ATL: IKE Discussion

[DanKellFla]

Ike looks incredible. Should without question be Cat 3 at 10PM.


That CDO and mini eye are pretty similar to Caribbean monsters instead of GOM storms...

I thought it was bombing out last night. There was so much convection around the eye. It should be a Cat 3 already! Or maybe even stronger. Hopefully, there is no intesification just before landfall. Ughh.



CapeVerde.... I bought one of those million candle power flashlights just for that reason.

[Ixolib]

Pressure down to 942.5 mb

So, what's the "rate of drop" for the day? How much drop vs. how much time elapsed?

[Frank P]

The thing I hate most about this storm is that it will make landfall at night. A big hurricane is scary during the day when you can see the debris headed toward your house.

At night, you're tired and can't see squat. All you can do is hear. And when the power goes out, you're really on your own.

That's what this is setting up to be.

And the affected ones, like I expect to be, won't be able to get into this forum for any information. It's not a good feeling.

good point.. I am convinced had Katrina hit at night the death toll along the MS coast would be been much much much higher... I experienced Camille at night and it was quite terrifying ...

[amawea]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

[Cape Verde]

Super, super, super low pressure with no winds. Mind-boggling.

When are these winds going to catch up? They've been lagging way behind since he's first touched Cuba.

I think I can speak for about 4 million people who hope they never do.

[amawea]

Post to add that even if it does go to Matagorda I wouldn't want to remain in Texas City!

[HURAKAN]

[Ixolib]

I experienced Camille at night and it was quite terrifying ...

Ditto!! Of course I was only 12 in Camille. In Katrina, I/we (sorry Frank!!) was "way older" but not terrified, just simply dumbfounded!! Numb comes to mind...

[dhweather]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Obviously, they are. Ike has a huge windfield, his pressure is dropping, the entire Texas coast is under a Hurricane Watch and will likely be under a warning tomorrow. Last minute jogs (see Charley) represent why large areas are placed under warnings.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I can speak for about 4 million people who hope they never do.

Unfortunately, the large wind radii will still produce a very significant surge in excess of +15-20 feet in some localized locations, regardless of the exact maximum sustained winds at landfall. As Ike intensifies to a major hurricane, the surge may even be larger, even if it weakens significantly prior to landfall. As Katrina and others demonstrated, the surge doesn't decrease if a large wind radii is present.

[Senobia]

Dang. From what HURAKAN just posted, it looks like the NE side of Ike is gonna rake southern LA before it hits Texas.

[x-y-no]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Assuming that statement was genuine, they clearly spoke too definitively too early. I did check their website and it does not have any recent updates. They do mention a text message notification system. The statement may have come from that.

I would say to anyone in that area that they should not take that as the final word on whether to evacuate.

[dhweather]

Over in the recon thread, pressure has dropped 5 mb in one hour. That's not a good thing.

942.5mb now.

[Annie Oakley]

Quite beautiful!

[Wx_Warrior]

Sabine Pass, Tx, now under voluntary @ 6am Thursday morning.

[lisa0825]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Obviously, they are. Ike has a huge windfield, his pressure is dropping, the entire Texas coast is under a Hurricane Watch and will likely be under a warning tomorrow. Last minute jogs (see Charley) represent why large areas are placed under warnings.

I was shocked by the message from Texas City too. I haven't decided yet. I will decide in the morning, and it won't be based on my town's emergency management's opinion. I get better info here for sure! I have my supplies and plywood ready to go.

What I dread most if I decide to evacuate is that I have foster kitties that were feral until tamed, and I am afraid they will revert back to feral if traumatized. I really don't want to have to capture them and get them into cages if I can avoid it, but I certainly won't put us all in danger due to that fear. I'm watching this site, the forecasts, and the models very closely.

[Melly]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Obviously, they are. Ike has a huge windfield, his pressure is dropping, the entire Texas coast is under a Hurricane Watch and will likely be under a warning tomorrow. Last minute jogs (see Charley) represent why large areas are placed under warnings.

The weather channel keeps screaming at me they we are under a Hurricane Watch, but like you I'm sure we will be under a warning tomorrow...

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Shear forecast from SHIP just came out and is good for Ike to go ahead and continue to intensify as shear will be low.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KTS)        9     8    10     5     8    11     8     7     1     9    37    48    66


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[Bunkertor]

Now i get it

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I can speak for about 4 million people who hope they never do.

Unfortunately, the large wind radii will still produce a very significant surge in excess of +15-20 feet in some localized locations, regardless of the exact maximum sustained winds at landfall. As Ike intensifies to a major hurricane, the surge may even be larger, even if it weakens significantly prior to landfall. As Katrina and others demonstrated, the surge doesn't decrease if a large wind radii is present.

Personally, it is becoming increasingly clear that storm surge heights solidly greater than 20 feet are likely in some locales. Of course, the wide swath of strong TS and Cat 1/2 winds is damaging as well.