ATL: IKE Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Isn't there another thread for all this preparation discussion????????????????

[rockyman]

Ike is having wide-reaching impacts...Here on Dauphin Island, parts of the West End are already underwater and the worst is yet to come. Below is a water-level map for 3 points along the Alabama coast. The West End of the Island starts flooding at 2 feet and my yard will be wet if/when the water reaches 4 feet (which it might before morning):

[pojo]

Anyone knows why the Air Force identifies the flight as=AF303 2009A IKE1 That number 1 besides the name.

because the ARWO had to restart the mission... normally its AF304 1709A IKE... if something happens with the computer or the ground station we have to restart the mission so it would be AF304 1709A IKE1

[terrapintransit]

Pressure still falling....941.6 extrapolated

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Texans, storm surge will be a huge problem. Hurricane winds extend
115 miles from the center and tropical storm winds 205 miles from the center
based on Jeff L. and NHC. Tampa Bay had a tidal rise of 3 feet flooding
my back yard and putting many roads under water in low lying areas, and we
are 400 MILES AWAY from the center.

IT IS THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE force winds that will
determine surge. Only a very small area will see Category 4 winds,
probably right at the coast, but the surge will be the issue here.

Now if the eye becomes larger due to an eyewall replacement cycle,
then surge is still a massive problem and wind also becomes a bigger problem.

[pablolopez26]

Jeff Masters is live right now...

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.htm

I have a lot of respect for him.

[TampaFl]

A good explanation of the blocking ridge was done by S2K's own analyst don sutherland in the TA forum:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103074&p=1821781#p1821781[/quote]


Thanks Tolakram - did not see that earlier - will check it out.

Robert

[vbhoutex]

No demeaning, no name calling....but that does not mean the observation can not be raised...esp by those in the 'thick of it'....that this type of scenario should have been practiced, synchronized, analyzed, and reviewed by city,county, state officials. There is no reason that things should be helter-skelter at this point if that was done. Only the residents in the path can really tell us that.

Everybody! Cut it out! The demeaning of the local authorities etc. There seems to be a trend here to cause dissention berween the people and the authorites-this has to stop! This is the time for everyone in Texas to band together and use their collective heads-do NOT let dissention reign among the ranks. The trend on this board in attitude towards authorities is going south...whoever is propagating this needs to stop right now and give people back their dignity-Texans just carry on and do what you do best..we will get through this and we will help each other-you other panic-mongers need to disperse.

Nothing is helter skelter here in Texas that I am aware of. At this point it all appears to be a well oiled machine that is constantly in motion. Things are much different than the panic that happened with Rita evacs. Some may disagree with when certain things are being done and some probably have no idea what all is being done and is in motion already. Making blanket statements that these officials do not know what they are doing are wrong, plain and simple. Will it all go smoothly? Maybe not, it usually doesn't all work as planned but there are many things in place including contingency plans I am sure.

[txag2005]

This whole thing seems unreal to me. Massive pressure drop, hurricane force winds that stretch out 100+ miles and hardly any evacuations. I've already made the move to North Houston, but I'm very nervous for the rest of the people in our rather large storm surge zones in Galveston/Harris Counties. At least Brazoria County got a full mandatory evacuation.

I don't see most Houston businesses closed before Friday, and they predict TS force winds during the day Friday.

I really wish this wasn't happening.....

[tolakram]

For those fretting that Ike is going too far north please double check the sat views.

loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir4.html



Looks pretty close to me.

[CypressMike]

This whole thing seems unreal to me. Massive pressure drop, hurricane force winds that stretch out 100+ miles and hardly any evacuations. I've already made the move to North Houston, but I'm very nervous for the rest of the people in our rather large storm surge zones in Galveston/Harris Counties. At least Brazoria County got a full mandatory evacuation.

I don't see most Houston businesses closed before Friday, and they predict TS force winds during the day Friday.

I really wish this wasn't happening.....

I think this entirely intentional. They are slowly ramping up the rhetoric in strategic locations to prevent mass hysteria and huge traffic back-ups. I think they'll get the folks out in time...but just in time. I think they did the same thing in New Orleans for Gustav and it worked great.

[Janie2006]

Ike is also expanding, so to speak, so there will be the "optical illusions" to watch for as the hurricane chugs into the central Gulf.

[Ixolib]

After Katrina, I reviewed all of the hurricanes that had reached category five intensity in the Gulf. Regardless of intensity at landfall, all but one had a storm surge typical of category five heights.

Please remember this if you are in a low lying area.

EXCELLENT POINT, David... If folks could seriously get a grip on this very concept, that would make all the difference in the world. Low lying, or even up to 30', this is a very real issue that I believe many don't get. I surely didn't "get it" before Katrina, but surely do now. And, given the size of Ike, this will be even more evident at landfall than a much smaller major - say like Camille!!

IF ANYONE HAS QUESTIONS ABOUT SURGE/STORM SIZE/LANDFALL IMPACT, just ask any of us from the MS coast who were there on 08/29/05. We'll be happy to pass on our experiences....

[Dean4Storms]

For those fretting that Ike is going too far north please double check the sat views.

loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir4.html



Looks pretty close to me.

That is an old pic, it is NW of that location in that pic.

[cycloneye]

Lets stay on the topic of Ike and not stray into Texas who does what or not.

[6SpeedTA95]

For those fretting that Ike is going too far north please double check the sat views.

loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir4.html



Looks pretty close to me.

That is an old pic, it is NW of that location in that pic.

The timestamp isn't that old, about an hour.

[RL3AO]

Looking at recon and satellite, it appears that it might be starting to move WNW.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm looking at a 01:15 pic

[txag2005]

This whole thing seems unreal to me. Massive pressure drop, hurricane force winds that stretch out 100+ miles and hardly any evacuations. I've already made the move to North Houston, but I'm very nervous for the rest of the people in our rather large storm surge zones in Galveston/Harris Counties. At least Brazoria County got a full mandatory evacuation.

I don't see most Houston businesses closed before Friday, and they predict TS force winds during the day Friday.

I really wish this wasn't happening.....

I think this entirely intentional. They are slowly ramping up the rhetoric in strategic locations to prevent mass hysteria and huge traffic back-ups. I think they'll get the folks out in time...but just in time. I think they did the same thing in New Orleans for Gustav and it worked great.

That's a great point, as I just checked the Houston metro area traffic maps and everything is clear except for some areas near downtown (prob due to construction). I believe around this time during Rita, the roads were already gridlocked.

That said, it still doesn't help calm the nerves. My only concern with slow or lacking evacs is most businesses will not follow suit until those decisions are made. School and work can keep someone who feels they need to leave from being able that. That's my main concern. Other than that, I agree with what they doing if it helps avoid gridlock and we can ensure coastal areas are evacuated accordingly.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looking at recon and satellite, it appears that it might be starting to move WNW.

I agree, it looks like it is starting to move to the WNW ever so slowly.... It maybe a wobble but i doubt it.