ATL: IKE Discussion

[gubyw1]

A ship 252 nm (27.90 -86.70) from Ike is reporting 40 kt sustained winds. Winds reach way out to the north.

[texbosoxfan]

One of the first places they said Rita would hit, after getting into the gulf, was Matogorda ( I probably spelled that wrong )....then she shifted east. And I believe that was around 3 days before landfall, maybe 4.

Rita didn't shift until about 3 hours before landfall.

Wrong. Rita starting shifting from day 4. She continued to shift until landfall.

my bad...I thought original post was referring to the last minute shift into Beaumont

[CronkPSU]

hate to say it but that pretty much the definition of the fist intensification photo

[Lowpressure]

Would be good if Ike did hit where Rita did exactly. Away from the densely populated areas.

You are one insensitive and uninformed person. I lost my home in Rita. I witnessed many injuries in Rita. I, along with many posters from Baton Rouge to Beaumont can tell you that Rita hit very populated areas. What must be going through your head to even post something like that? Populated like Houston or Houma, makes no difference........................the lives that are affected do.

Before anymore feelings get hurt. Please be responsible when posting. Mods have already come on to remind us of others experiences and feelings. Please post responsibly! There is no real good scenario here short of dissapation.

[Portastorm]

Looks like that trough is still digging south:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

[SMNederlandTX]

People seem to think if a storm doesn't kill enough people and do enough damage, then it was a flop. Storms affect many people in many different ways. Luckily, out of all the storms I have been through, I have experienced no personal damage or suffering. But I know people who have and they don't live very far from me.

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

because Gustav was a flop... if models trend northward, they will

What does that mean? Gustav was a flop? Why, because 2000 people didn't drown in New Orleans? I'm not trying to bite your head off but this I've seen this from so many people. Ask anyone in Baton Rouge and they will tell you how very real Gustav was.

[Stormcenter]

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

because Gustav was a flop... if models trend northward, they will

What does that mean? Gustav was a flop? Why, because 2000 people didn't drown in New Orleans? I'm not trying to bite your head off but this I've seen this from so many people. Ask anyone in Baton Rouge and they will tell you how very real Gustav was.

Gustav was a flop!?!?!?!?!?!? Why don't you tell that to the folks in LA. who still
don't have power and see what they tell you.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like that trough is still digging south:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

It should be...why do mention it?

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB starting to Bite on the Galveston Idea...Says if not a direct hit it will still Rival Alicia..

[Lowpressure]

Looks like that trough is still digging south:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

It should be...why do mention it?

Many fuses way too short- checking out for a while.

[Senobia]

Would be good if Ike did hit where Rita did exactly. Away from the densely populated areas.

You are one insensitive and uninformed person.

I can't even fathom somebody saying this. Jagno, I'm with you. I know what Rita was. Far, far too many of us do.

[RainWind]

Gustav was not a "flop" by some standards! For those of us who went days without power, etc., it certainly did not feel like it. If you are contending that it was a flop because of dry air and shear and never met the forecasted intensity models, then, yes, I would be glad to call it a flop in that respect, but don't underestimate the power of a Cat 2. RW

[RL3AO]

Lets see if a CDO can form and get rid of this dry air slot.

[CoCo2]

Would be good if Ike did hit where Rita did exactly. Away from the densely populated areas.

You are one insensitive and uninformed person. I lost my home in Rita. I witnessed many injuries in Rita. I, along with many posters from Baton Rouge to Beaumont can tell you that Rita hit very populated areas. What must be going through your head to even post something like that? Populated like Houston or Houma, makes no difference........................the lives that are affected do.

Boy is that right! I live on the southeast coast of Louisiana and Hurricane Rita flooded what Hurricane Katrina flooded only a month before.

[dwg71]

5 hour movement 29 minutes north and 37 minutes west.

[Senobia]

Maybe they've been assured by the NHC that Ike is not going to your area.

If that's the case, I wish they would kindly pass on those reassurances.

[jasons2k]

Let's stay focused on IKE please.

[SMNederlandTX]

Our area is in the cone....barely, but still in it nonetheless.

What I don't understand is why they have not issued evacuations for our area. When Rita was suppose to hit Matagorda they issued voluntary evacuations 3 days out....I remember because it was 2 days before my son's birthday, and it was a wednesday....It actually hit the morning after his birthday...That's one birthday he will never forget!

Now Ike is supposedly going to hit Matagorda and nothing?!?!?!?!?!

Who knows.

Maybe they've been assured by the NHC that Ike is not going to your area.

[ak8s]

People~! Chill! The evacuation for the Beaumont/Port Arthur area was a flop. That is what the original poster meant when answer the question as to why they haven't called for an evacuation of our area yet. Mass evacuation here and nothing but a light sprinkle. THAT is what was a flop. Gustav was very real and affected many. Nobody is trying to downplay that.

[Portastorm]

Looks like that trough is still digging south:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

It should be...why do mention it?

Well ... a page or two ago, I posted a snippet from HPC about the trough in the west possibly cutting off in its southern portion. Dwg71 also raised the same issue. If that happens, there is some question about the strength of the trough as it swings through the central U.S. Accordingly, it may affect how much of the ridge erodes on the western portion and consequently how quickly Ike gets picked up.

I'm aware of the 18z model trend and how everyone seems to have scoffed at the 12z GFS for being so far "south." If the trough does cut off its southern portion maybe that 12z GFS wasn't so "crazy." But I'm no pro met and would love to see their take on this.