ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Category 5]

I hope this things get ashore soon. People did not Prepare for a strong Cat 2 weak Cat 3

100mph is a minimal cat 2. Did they revise the SS scaleor something?

[KWT]

Well just come back and see this has made it to category-2, hardly surprising giventhe pressure and radar estimate.

Seems like a lot of people have underestimated Dolly from what I've heard, in Mexio people have had to be rescued sadly.

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, radar now showing western eyewall nearly touching the coastline. Looks like SPI will take the southern half of the eye, keeping them in the offshore flow.

[KWT]

Also looks like its heading WNW again, eye should finally be in land in the next 90 mins at the latest I reckon, western eyewall heading towards land now.

Now as strong as Erin 1995 FWIW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 11 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[bob rulz]

I hope this things get ashore soon. People did not Prepare for a strong Cat 2 weak Cat 3

100mph is a minimal cat 2. Did they revise the SS scaleor something?

It's probably continued to intensify since the last advisory. Although I doubt it has enough time to reach cat3, it could reach 110mph.

[KWT]

The good news is that these northerly jogs has meant that Brownsville should not get the eyewall like what was firstly feared, still probably going to get gusts close to hurricane force I bet.

IMO 100mph is pretty reasonable, I don't think its going to strengthen anymore withthe eyewall pretty much close to land.

[Chacor]

KHRL 231552Z 32035G51KT 1 1/4SM RA BR BKN009 OVC020 24/23 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 32051/1543 SLP984 P0047 T02390228


ob KBRO 231557Z 28037G56KT 1 3/4SM RA BR BKN012 OVC017 24/23 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 28050/1557 P0000

[Sanibel]

TWC says data confirms weakening.

Inner eyewall still offshore.

[LAwxrgal]

Dolly has likely peaked in intensity and "should" be making landfall soon.

[Tireman4]

Houston Metroplex and Galveston are not getting near the rain that we need. The little amount around 430am helped, but just a bandaid on a hatchet wound. There seems to be capping in place not allowing showers to come ashore.

Give it time. There are numerous blobs out in the Gulf near us.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM DOLLY WILL WORK THEIR WAY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WHERE ANY RAIN BAND TRAINING SETS UP. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 10. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS...HIGH
SEAS AND SURF. RECREATIONAL BOATING AND SWIMMING IN THE COASTAL
WATERS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED

[swimaster20]

TWC says data confirms weakening.

Inner eyewall still offshore.

Although I agree it looks like Dolly has peaked, TWC said the pressure was up to 966, but the latest recon I saw (10:35) said that the pressure was 962. Also, I don't know if y'all caught it in the position estimate, but Dolly moved due north between the 10 AM advisory and the 11 AM position estimate.

[Category 5]

South Padre Island and Port Isabel are going to get it first.

[HarlequinBoy]

TWC says data confirms weakening.

Inner eyewall still offshore.

Although I agree it looks like Dolly has peaked, TWC said the pressure was up to 966, but the latest recon I saw (10:35) said that the pressure was 962.

I don't think she's weakening yet, holding steady imo.

[lrak]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 11 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTH happen, this was suppose to go in this morning. And Brownsville was its target, has something new developed, do I need to get my butt home and start boarding up?

I saw "this should be making landfall soon" at 5am this morning...what time frame means "soon?"

[lrak]

I live at 27.7N 97.5W and those 11am coordinates are not that far away

[MiamiensisWx]

I actually think it's intensifying. Eyewall convection is strengthening in most quadrants, and structure has been improving in latest radar frames. The TC actually looks much better now than the preceding 1.5 hours. Winds could mix more efficiently to the surface with the strengthening convection on the W side (W eyewall). Frictional convergence may be contributing to the development of additional convection on the west side. It looks like Dolly will come in as a strengthening Cat 2...

[JPmia]

I hope this things get ashore soon. People did not Prepare for a strong Cat 2 weak Cat 3

people should always prepare for one category more than forecast because you never no

Jim Cantore said alot of people on S. Padre didnt even board up and the police had to chase them away from the beaches.

Well if they didn't board up or put shutters up, they will be in for a wild ride in their homes..and they better have their fingers crossed that no debris hits their windows. Most windows and buildings can withstand the strength of this storm, except for any wind driven debris.

[loro-rojo]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 11 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTH happen, this was suppose to go in this morning. And Brownsville was its target, has something new developed, do I need to get my butt home and start boarding up?

I saw "this should be making landfall soon" at 5am this morning...what time frame means "soon?"

I think it will make landfall within the next 90 minutes. Corpus Christi is probably in the clear in regards to hurricane force winds.

[Chacor]

Port Isabel:

ob KPIL 231603Z AUTO 32050G61KT 1/2SM +RA BKN007 OVC014 26/ A2926 RMK AO2 PK WND 32061/1603 PRESFR P0008