ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Jason_B]

Why downgrade it to a cat 1/2 when it will more than likely be a 3 again in a matter of hours?

[rockyman]

This is still low-end Cat 3 pressure...even if the winds aren't:

[HouTXmetro]

The eye looks Horrible on this WV Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[rockyman]

I'm watching the IR loop nervously...I believe that the center is getting deeper into the convection...and we might see the heavy convection "swing" around the south side of the storm within the next hour.

[superfly]

Why downgrade it to a cat 1/2 when it will more than likely be a 3 again in a matter of hours?

Because that's what the empirical evidence shows right now, rather than conjecture about what it will or will not do in the future?

[Derek Ortt]

This is still low-end Cat 3 pressure...even if the winds aren't:

there is no such thing as cat 3 pressure

[rockyman]

discussion out:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[HarlequinBoy]

The NHC says a landfall at an intensity of 115kts per the 11 AM discussion.

[Dean4Storms]

Lets pray for all these people who stand to lose life and property that this storm continues to weaken!!

[ROCK]

The eye looks Horrible on this WV Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

yeah, maybe the US dropped an cceBerg in the LC..... Shear is undercutting Gus in a big way...this doesnt even look like an eye....maybe an eye "like feature".....

[jasons2k]

Maybe a pro met can chime-in, but isn't the ridge to the north a bit stronger than forecasted?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_pres.html

Also, if you loop this, it's building quite nicely.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=3

the eye has disappeared in the last hour

[rockyman]

Convection trying to wrap around south side:

[inda_iwall]

Between shear and dry air, it is on the ropes for sure. Why is it everyone seems to not want to believe it is weakening? The pros all say it is, data reflects it, sat images and WV loops confirm.

[deltadog03]

Jason, IMO here is the thing...Gus is and has been speeding up. The ridge has and is filling in, but IMO he is gonna outrun that to feel any further west movement. Models might be in agreement trackwise..( which I am having doubts) but there speed is not correct. 24 hours to go to landfall (there about)

[Evac3]

I'm in SETX and am looking at this mandatory evac and wondering if it's REALLY necessary...

What do y'all see with the strength and timing of the ridge? Will it be down and strong enough to possibly push Gustav west before landfall? Even if it's pushed west after landfall, do y'all think it will bring it close enough to my area that I should evacuate? (My decision will not totally be based on y'all's answers... I'm looking at all information. I just want opinions. Pros? Anybody?)

[ColdFusion]

Between shear and dry air, it is on the ropes for sure. Why is it everyone seems to not want to believe it is weakening? The pros all say it is, data reflects it, sat images and WV loops confirm.

looks that way. thankfully, the 'storm of the century' is looking very unlikely.

[Smurfwicked]

I'm in SETX and am looking at this mandatory evac and wondering if it's REALLY necessary...

What do y'all see with the strength and timing of the ridge? Will it be down and strong enough to possible push Gustav west before landfall? Even if it's pushed west after landfall, do y'all think it will bring it close enough to my area that I should evacuate? (My decision will not totally be based on y'all's answers... I'm looking at all information. I just want opinions. Pros? Anybody?)

I'm in north Beaumont wondering the same thing for the time being. But note that my car & truck is ready to go and can be out the driveway in 30 minutes if need be, but I'm waiting to get more information for now.

edit: But if I was in Orange I most likely would of already been on the road.

[rockyman]

I distinctly remember the weather people calling Frederic the "storm of the century" back when it was closing in on Mobile. I was only 6 years old, but I can still hear those words coming from the radio. And, although it "only" hit as a borderline Cat 3/4...FOR MOBILE, IT WAS THE STORM OF THE CENTURY

[tallywx]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.