ATL: IKE Discussion

[PTPatrick]

I have some questions for people that know the lay of the land down there...IF Landfall were ON galveston Island:

1) what kinda surge would a cat 4 this big, in that area cause. I know its all about the shape of coastline, the shelf etc...
2) would that be the worst case for surge into Galveston Bay or is there another angle of approach thats worse.
3) and finally: if surge did go into the bay with the storm hitting Galveston...which side would get the worse piling up effect east or west. I have family in Kemah not far from water.

[TSmith274]

Disregard my post abut evac time. I was thinking today was thursday when i posted it...need to get more sleep. In any case...if they call mandatory evac tomorrow morning that are still looking at 36 hours. I will admit that many folks in the houston area away from coast could probably stay put if they dont have flooding issues or weak homes. In Rita too many people tried to leave. Just like with Miami. You have to have a head about you as FLorida is only so wide and only so many roads go north.

SO... why is the Mayor of Galveston saying it's too late for mandatory evacs?

And as huge as this hurricane is, 36 hours doesn't really mean 36 hours. Conditions will be deteriorating before that mark... a lot sooner than you think. I remember evacuating for Katrina within the reccomended timeframe and getting pummeled by rainbands while leaving the city.

[HurricaneRobert]

I think the worst case for storm surge is a landfall in Freeport.

[6SpeedTA95]

This system has a pretty broad windfield but the CP is dropping again.

[Annie Oakley]

Yeah...I havent felt this sense of impending doom factor for a major city since Katrina. be that as it may. NO reason to panic. Things can change. Dry air and shear can happen...

PS...is it just me or is it too late to evacuate effectively Houston. I mean...current NHC has it crossing coast omrrow night in the middle of the night. That is around 36 hours. And TS force winds could be hitting as early as tomorrow afternoon. Less the 24 hours before TS onset and no evacs yet ?Doesnt seem near long enough.

its about 60 hours. Its overnight Friday/Sat

Thank you Derk Ott
for those of you here rather new-Derek Ott is one of the the Voices of Reason-he states facts and nothing else. Main thing is to be in the know -which you are doing by being here-and PREPARE. Use your common sense and pay attention to your local authorities-do not let fear make you undecisive-weigh the facts and take the best advice. The best info is from NHC, local bulletins and the professional Mets here on Storm2k. Be brave and be strong.

[KWT]

Got to admit this is one of the strangest systems I've seen in regards to the pressure/wind relationship, I mean its got winds that barely justify cat-2 and yet a central pressure thats still dropping and now down to 945mbs extrap

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Red ring around the eye...This storm seems to love having a inner and outter eye for some reason.

[CrazyC83]

From 7 PM CDT Advisory.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

{Expletive deleted}
Why am I getting shades of the worst parts of the 2005 season back into my head?

Prayers sent upwards and onwards...

Is Ike Texas sized or not?

The circulation is much bigger than Texas.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Got to admit this is one of the strangest systems I've seen in regards to the pressure/wind relationship, I mean its got winds that barely justify cat-2 and yet a central pressure thats still dropping and now down to 945mbs extrap

It seems that both inner and outter eye walls are strengthing. In fact, based on the reds forming around the inner, it maybe strengthing even faster right now.

[WmE]

Got to admit this is one of the strangest systems I've seen in regards to the pressure/wind relationship, I mean its got winds that barely justify cat-2 and yet a central pressure thats still dropping and now down to 945mbs extrap

It seems that both inner and outter eye walls are strengthing. In fact, based on the reds forming around the inner, it maybe strengthing even faster right now.

Yeah I agree. That is very strange.

[Sihara]

I think there's quite the reason to panic..in my situation.

I'm one of those people who can't afford to evacuate.

I can't fathom leaving on the 211 method to shelters in points unknown alone with three kids...and no money.

I also cannot fathom staying here and dealing with this howling monster, as it appears on the radar now.

This is so sad. Senobia, do you have any friends/relatives that you could go to - or even co-workers who live further from the vulnerable area? Does the Texas coast, or your county, have a Host Home program, or are any churches helping people connect with others who would be willing to put them up till the storm is gone?

My heart goes out to you, and to others in the path of the hurricane.

[jinftl]

very true....cat 1 sustained with cat 2 gusts made downtown look crazy with all the blown out windows and office debris that flew out. If you asked anyone they would have guessed we had much higher winds than we did. The new highrises did the best with their impact resistant windows....older buildings were a mess.

Houston should be fine as long as it's not a cat4/5 direct hit to the west. Surge will not be a problem as Houston is well inland and very high. Winds will create power outages but should not cause any significant structural damage unless it's a cat4/5 direct hit.

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

City of Texas City says not to evacuate....

This is Texas City Emergency Management.
We are closely watching the path of Hurricane Ike.
We are aware that some evacuations are taking place in low lying areas of Galveston County.
We are recommending that the citizens of Texas City remain in their homes throughout any weather that may arrive on Friday.
In making this recommendation, we are aware that Hurricane Ike will go onshore in the Matagorda Bay area but feel that no, repeat no, evacuation is necessary .
Evacuations are occurring in some places due to flooding of low lying areas.
Again we recommend that all Texas City citizens prepare to remain in their homes during the upcoming heavy weather.
Finally, as before we make many preparations that are both visible and not. One of those visible preparations is the arrival of busses in the stadium parking lot. We are a regional hub for this type of transportation and we must deploy early to ensure they are in place should we need them. Some will begin to arrive tonite and we do not anticipate using them at present.

Please check your PM inbox

[CronkPSU]

this has been bothering me all day, people keep calling double ring but I haven't seen any recon reports saying there was a double ring

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike looks incredible. Should without question be Cat 3 at 10PM.


That CDO and mini eye are pretty similar to Caribbean monsters instead of GOM storms...

[terrapintransit]

Pressure down to 942.5 mb

[Melly]

Just a question, I'm new here well I joined during Gustav, and was in mandatory evac for that, I'm in Southeast Texas the Port Author area, the area who was slammed with Rita, 3yrs and 2 weeks ago from today.

I am just curious, should the southeast texas area evacuate? I'm not hearing much about my area, but On the weather channel it is showing now further right torge Lake Charles, And I'm 45 minutes from Lake Charles.. eek scary...

[Cape Verde]

The thing I hate most about this storm is that it will make landfall at night. A big hurricane is scary during the day when you can see the debris headed toward your house.

At night, you're tired and can't see squat. All you can do is hear. And when the power goes out, you're really on your own.

That's what this is setting up to be.

And the affected ones, like I expect to be, won't be able to get into this forum for any information. It's not a good feeling.

[nolecaster]

Super, super, super low pressure with no winds. Mind-boggling.

When are these winds going to catch up? They've been lagging way behind since he's first touched Cuba.

[gboudx]

May be a good time to change the batteries in your weather radio, or go buy a battery-powered weather radio. And if you can get one of those crank radios, might be a good idea too.