ATL: IKE Discussion

[rtd2]

Link for Galv evac?

hadnt been provided yet....may come @6pm cdt...I honestly was looking for 8am tommorow

[Houstonia]

again anyone can take this with a grain of salt but I have a brother that works with city of houston and he passed this info to me. they are still meeting right now to finalize the plan.

if I am wrong feel free to chew me up.

Ok, I'll bite. Any word on Harris County evacs, if any?

Harris county officials don't want to call for evacs and I completely agree with them:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/5994163.html

Harris County's Emmett says no evacuation yet
By TERRI LANGFORD Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 10, 2008, 3:52PM

Hurricane Ike's final touchdown is proving a nail-biter for residents and officials along the Texas coastline.

And for a region already fatigued by the number of alerts and near misses of storms steaming into the Gulf of Mexico, that's a good thing because more people in the Galveston and Houston area are paying closer attention.

"I think with each little ratchet up in our direction, people are going 'That's going to change things,' " Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said.

By late afternoon today, there were no plans to call for either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation, he said.

"We'll look at it this evening and see," Emmett said. "At this point we don't anticipate it (evacuations)."

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

[MBryant]

Yep cycloneye a pressure pass of 950mbs so pressure still slowly dropping though I doubt winds will really rise all that much in comprasion to the pressure because of the double eyewall structure.

The size of Ike however is whats got to be concerning to those in power and the secondary eyewall feature, if it remains could cause huge issues for people who think they are decently far away from the strongest winds...

Why wouldn't the wind speed pick up as Ike bumps up against the ridge weakness since it should tighten the millibars (isobars)?.

[vaffie]

Not the most typical local weather forecast...
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-95.3867

[vaffie]

Houston's pressure has dipped below 1012 mb for the first time in a while. A distant sign of things to come.

[rtd2]

again anyone can take this with a grain of salt but I have a brother that works with city of houston and he passed this info to me. they are still meeting right now to finalize the plan.

if I am wrong feel free to chew me up.

Ok, I'll bite. Any word on Harris County evacs, if any?

Harris county officials don't want to call for evacs and I completely agree with them:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/5994163.html

Harris County's Emmett says no evacuation yet
By TERRI LANGFORD Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 10, 2008, 3:52PM

Hurricane Ike's final touchdown is proving a nail-biter for residents and officials along the Texas coastline.

And for a region already fatigued by the number of alerts and near misses of storms steaming into the Gulf of Mexico, that's a good thing because more people in the Galveston and Houston area are paying closer attention.

"I think with each little ratchet up in our direction, people are going 'That's going to change things,' " Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said.

By late afternoon today, there were no plans to call for either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation, he said.

"We'll look at it this evening and see," Emmett said. "At this point we don't anticipate it (evacuations)."

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

Wow thats is a very level headed statement.....no hype whatsoever!

[Aristotle]

He's already a Cat 2 and has hundreds of miles of hot water to pass over. What makes you say it won't hit major status again?

Insanity. The only thing keep this in check is the dry air and the erwc. Otherwise Poof!

Its a cat 2 in name, but recon doesnt show winds that strong in any recent passes.[/quote]

Disagree dwg71. What I think you mean is that it's not a cat 2 according to winds. Obviously there are other factors that go into making a Hurc a certain intensity. Wind is not the only consideration. How about structure and environment?
Am I close?[/quote]

Saffir-Simpson is based solely on WIND... not pressure... just wind[/quote]

Wow! makes sense. I conceed the point!

[Wx_Warrior]

This post may get deleted but enough with : LOOKOUT TEXAS

I think we are agree Texas will likely be the landfall.

Post something useful and support it with either links or confirmation please! No time for fun and games anymore.

[survived alica]

according to my source, that tune is about to change pretty soon here. a very big conference call going on right now.

again anyone can take this with a grain of salt but I have a brother that works with city of houston and he passed this info to me. they are still meeting right now to finalize the plan.

if I am wrong feel free to chew me up.

Ok, I'll bite. Any word on Harris County evacs, if any?

Harris county officials don't want to call for evacs and I completely agree with them:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/5994163.html

Harris County's Emmett says no evacuation yet
By TERRI LANGFORD Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 10, 2008, 3:52PM

Hurricane Ike's final touchdown is proving a nail-biter for residents and officials along the Texas coastline.

And for a region already fatigued by the number of alerts and near misses of storms steaming into the Gulf of Mexico, that's a good thing because more people in the Galveston and Houston area are paying closer attention.

"I think with each little ratchet up in our direction, people are going 'That's going to change things,' " Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said.

By late afternoon today, there were no plans to call for either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation, he said.

"We'll look at it this evening and see," Emmett said. "At this point we don't anticipate it (evacuations)."

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

[rtd2]

who gives a rats a-- which ones bigger. ike is a peculiar looking hurricane for sure.

Anyone that is interested in watching and keeping records is.

[Texas Snowman]

Seems to be something stirring...

Here's a post on the Ike Model thread by Air Force Met:

So you live by the GFS?

Trof is there in plenty of time. FYI...NHC wanted the track more east but didn't want to take a big jump just yet.

Where they hinted at putting it would give the HOU area the worst wacking since Carla

Dodging a bullet? You were saying?

Come on...

[Nexus]

[rtd2]

CDO seems to be expanding to the west also looks like eyewall is getting more organized
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

[Jevo]

Since everyone likes to compare.. Here is what Tip would have looked like in the gulf.. Could you imagine

[rtd2]

Since everyone likes to compare.. Here is what Tip would have looked like in the gulf.. Could you imagine

IN ALL honesty would NEVER happen too much land interaction!!! sure makes Ike look like a baby

[Cape Verde]

The company I work for (a major oil company) has its own weather team. We're not going to rely on the weatherbabes on the Weather Channel to base decisions costing millions of dollars on.

We closed the Houston office effective tonight. Landfall from our team at 4 pm CDT predicted landfall in Matagorda Bay, but allowed that it might shift to Freeport.

Either way, Houston gets this bigtime. Galveston gets the surge, and if the models continue shifting east, it's 1900 all over again.

[MBryant]

Harris County's Emmett says no evacuation yet
By TERRI LANGFORD Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 10, 2008, 3:52PM

Hurricane Ike's final touchdown is proving a nail-biter for residents and officials along the Texas coastline.

And for a region already fatigued by the number of alerts and near misses of storms steaming into the Gulf of Mexico, that's a good thing because more people in the Galveston and Houston area are paying closer attention.

"I think with each little ratchet up in our direction, people are going 'That's going to change things,' " Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said.

By late afternoon today, there were no plans to call for either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation, he said.

"We'll look at it this evening and see," Emmett said. "At this point we don't anticipate it (evacuations)."

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

"Wow thats is a very level headed statement.....no hype whatsoever!"

Emmett appears to be comfortable gambling with people's lives. If you're in a flood prone area, does it really matter that you drown from freshwater flooding rather than saltwater flooding? He takes a good point to the silly extreme. Most drowning deaths have NOTHING to do with salt water.

He should have said, "If your house hasn't flooded in the last 20 years and you're not in danger from falling trees and are in reasonably good health, evacuation isn't necessary."

[fasterdisaster]

Definitely expect recon to find an increase in winds soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Definitely expect recon to find an increase in winds soon.

The inner eye just won't go away. The inner and outter eye's are growing closer to each other,,,so I expect them to merge more or less.

[Nexus]

Definitely expect recon to find an increase in winds soon.

The moisture in the NE quad seems to be wrapping to the around south more efficiently now.