone is really sure what Ike is doing with regards to the core area. It has been akward since his approach to Cuba. He is getting stronger for sure but the core issue is anyones guess right now. I just do not think we will see a bombing hurricane, but a steadily intensifying one instead. This may prove worse in the long run.