ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[JonathanBelles]

TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-181345-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0028.080818T1317Z-080818T1345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
917 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 911 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES EAST OF
ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION...MOVING WEST AT 34 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION BY 945 AM EDT...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL CROSS HIGHWAY 1 AND CARD SOUND ROAD
ROUGHLY HALF WAY BETWEEN FLORIDA CITY AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA COAST.

SOUTH FLORIDA TORNADOES MAY AT TIMES BE SMALL AND NARROW BUT THEY ARE
STILL DANGEROUS. THEY CAN EASILY FLIP A VEHICLE OR TRAILER OR CAUSE
LARGE TREES TO FALL. TAKE COVER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2536 8025 2538 8027 2538 8029 2533 8033
2533 8035 2529 8037 2529 8039 2527 8039
2526 8041 2524 8043 2528 8070 2549 8062
2542 8033 2538 8029 2538 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 106DEG 30KT 2533 8037

[tgenius]

So basically my office will make a decision at 11am advisory as to what we will do in the office. I suspect the cone will shift east.. and if for some reason we were given a Hurricane Watch it may make for an interesting meeting

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yehh...so I'm thinking tornado warnigs will be issued very, very soon...


http://www.wptv.com/weather/default.aspx

Lots of nasty stuff heading our way...Looks like a wonderful day in sunny south florida

warnings will not be issued until they spot a cell with rotation that could produce a tornado. Most of he time with Hurricanes you can not rely on warnings because by the time they spot a cell the tornado has already touched down and died off. Alot of the time Tornadoes with Hurricanes are short lived and rain wrapped so they are very hard to spot.

[tolakram]

For those of you insisting that the models were off or the NHC was wrong please ride the snake. Let's see where Fay ends up but as it stands I'm happy with this kind of accuracy.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the 11am update may speed up the NHC forecast track a bit. I just see no way how this would wait until tomorrow afternoon to make landfall (as was forecast at 5am). At Fay's current speed, landfall looks more likely to take place sometime this evening or overnight, IMO. 

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[capepoint]

Thanks for posting that Steve. I agree with you 100 percent. Whether Pro or not, ALL of us are just guessing, so why do some on here get so angry when someone disagrees with them or they are proven wrong. I have seen PRO METS on here post very hatefull remarks, all the while being proved totally wrong with thier own thoughts. If any of us were as good at forcasting canes as some of us thought we were, we would be sitting in the TPC this morning. The only way to know who is correct and who is FOS is to check back in about 10 days.

I do believe thats why they carry the disclamer on here. If somebody wants official information, go to an official source and get it.

ok...back on topic

[jasons2k]

Just my opinion based on latest radar trends, etc., I expect a shift east in the track.


Shot at 2008-08-18

[gatorcane]

well this does appear to be panning out as a Southern FL event has I suspected from 5 days ago when we first started tracking Fay when she was 92L...lots of heavy squall are coming ashore SE FL this morning....and the winds are increasing within the heavier squalls.

as tracks shift East Fay is getting closer to what CLIMO suggested all along when Fay was in her seminal stages over the big island of Hispaniola --- and CLIMO may win out yet again.

Latest image:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif

[wxman57]

12Z consensus models shifting east to Ft. Myers. But not much near Fay's center. Convection very weak near the center. Heavy squalls are way east of the center.

[capepoint]

well this does appear to be panning out as a Southern FL event has I suspected from 5 days ago when we first started tracking Fay when she was 92L...lots of heavy squall are coming ashore SE FL this morning....and the winds are increasing.

as tracks shift East Fay is getting closer to what CLIMO suggests.

Latest image:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif

I would just about bet that surface winds in those squalls are higher than anything around the center.

[cpdaman]

For those of you insisting that the models were off or the NHC was wrong please ride the snake. Let's see where Fay ends up but as it stands I'm happy with this kind of accuracy.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

compare the 11pm forecasted points from last nite w/ reality , that's what he was talking about.

hurricane hunters looking for a circulation on the south coast of cuba, when in fact it had made a hard right turn and accelerated and moved into the central part of the country already

[StJoe]

well this does appear to be panning out as a Southern FL event has I suspected from 5 days ago when we first started tracking Fay when she was 92L...lots of heavy squall are coming ashore SE FL this morning....and the winds are increasing within the heavier squalls.

as tracks shift East Fay is getting closer to what CLIMO suggested all along when Fay was in her seminal stages over the big island of Hispaniola --- and CLIMO may win out yet again.

Latest image:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif

Where are you in Wellington GatorCane? I know I've asked you before, but you don't reply?

[JPmia]

Interesting turn of events this morning. Keep throwing those models out folks! LOL, but seriously, looks like an Irene '99 situation to me.

Why? Fay is pretty much right on track.

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY
CONNECTED. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR. GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD."

They imply more shifts to the right in the forecast track and none of the models were forecasting this shift yesterday. very interesting to see what's in the 11am advisory and I am not saying NHC was wrong...just the models.

[ALhurricane]

My untrained eye says she may be developing a lil better this morning.. I could be wrong. It'll be interesting to see when she reaches Cat 1 status

Chances of Cat 1 are looking pretty remote this morning. She is kind of a mess right now and will not have all that much time to get herself together.

[jlauderdal]

Interesting turn of events this morning. Keep throwing those models out folks! LOL, but seriously, looks like an Irene '99 situation to me.

modeling has been good, east side is favored as expected but so far so good on the consensus

[Sanibel]

A little worried here. A system that exits at 60mph is telling you I have something to me. Potential to snap back with energy.

Hazy moon last night like a hurricane sky. Today you can see the blue skies to our NW in between Fay and the trough. Saw a few birds and doves outside.

Big decisions to make in the next few hours and some quick work of collecting evacuation materials.

[jinftl]

Has anyone let the NHC know that Fay is in bad shape and prob won't become a 'cane?

As of 8am they sang a different tune..


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

My untrained eye says she may be developing a lil better this morning.. I could be wrong. It'll be interesting to see when she reaches Cat 1 status

Chances of Cat 1 are looking pretty remote this morning. She is kind of a mess right now and will not have all that much time to get herself together.

[tolakram]

Key West

wind 13 mph from the NE



In my opinion Fay is suddenly looking pretty good for a storm reported to be in such bad shape. Hopefully I'm just wrong again.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Anyone else think Fay has a hurricane Dvorak while a TS?