ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[tallywx]

The 91 kts was found in the NE quad., where there isn't deep convection. That convection on the west side was producing ~80 kts flight level winds. So even assuming a 100% conversion in that bit of deep convection still calculates out to 80 kts. Again, category 1.

Then send the NHC a complaint if it makes you feel better, but it's a category 3 until they say otherwise. But for now, stop misleading people please.

I'm not sure how reporting the actual HARD SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE straight from the recon. source is misleading in any way. Here's a friendly wager, and I'm serious about it - I will send you a $100 personal check or cash if in the post-storm analysis conducted after the hurricane season is over, they say that the intensity the storm was at right now is category 3 and don't downgrade it. But if it is downgraded in the final analysis, you have to pay me $100. Deal?

[cpdaman]

well there ARE certain politics involved in not wanting to "jump the gun" and changing a forecast from a cat 4 to a weakening forecast. IMO any promet will tell you this.

but the last frame at 14.45 showing a deterioration in satelite appearance on wv has got to have people a "tad" more hopeful, (since it is over the warmest water now and doing this) .......

and yes things can improve and listen to the NHC always they are the top pros

[debbiet]

FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC

Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[apocalypt-flyer]

Sorry but those few posts by tallywx are some of the most thoughtless and ridiculous I have read here in quite some time. No one should let their guard down and even if Gustav does not strengthen as much as anticipated this will still be a well dangerous tropical system.

I bet you wouldn't play the whole affair down like you do if this thing raced up the east coast towards NC.

[Jason_B]

Good morning everyone...

I don't think anyone will critize the NHC - again, it's intensity forecasting that all meteorologists struggle with - had Gustav been 100 miles further to the west, it would have missed Cuba entirely and would likely still be a Cat 4 - or even a Cat 5...

Those who evacuated would be glad to return home - and still find it there, so, though it's stressful to evacuate (don't I know), it's always better when nothing serious happens, versus what could happen...

This reminds me of infamous Hurricane Gilbert (1988), that had the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (888 mb) - once it made landfall on the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, though forecasters feared it would reintensify to a Cat 5 and strike Texas, it never did, only managing Cat 3 status once it reached northern Mexico...

Every hurricane is different...

Frank

lol It's funny how you pop in now, but you were nowhere to be seen when it was a cat 4 yesterday.

[ColdFusion]

FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC

Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

This is nearly an hour old.

[tallywx]

Sorry but those few posts by tallywx are some of the most thoughtless and ridiculous I have read here in quite some time. No one should let their guard down and even if Gustav does not strengthen as much as anticipated this will still be a well dangerous tropical system.

I bet you wouldn't play the whole affair down like you do if this thing raced up the east coast towards NC.

I probably would. Scientific evidence is scientific evidence, and for me, that's where the buck stops. We'll get to perhaps test that theory with Hanna at the end of this week.

[SoupBone]

Sorry but those few posts by tallywx are some of the most thoughtless and ridiculous I have read here in quite some time. No one should let their guard down and even if Gustav does not strengthen as much as anticipated this will still be a well dangerous tropical system.

I bet you wouldn't play the whole affair down like you do if this thing raced up the east coast towards NC.

I'm just looking for honesty. I have family up here in Baton Rouge that came from Houma (Terrebonne Parish) and even a glimmer of hope is better than yesterdays gloom and doom forecast. If it's a Cat 1 say it's a Cat 1. I want honesty and not hype. He doesn't look good right now. I know it can change but I want up to date current facts. Thanks guys...


EDIT: Also for the record I'm not downplaying this thing AT ALL I just want to know why all the inconsistencies all of a sudden.

[Hurricaneman13]

I read that Hurricane Opal of 1995 (even though it was very different from Gustav) was a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph, but it weakened down to a minimal cat 3 with 115 mph in the Gulf of Mexico.

[cpdaman]

sorry those posts by tallwx have been some of the most accurate and foretelling as well.

it is a confused mind that can't tell the difference between preparing for the official forecast AND digesting the actual datea or seemingly thinking one MUST dismiss actual data or yell at those that give it.

no one is taking this lightly , it is easy to have a confused mind about these conversations but everyone should realize *****saying this is weakening is NOT taking this lightly******** everyone knows this could re-strengthen and everyone prepares with the nhc guidance in mind

[tallywx]

Sorry but those few posts by tallywx are some of the most thoughtless and ridiculous I have read here in quite some time. No one should let their guard down and even if Gustav does not strengthen as much as anticipated this will still be a well dangerous tropical system.

