ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[BigA]

I thought some might be interested in seeing a radar comparison with Hurricane Irene at the time.

This was Irene's radar as it approached Key west. Note the paucity of organization/symmetry, especially for a hurricane.

Again, this is Irene from 99, not Fay. http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/movies/ ... 00zani.gif

I am sorry if this is off topic

[gatorcane]

Looks like a slight East adjustment of the track is in store with landfall south of Tampa Bay now --- good news for that area if that verifies.

[Steve]

Thanks Purdue. Multiple vortices always mess up the discussion.

Steve

[Air Force Met]

Irene strengthened

No...it didn't.

From the advisories:
2 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999/...IRENE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.../MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH.../THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB

11 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999/THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA./MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH.../ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB/

5 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999/...IRENE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.../MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH.../THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 986 MB

[cpdaman]

be a good girl fay and keep moving , dont get any funny ideas of stalling

no wind but tremendous rain in SE palm beach currently

[tgenius]

So the 11am will pretty much confirm that we aren't going to close early.

I have overheard that the banks in Miami are closing at around noon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Landfall time has been sped up to 8am compared to 2pm in the old advisory.

Chances of my flight getting out of Orlando tomorrow at noon definitely seem to be going way down if the current track and forecast verifies..

[artist]

dogs going nuts here. Have seen 3 birds since Friday. Cat won't go outside. I will just be glad when this thing has passed us so they settle down.

[JPmia]

So the 11am will pretty much confirm that we aren't going to close early.

I have overheard that the banks in Miami are closing at around noon.

government offices in broward closing at 12pm today and tentatively open tommorrow (i know this is off topic..sorry!)

[Bgator]

Will the winds actually make it to the surface though? I remember ernesto we didnt even get TS force winds, because they didnt make there way down to the surface.

[tolakram]

Latest plot.

This is not a forecast, the dashed line represents an extrapolation from movement last night and has not been updated since. I'm using it as a measure of direction.

[Sanibel]

BigA: Thanks for that comparison radar to Irene. My relative in Miami Beach said Irene was a shock to him and almost made him move. Notice Irene's NW quadrant had more of a W of SW to E of NE border with the steering feature. Fay is more SSW-NNE.


Well I'm getting that lead block in the gut feeling from watching this evolve and looking at the track. My thinking that this will trend east could be, well, wishing away casting. Only a fool would not prepare under this scenario - so now is a good time to get the car loaded just in case. Let's let the center resolve some more. NHC track looks more viable in the last hour from center behavior. NHC has the storm just to our west with a hard side hit after going across high heat content waters. It's also somewhat humid here right now. Time to start evacuation preparations.

[HURAKAN]

[NEXRAD]

Will the winds actually make it to the surface though? I remember ernesto we didnt even get TS force winds, because they didnt make there way down to the surface.

Key West and Miami VAD profiles are showing increasing winds just above the surface. These will begin working down over the next hour or two for the Keys and by early afternoon for Miami-Dade county, especially coastal and south. Also, Ernesto was only a 40 knot tropical storm at landfall. Usually weak tropical storms (under 50 knots) tend to not have much for tropical storm force winds over land, they tend to be more marine wind events.

- Jay

[Evil Jeremy]

Everything now depends on when Fay turns due North. Remember, her entire windfield is on her east side, so all of SFL should experience TS winds if she takes the current expected path.

[Canelaw99]

LOL yep...my 2 cats have run around the house this morning spazzing out...they're actually napping now, but I expect to see them acting up again later on this evening.

[HURAKAN]

[seaswing]

When do you all think warnings/watches will be posted for upper west coast?

[tolakram]

KEY WEST 11AM

Wind: 28 mph / 44 km/h / 12.3 m/s from the ENE
Wind Gust: 39 mph / 63 km/h / 17.5 m/s
Pressure: 29.82 in / 1010 hPa (Rising)

[NEXRAD]

When do you all think warnings/watches will be posted for upper west coast?

I think whether watches are posted farther north on the Gulf Coast depends on Fay's movement over the next few hours. If the storm seems more likely to trend east of the TPC's 11AM track, then watches might not go up. Otherwise, I'd expect them to go-up at (or before) the 5PM advisory.

- Jay