ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

It already seems....2 days out.....that the set-up for a "it was supposed to go to Corpus" cry out will be made if landfall is over galveston...and alot of that is because of local officials are assesing the risk of their area..largely based on distance from ever-changing black line. If you are in the cone, the eye can move over you...prepare accordingly.

[PTPatrick]

Well I am no expert on Texas coastal topography...I am good on MS/LA. I know Carla did 22 ft, so I guess this would could come close if there topography off Galveston isnt much different than matagorda. But suffice it to say 26 still seems a bit high. 20 ish seems more likely.

[TampaFl]

2100 UTC steering flow - High pressure over the Texas coast appears to be hanging strong. Ike continues in the weakness between the two highs.

[Cyclenall]

Everyone remember that gustav made it to 150mph w/20kt of shear, and what stopped him from cat5 was not shear, but land interaction.

IT WAS SHEAR. Do you honestly still think that? It was shear that gave Hurricane Gustav a bumsteer.

[jaxfladude]

So when is the next Recon/NOAA info going to be feed in to the models..?

[Clint_TX]

What is wrong with these local officials in Texas lowballing all these forecasts???

Methinks they are doing the evacs in stages to avoid the folks on the coast being trapped on the roads...look for wider evacs in the morning...we are reaping the benefits of better forcasts with Ike

[Weatherfreak14]

2100 UTC steering flow - High pressure over the Texas coast appears to be hanging strong. Ike continues in the weakness between the two highs.

Is that supposed to be like that?????? I mean i thought that was to fill back in by today.

[jeffscout]

I was down on Tiki Island (on the land side of Galveston( today making final preps for the storm. I pulled my boat out, put all outdoor furniture inside and secured anything outdoors of value that might blow/wash away. I'm sure my Sugar Land homeowners association is already typing the letter about my boat in the driveway...so be it.

Tides were already up 1' above normal. There is an eerie sense of complacency here. This time in 2005 with Rita, it was total chaos in Houston. The public seems to forget that Rita was supposed to hit Freeport, and in 24 hours it wound up in Port Arthur. I did not witness any problems with fuel, every station between Galveston and Sugar Land on Hwy 6 was open. I, along with my next door neighbor, are well prepared with food, water, fuel, and generators to sustain us for a week or so. I sure hope my gut feeling is not correct and that the storm goes somewhere else, but for now I really suspect HOU/GLS is in for a whole lot more than most people think at this point.

Since I have gotten so much great information here, I am honored to return the favor. I've been a member for a while, just lurk a lot more than post. Here is a good link to use to observe water levels across the coastal US. I use it for fishing, but it shows storm surge very well.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8771450%20Galveston%20Pier%2021,%20TX&type=Tide+Data

[tolakram]

Though there is a skip in the images it appears Ike has slowed and then turned more W/NW as of late. Keep in mind most of the easy to get at sat pics are up to an hour behind at times. Heck this one is usually current but right now 20 minutes behind.

Slow to load but worth it:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

[6SpeedTA95]

2100 UTC steering flow - High pressure over the Texas coast appears to be hanging strong. Ike continues in the weakness between the two highs.

ugh...that could get rather nasty if it continues on its current heading...

[Evac3]

Here is our Surge map thing for Southeast Texas. Roll your mouse over the different Category buttons to change the map. We have A LOT of rivers and bayous that a surge would shoot right up into around here. That's why so many of us have to evacuate in this area.

http://www.kfdm.com/sections/weather/hurricane/stormsurge/

[jinftl]

Are evacuation decisions made at the city or county level in texas? In florida it is at the county level....not knowing all of the politics...it just seesms county-wide decisions on who is to evacuate show a more consistent message to the public than if your city says go and the neighboring city does not.

What is wrong with these local officials in Texas lowballing all these forecasts???

Methinks they are doing the evacs in stages to avoid the folks on the coast being trapped on the roads...look for wider evacs in the morning...we are reaping the benefits of better forcasts with Ike

[pablolopez26]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.htm

Live Video Stream of Hurricane information for Ike! please listen, and good luck to us all!

[Annie Oakley]

Everybody! Cut it out! The demeaning of the local authorities etc. There seems to be a trend here to cause dissention berween the people and the authorites-this has to stop! This is the time for everyone in Texas to band together and use their collective heads-do NOT let dissention reign among the ranks. The trend on this board in attitude towards authorities is going south...whoever is propagating this needs to stop right now and give people back their dignity-Texans just carry on and do what you do best..we will get through this and we will help each other-you other panic-mongers need to disperse.

[TTheriot1975]

It is county wide in texas

[gboudx]

From jeff.

Pressure is tanking...very fast down 16mb in the last few hours.

Recon. is now reporting hurricane force winds extend outward an amazing 115 miles from the center...that is borderline insane.

Winds will likely respond to the pressure fall and we will likely be facing a cat 4 in the morning.

[tolakram]

2100 UTC steering flow - High pressure over the Texas coast appears to be hanging strong. Ike continues in the weakness between the two highs.

A good explanation of the blocking ridge was done by S2K's own analyst don sutherland in the TA forum:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103074&p=1821781#p1821781

[TideJoe]

2100 UTC steering flow - High pressure over the Texas coast appears to be hanging strong. Ike continues in the weakness between the two highs.

ugh...that could get rather nasty if it continues on its current heading...

No kidding. No one on the northern GOM thinks this thing is headed anywhere but Texas (maybe SW LA). Let's hope the models are right and that high off the Texas coast does what it's supposed to do..... for the sake of SE LA.

[jaxfladude]

Everybody! Cut it out! The demeaning of the local authorities etc. There seems to be a trend here to cause dissention berween the people and the authorites-this has to stop! This is the time for everyone in Texas to band together and use their collective heads-do NOT let dissention reign among the ranks. The trend on this board in attitude towards authorities is going south...whoever is propagating this needs to stop right now and give people back their dignity-Texans just carry on and do what you do best..we will get through this and we will help each other-you other panic-mongers need to disperse.

Well said...

[dhweather]

After Katrina, I reviewed all of the hurricanes that had reached category five intensity in the Gulf. Regardless of intensity at landfall, all but one had a storm surge typical of category five heights.

Please remember this if you are in a low lying area.