I bet you wouldn't play the whole affair down like you do if this thing raced up the east coast towards NC.

I'm just looking for honesty. I have family up here in Baton Rouge that came from Houma (Terrebonne Parish) and even a glimmer of hope is better than yesterdays gloom and doom forecast. If it's a Cat 1 say it's a Cat 1. I want honesty and not hype. He doesn't look good right now. I know it can change but I want up to date current facts. Thanks guys...

Just as long as you realize that it could very well re-strengthen into a major hurricane and act accordingly, then yes, you seem mature enough to realize that as of RIGHT NOW, recon. data only supports it as a Cat 1 currently.

[Kennethb]

As I recall, Gus was just about written off as it traversed Hispanola. This indicates the overall energy and dynamics are strong, so the potential for intensification is there. Everyone should prepare for the worst, hope for better.

[Derek Ortt]

the 91KT wa sin the north quad, I believe, not the NE. I'll need to check

[Frank2]

Jason_B,

First, I was away from the computer for most of yesterday (however, as Sanibel knows, I did post here yesterday morning), second, like some of the other "veterans" on this board, we tend to step back when many are panicking and posting over each other, as they did yesterday when they were trying to guess what each wobble meant - it's almost a waste of typing to try to convey any sensible thoughts at times like that...

Frank

[soonertwister]

Sorry but those few posts by tallywx are some of the most thoughtless and ridiculous I have read here in quite some time. No one should let their guard down and even if Gustav does not strengthen as much as anticipated this will still be a well dangerous tropical system.

I bet you wouldn't play the whole affair down like you do if this thing raced up the east coast towards NC.

I probably would. Scientific evidence is scientific evidence, and for me, that's where the buck stops. We'll get to perhaps test that theory with Hanna at the end of this week.

Apparently you didn't see my earlier post. The VDM that you refer to for downgrading was really too late to update the entire advisory package, so they went on the basis of the previous one instead, from not too much earlier. Since they are reasoning that the storm is going to restrengthen to a cat-4, it probably made no sense at all to them to change everything they were getting ready to post based upon one lone late recon.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 311115.txt

[Derek Ortt]

east quad, not north quad

Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad

[SoupBone]

Sorry but those few posts by tallywx are some of the most thoughtless and ridiculous I have read here in quite some time. No one should let their guard down and even if Gustav does not strengthen as much as anticipated this will still be a well dangerous tropical system.

I bet you wouldn't play the whole affair down like you do if this thing raced up the east coast towards NC.

I'm just looking for honesty. I have family up here in Baton Rouge that came from Houma (Terrebonne Parish) and even a glimmer of hope is better than yesterdays gloom and doom forecast. If it's a Cat 1 say it's a Cat 1. I want honesty and not hype. He doesn't look good right now. I know it can change but I want up to date current facts. Thanks guys...

Just as long as you realize that it could very well re-strengthen into a major hurricane and act accordingly, then yes, you seem mature enough to realize that as of RIGHT NOW, recon. data only supports it as a Cat 1 currently.

My family is not going anywhere at all. They are staying here till it's over. I'm the one as a weather enthusiast looking for REAL data and not some of the media hype that I see. That's why all morning I've been trying to figure out how the Vortex Message looked so odd but the NHC was saying Cat 3. Guys if we can't be honest HERE then where? I see tons of people with disclaimers on there threads but yet some people still don't want to discuss the possibility that the NHC is just keeping people in check (which I understand). BUT here of all places we should have the honest truth and with data this shouldn't be that hard. Thanks again guys...

[debbiet]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN[/quote]

This is nearly an hour old.[/quote]
Yes it is...but my point was that the NHC is not lost to the fact that Gustav looks bad and that their intensity statement is/was "generous"...so it is true that the scientific evidence really doesn't support a Category 3 hurricane right now...even THEY acknowledge that, I just think (as others have said) that they have to be careful about downgrading with regard to public response, AND the model guidance which suggests to them that it my re-intensify.

[StormTracker]

FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!!

[tallywx]

Question for the satellite analysts on this board: if Gustav is being impacted by southerly wind shear, then why do I see high-cloud "tendrils" emanating from his core reaching out towards the south? Wouldn't this indicate a lack of southerly shear, or are those tendrils at a different level of the storm?