ATL: IKE Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

Are those outer bands from Ike hitting the Gulf Coast?
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

They are hitting us right here.

[JTD]

At this point in it's life Katrina had a minimum central pressure of 949. Ike has a minium central pressure extrapolated of 955. Very concerning. With a MCP of 955 and falling, I would expect a category 3 storm shortly if not higher. Once the storm (if it can) deals with it's organizational and dry air issues, I fully expect it to take off to cat 4 strength unfortunately at the minimum.

I certainly do hope that mandatory evacs for Texas come soon.

[Air Force Met]

One of the first places they said Rita would hit, after getting into the gulf, was Matogorda ( I probably spelled that wrong )....then she shifted east. And I believe that was around 3 days before landfall, maybe 4.

Rita didn't shift until about 3 hours before landfall.

Wrong. Rita starting shifting from day 4. She continued to shift until landfall.

[dwg71]

Look at Rita forecast for the same time as now and they are almost identical. Its a valid comparison...

[caneman]

And some have been calling for an even more northerly shift perhaps into Louisiana for just as long. we shall see who and which model verifies. Juist because some have called it since Monday like myself doesn't mean they will be right. Time will tell. If you are in the cone , be prepared.

[JTD]

Would be good if Ike did hit where Rita did exactly. Away from the densely populated areas.

[cycloneye]

At this point in it's life Katrina had a minimum central pressure of 949. Ike has a minium central pressure extrapolated of 955. Very concerning. With a MCP of 955 and falling, I would expect a category 3 storm shortly if not higher. Once the storm (if it can) deals with it's organizational and dry air issues, I fully expect it to take off to cat 4 strength unfortunately at the minimum.

I certainly do hope that mandatory evacs for Texas come soon.

Check the thread at the top of this forum,as all the information about evacuations,school closings etc is being posted.

[Tireman4]

Here is a question. Are the same dynamics that were part of the Rita equation the same with Ike? The reason why I ask is that in my field (History), the old cliche is "History always repeats itself". That is not necessarily true. You have similarities, but not exact setups. The results are not the same. So hence my question.

[Wx_Warrior]

Least populated area? Rita????



Get real people.

[Lowpressure]

Here is a question. Are the same dynamics that were part of the Rita equation the same with Ike? The reason why I ask is that in my field (History), the old cliche is "History always repeats itself". That is not necessarily true. You have similarities, but not exact setups. The results are not the same. So hence my question.

Maybe this helps some.
From the NHC season archieves
Even more rapid strengthening ensued. Rita proceeded westward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 hurricane early on 21 September. Throughout most of the remainder of that day, Rita quickly intensified over the very warm waters of the Loop Current and within an environment of very weak vertical wind shear, reaching an intensity of 145 kt by 1800 UTC. Rita had strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 36 h. It remained at Category 5 strength for about the next 18 h, reaching its estimated peak intensity of 155 kt by 0300 UTC 22 September while located about 270 n mi south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. During that time it also turned toward the west-northwest around the western extent of the middle- to upper-tropospheric ridge centered over the southeastern United States.

The inner eyewall deteriorated later on 22 September and Rita abruptly weakened to Category 4 strength with 125 kt maximum winds by 1800 UTC that day. By early on 23 September a new, outer eyewall had consolidated and the hurricane had grown in size. However, Rita did not re-intensify following the structural changes. Due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and slightly cooler waters, steady weakening continued on 23 September. Rita rounded the western periphery of the deep-layer ridge and turned toward the northwest that day, with a slight increase in forward speed from about 8 to about 10 kt. It weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 110 kt maximum winds by 1800 UTC 23 September about 140 n mi southeast of Sabine Pass at the Texas/Louisiana border. Rita maintained Category 3 status up to the time of landfall of the center, which occurred at 0740 UTC 24 September with an estimated intensity of 100 kt, in extreme southwestern Louisiana just west of Johnson’s Bayou and just east of Sabine Pass.

[tolakram]

[SMNederlandTX]

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

[Sabanic]

Look at Rita forecast for the same time as now and they are almost identical. Its a valid comparison...

Different synoptics here though

[rtd2]

At this point in it's life Katrina had a minimum central pressure of 949. Ike has a minium central pressure extrapolated of 955. Very concerning. With a MCP of 955 and falling, I would expect a category 3 storm shortly if not higher. Once the storm (if it can) deals with it's organizational and dry air issues, I fully expect it to take off to cat 4 strength unfortunately at the minimum.

I certainly do hope that mandatory evacs for Texas come soon.

unless theres a BIG change look for them by 8am tommorow imho

[Nederlander]

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

because Gustav was a flop... if models trend northward, they will

[JTD]

[quote="SMNederlandTX"]What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?![/quote

Remember Rita was literally right after Katrina and people were shell-shocked and not willing to take any chances. That feeling has faded.

[tolakram]

[Jagno]

Would be good if Ike did hit where Rita did exactly. Away from the densely populated areas.

You are one insensitive and uninformed person. I lost my home in Rita. I witnessed many injuries in Rita. I, along with many posters from Baton Rouge to Beaumont can tell you that Rita hit very populated areas. What must be going through your head to even post something like that? Populated like Houston or Houma, makes no difference........................the lives that are affected do.

[Stormcenter]

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

Who knows.

Maybe they've been assured by the NHC that Ike is not going to your area.

[BigB0882]

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

because Gustav was a flop... if models trend northward, they will

What does that mean? Gustav was a flop? Why, because 2000 people didn't drown in New Orleans? I'm not trying to bite your head off but this I've seen this from so many people. Ask anyone in Baton Rouge and they will tell you how very real Gustav was.