ATL: IKE Discussion

[KLP124]

So what would the odds be of two hurricanes hitting the same area two years in a row? Just asking because Humberto made landfall here on September 13, 2007.

[RainWind]

From the Houston discussion at 4:30 pm CST:

MARINE...
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF. IKE WILL
CONTINUE ON A W-NW TRACK AND IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND FREEPORT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT TPC
TRACK HAS LANDFALL NEAR PORT LAVACA...

[simplykristi]

There is a beautifully written book about the 1900's hurricane by by Eric Larson "Issac's Storm" A must read non-fiction for those Texas posters for sure, this Florida girl loved it also

I have the book and is very well written.

Kristi

[KWT]

Looks like Ike is trying to ramp up a little bit now, still seems to have that double eyewall issue but there is some decent cold tops in the inner eyewall and the eye is starting to warm a little.

[artist]

So what would the odds be of two hurricanes hitting the same area two years in a row? Just asking because Humberto made landfall here on September 13, 2007.

how about 2 weeks apart? Frances and Jeanne hit within miles of one another 2 weeks apart in 2004.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, the historical narrative "A Weekend in September" (by John Edward Weems) is another good read on the 1900 Galveston hurricane.

Picked it up at the storm museum in Galveston last summer.

[Stratusxpeye]

So what would the odds be of two hurricanes hitting the same area two years in a row? Just asking because Humberto made landfall here on September 13, 2007.

how about 2 weeks apart? Frances and Jeanne hit within miles of one another 2 weeks apart in 2004.

I remember those well Lots of yard work after those two SLOW moving storms,

And didn't IKE Just make landfall in the same spot or within miles from where Gustav did just not too long ago?

[Cape Verde]

The curving Texas coastline makes prediction of final landfall difficult at best. Yet, it still makes a huge difference to those communities east of the eye.

Even in my own situation, that coastline makes the analysis difficult. I'm 40 to 90 miles from the coast, but it depends on which point on the coast. Storm surge won't be a problem on the west side of Houston, but the distance from landfall to my house probably could make a big difference in terms of windspeed.

Timing is a factor too. Getting hurricane force winds in daylight hours is much preferable to a nighttime attack.

We're going to have to shut down the refineries along Galveston Bay. It would be reckless not to. Hope that they receive little damage.

[Brent]

Looks like Ike is trying to ramp up a little bit now, still seems to have that double eyewall issue but there is some decent cold tops in the inner eyewall and the eye is starting to warm a little.

[CronkPSU]

don't even have to go back to 2004, how bout gustav and ike hitting the same area of cuba less than 2 weeks apart

[MBryant]

"The idea is to limit traffic so that people in truly vulnerable places can get out. Rita was a disaster of an evacuation- they can't afford to have people gridlocked on the freeways fleeing the surge because people like me (I ran from Rita although I wasn't flood prone and was in a safe house because I didn't want to deal with the discomfort) decided to leave in massive numbers.

There's not enough time to clear the freeways if millions of shadow evacuees flee- the track has just been too uncertain. So I'm staying put. If worst case occurs and we're out of power long term, we'll see about heading out of town after the storm until the city is put back to rights. We'll be huddled down at home though. I've got a safe room and supplies. We're young and healthy we'll survive roughing it out."

That is a much better way of stating it. My problem was that he ignored the other vulnerabilities people face because of his focus on the surge vulnerability.

Rita showed that wind alone can be devastating. Allison showed fresh water flooding alone can be devastating. Beulah showed tornadoes alone can be devastating. Alecia showed loss of power alone can be devastating. Galveston 1900 showed surge alone could be devastating. I just hope people are astute enough to decide on their own based on their particular vulnerabilities.

[Aristotle]

Well boys and girls it looks as if the dry air will be out of the pic soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Now is the shear on the east side of Ike cutting off the outflow channel?

[SunnyThoughts]

Feature length video...based on the book "Isaac's Storm" 1 1/2 hours long...worth the watch.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 7172072633

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NRL has some impressive Google Earth overlays. In the left column, click the orange "KML" image to view them. Here is a direct link for Ike's:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... L.main.kml

[Aristotle]

Looks like Ike is trying to ramp up a little bit now, still seems to have that double eyewall issue but there is some decent cold tops in the inner eyewall and the eye is starting to warm a little.

could someone get a graphical drawing on this so I know what I'm looking at. Where is the 2nd eyewall?

[THead]

Does anyone have handy a map of oil platforms in Ike's path? I know I've seen one posted here before. Just wondering what the status of the rigs are now, with Ike's path being adjusted over the last day or so, are there new evacs underway for them I hope? Thanks.

[KLP124]

Does anyone have handy a map of oil platforms in Ike's path? I know I've seen one posted here before. Just wondering what the status of the rigs are now, with Ike's path being adjusted over the last day or so, are there new evacs underway for them I hope? Thanks.

Here's one:

http://www.cccarto.com/gulf_platforms.html

[Brent]

[KWT]

Very impressive Vis imagery, the overall coverage of Ike is pretty impressive, its covering most of the eastern part of the gulf of mexico right now so its not a small system thats for sure!

Anyway Ike's inner core for now still holding pretty well it seems compared to the last few attempts where the outer eyewall has been robbing the system of its energy.

[tolakram]

Main Stream Media report so take is as you will...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482/

NBC News and news services
updated 6:50 p.m. ET Sept. 10, 2008

HOUSTON - As Ike strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds on Wednesday, officials weighing whether to evacuate millions of South Texans were told that Ike could make landfall even sooner, possibly late Friday night, and in the Houston-Galveston area — not closer to the border with Mexico as earlier forecast.

Four counties south and east of Houston announced mandatory or voluntary evacuations, and authorities began moving weak and chronically ill patients by bus to San Antonio, about 190 miles from Houston. No immediate evacuations were ordered in Harris County, which includes Houston.

A computer model used by the National Hurricane Center forecast a shift 100 miles north, "right into Houston/Galveston with a Category 4" storm, said NBC meteorologist Bill Karins.

"It's too early to know if the other models will copy and shift further north but, no matter what, the trends are not looking good for the millions of people in and around Houston," he added. "With approximately 48 hours until the hurricane force winds move onshore, everyone from Corpus Christi, Houston to Beaumont needs to prepare for a Category 3 or 4 hurricane landfall."

-snip-