ATL: IKE Discussion

[texbosoxfan]

One of the first places they said Rita would hit, after getting into the gulf, was Matogorda ( I probably spelled that wrong )....then she shifted east. And I believe that was around 3 days before landfall, maybe 4.

Rita didn't shift until about 3 hours before landfall.

[Pebbles]

WOW I just used that recon overlay for the first time.. that's phenominal! I think I'm in love!

Pojo, if you see this.. please pass on that whoever implimented this proggie on google earth has my undying devotion! Never thought my recon addiction could be taken to another whole new level.

Its one of our Wx officers that wrote the software to decode and track recon.

*falls down and worships the Wx officers feet*

Now on the serious side how do you put a sat layer under the recon graphics? Anyone.. anyone?
Edit: DOYE.. i didn't read the thread enough.. my bad.. got the info

[SMNederlandTX]

3 days out, almost the same as Ike....forecast path wise anyways

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

[stormywaves]

StormyWaves thanks for that great post!

Thanks

[dixiebreeze]

Quikscat:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=42024

[KatDaddy]

From the HPC Discussion just released.

Hmmmm. This answer my question and now I see exactly where Jeff Linderman coming from.

HANDLING OF HURCN IKE AS IT COMES INLAND ON THE TX COAST REMAINS A
PROBLEMS. DEEP BUT SEPARATED SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY COMING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE ITS NRN PORTION SHORTWAVE EXIT ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS SAT WHILE WWD THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LINGERS BEHIND. WEST PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AND EAST OF APPROACHING IKE WEAKENS AN
ERODES ON THE WEST SIDE OPENING AN EXIT FOR IKE TO MOVE WITH A
MORE NWD COMPONENT. CMC WITH A MORE NORTH LANDFALL QUICKLY ELECTS
IKE NWD. GFS SERIES WITH A MORE SRLY APPROACH OF IKE BRING IT NW
UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THEN SLOWLY NWD EVENTUALLY DECAYING IN
KS/NB BY MID WEEK. NOGAPS SIMILAR. UKMET AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN
TAKE IKE TO NERN TX/AR. ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST OF ALL MODELS WITH
THE SRN PORTION OF ITS MEAN AMPLIFYING TROF CAPTURING IKE AND
COMING ACROSS EWD AS A STRONG AMPLIFIED SHORT TROF TO THE EAST
COAST MID WEEK.

[SMNederlandTX]

Rita shifted more than once....like i said, one point they were saying Matagorda...then it seemed like with every forecast after that, just about, she kept shifting more east.

One of the first places they said Rita would hit, after getting into the gulf, was Matogorda ( I probably spelled that wrong )....then she shifted east. And I believe that was around 3 days before landfall, maybe 4.

Rita didn't shift until about 3 hours before landfall.

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy pressure 180 miles S of Southwest Pass, LA:

Conditions at 42001 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.6 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
1:50 pm NE ( 47 deg ) 23.5 kts
1:40 pm NE ( 48 deg ) 26.6 kts
1:30 pm NNE ( 29 deg ) 23.9 kts
1:20 pm NNE ( 30 deg ) 23.5 kts
1:10 pm NNE ( 33 deg ) 24.5 kts
1:00 pm NE ( 39 deg ) 23.9 kts

[cycloneye]

Last pass of plane found lowest pressure at 955 mbs a drop of three mbs from 2 PM Advisory.

[Starburst]

CORPUS CHRISTI - The Department of Public Safety in Corpus Christi says an evacuation lane is opening along the shoulder of North Interstate 37.

[Portastorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-wv.html

Look at ULL near central Cali, does it seperate itself from the trough making the trough come in more shallow or does it stay intact and erode ridge of HP, to me it looks iffy, but could see that cold be seperating itself.

Props to you -- dwg71 -- for bringing this up! Very important question that could have huge implications down the road. I am eager to see a pro met respond.

[jasons2k]

C'mon...you and I know, the forecast has been pretty straight forward since Monday...right?

Just to set the record straight, some of us have been calling for the same landfall since Monday too.

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy 207 miles east of Brownsville, Texas:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 15 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 107 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 94.3 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
1:50 pm ENE ( 59 deg ) 12.4 kts
1:40 pm NE ( 53 deg ) 12.4 kts
1:30 pm NE ( 50 deg ) 12.6 kts
1:20 pm NE ( 55 deg ) 13.4 kts
1:10 pm NE ( 51 deg ) 13.4 kts
1:00 pm NE ( 55 deg ) 12.6 kts

[Stormcenter]

Cant help but see the Rita II model shuffle. The W Coast trough looks to be moving toward the SW US much fast than IKE moving WNW toward Texas. To me, it would seem to shove IKE N much sooner into Central LA. Just my take on the current situation.

Have to agree, katdaddy.

Come now guys let's be realistic here.

[dixiebreeze]

Last pass of plane found lowest pressure at 955 mbs a drop of three mbs from 2 PM Advisory.

Maybe a monster in the making, Luis.

[Portastorm]

Regarding the issue of the strength of the incoming trough, here's a snippet of what HPC said in their afternoon issuance:

"HANDLING OF HURCN IKE AS IT COMES INLAND ON THE TX COAST REMAINS A
PROBLEMS. DEEP BUT SEPARATED SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY COMING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE ITS NRN PORTION SHORTWAVE EXIT ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS SAT WHILE WWD THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LINGERS BEHIND. "

[dwg71]

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151325.shtml?3day#contents[/img]

[stormy1970al]

Are those outer bands from Ike hitting the Gulf Coast?
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

If that is the case this is one big storm.

[Nederlander]

Cant help but see the Rita II model shuffle. The W Coast trough looks to be moving toward the SW US much fast than IKE moving WNW toward Texas. To me, it would seem to shove IKE N much sooner into Central LA. Just my take on the current situation.

Have to agree, katdaddy.

Come now guys let's be realistic here.

i dont think anyone is being unrealistic stormcenter... this is a very tough storm to nail down.. our local met said something to the effect of it being the toughest hurricane he's dealt with in 20+ years.... remember stormcenter, this is exactly what we saw with rita this far out...

[SoupBone]

Cant help but see the Rita II model shuffle. The W Coast trough looks to be moving toward the SW US much fast than IKE moving WNW toward Texas. To me, it would seem to shove IKE N much sooner into Central LA. Just my take on the current situation.

Have to agree, katdaddy.

Come now guys let's be realistic here.

I think it's a valid question although i don't think it will happen at all.