ATL: IKE Discussion

[fci]

Update. Jeff. Here.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1822893#p1822893

It just keeps getting bleaker for Houston and Galveston.

It's hard enough to get homeowner insurance in this area. After this, companies would have to be forced to write policies because this could be enormous.

If you're State Farm, why wouldn't you logically say, "We're not selling insurance along the Gulf Coast anymore." We'll focus on safer places like Idaho.

Come to Florida here and try to get insurance, or anything that's budget reasonable and not 4k a year+. State farm just tried to double rates again but the state refused to allow them to do such things. Just wondering why is it so hard in texas?

The entire "Hurricane Belt" is in an insurance crisis.
It is not a "Florida" or "Texas" issue.

[CajunMama]

Could i request that the houston people quit saying the ike needs to go east of houston. It's a little insensative for those who had gone through rita. Please consider what others have gone thru before you post something like that. We have members who lost their homes in rita. Their areas are finally getting back to normal. Just please consider the feelings and situations of others besides yourself.

[attallaman]

I think there's quite the reason to panic..in my situation.

I'm one of those people who can't afford to evacuate.

I can't fathom leaving on the 211 method to shelters in points unknown alone with three kids...and no money.

I also cannot fathom staying here and dealing with this howling monster, as it appears on the radar now.

Well that does put you in an awkward situation.

[Derek Ortt]

Yeah...I havent felt this sense of impending doom factor for a major city since Katrina. be that as it may. NO reason to panic. Things can change. Dry air and shear can happen...

PS...is it just me or is it too late to evacuate effectively Houston. I mean...current NHC has it crossing coast omrrow night in the middle of the night. That is around 36 hours. And TS force winds could be hitting as early as tomorrow afternoon. Less the 24 hours before TS onset and no evacs yet ?Doesnt seem near long enough.

its about 60 hours. Its overnight Friday/Sat

[KWT]

Ike's pretty large, I've no doubt that by the time Ike has reached its peak its wind field will be larger then that of hurricane Katrina, does look like its going to be one of the larger hurricanes we've in the gulf of Mexico at the moment.

Given the huge wind field and hurricane winds extending 110 miles even areas that aren't directly near the systems landflal are going to know itss made landfall alright.

[MBryant]

Houston's only hope is Trough books down fast and erodes ridge quick enough for it to pass East of Galveston ala Rita..

Trough is making good progress, but is it deep enough and strong enough. doesnt appear to be cutting off ull

Houston's hope and the Golden Triangle's nightmare.

[superfly]

Houston should be fine as long as it's not a cat4/5 direct hit to the west. Surge will not be a problem as Houston is well inland and very high. Winds will create power outages but should not cause any significant structural damage unless it's a cat4/5 direct hit.

[bob rulz]

Carla, Gilbert, Ike...

[tolakram]

[TSmith274]

Seriously, what the hell are people in Houston going to do? I have tons of friends there. Getting to work is a nightmare for them. I can't imagine a successful evacuation at this point. They should have ACTED SOONER!!!

[Lowpressure]

Ike's pretty large, I've no doubt that by the time Ike has reached its peak its wind field will be larger then that of hurricane Katrina, does look like its going to be one of the larger hurricanes we've in the gulf of Mexico at the moment.

Given the huge wind field and hurricane winds extending 110 miles even areas that aren't directly near the systems landflal are going to know itss made landfall alright.

KWT- the other concern is with a wind field that large- surge- could be a huge issue over a large area.

[tallywx]

Houston should be fine as long as it's not a cat4/5 direct hit to the west. Surge will not be a problem as Houston is well inland and very high. Winds will create power outages but should not cause any significant structural damage unless it's a cat4/5 direct hit.

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

[Dean4Storms]

I've noticed the same thing Sabanic, the NHC expects Ike to begin the more WNW turn tonight and it should as the ridge is shown as having filled the weakness along the upper Gulf coast. Still it would be prudent for those east of Galveston to watch this closely IMO.

[gboudx]

Update. Jeff. Here.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1822893#p1822893

Yet another.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1822997#p1822997

[MiamiensisWx]

Houston should be fine as long as it's not a cat4/5 direct hit to the west. Surge will not be a problem as Houston is well inland and very high. Winds will create power outages but should not cause any significant structural damage unless it's a cat4/5 direct hit.

Although your point is valid, it should be noted that flying glass will be a hazard, and TS/low end Cat 1 (1-min) winds caused significant glass losses during Alicia.

[PTPatrick]

Disregard my post abut evac time. I was thinking today was thursday when i posted it...need to get more sleep. In any case...if they call mandatory evac tomorrow morning that are still looking at 36 hours. I will admit that many folks in the houston area away from coast could probably stay put if they dont have flooding issues or weak homes. In Rita too many people tried to leave. Just like with Miami. You have to have a head about you as FLorida is only so wide and only so many roads go north.

[fci]

Could i request that the houston people quit saying the ike needs to go east of houston. It's a little insensative for those who had gone through rita. Please consider what others have gone thru before you post something like that. We have members who lost their homes in rita. Their areas are finally getting back to normal. Just please consider the feelings and situations of others besides yourself.

Amen.
I don't wish this monster on anyone. And neither should anyone else.
We all enjoy following the tropics but this is the time that it stops being "fun".

We got lucky here where I live, and many will also get lucky; but we all need to pray for those who are not quite as fortunate.

[HurricaneRobert]

Yeah...I havent felt this sense of impending doom factor for a major city since Katrina. be that as it may. NO reason to panic. Things can change. Dry air and shear can happen...

PS...is it just me or is it too late to evacuate effectively Houston. I mean...current NHC has it crossing coast omrrow night in the middle of the night. That is around 36 hours. And TS force winds could be hitting as early as tomorrow afternoon. Less the 24 hours before TS onset and no evacs yet ?Doesnt seem near long enough.

its about 60 hours. Its overnight Friday/Sat

With 6 million people trying to determine who should go where is a bigger task than it is anywhere else in the Gulf. 60 hours is not enough time for an evacuation.

[mattpetre]

Disregard my post abut evac time. I was thinking today was thursday when i posted it...need to get more sleep. In any case...if they call mandatory evac tomorrow morning that are still looking at 36 hours. I will admit that many folks in the houston area away from coast could probably stay put if they dont have flooding issues or weak homes. In Rita too many people tried to leave. Just like with Miami. You have to have a head about you as FLorida is only so wide and only so many roads go north.

SO... why is the Mayor of Galveston saying it's too late for mandatory evacs?

[KWT]

mattpetre, prehaps because of the shear numbers that will have to get out, who knows?

It really can't be much longer before Ike turns WNW, its only a touch north of the current forecast track mind you...