ATL: IKE Discussion

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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8241 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:37 pm

terrapintransit wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Sabanic wrote:I know someone ( SC ) may get aggravated with me for posting this, and asking this question, but kind of regional so I'll ask anyway. There is still a considerable weakness if I am looking at this right, and I remember someone saying this morning it would be gone more than likely by this afternoon. It's still there. Anyone care to shed some light on this for me as to what effects this is having on Ike other than probably making him go NW. Thanks

Image



No comment. :lol:


The weakness was just booted east so IKE should be starting the wnw turn very shortly....


He started an hour or so ago.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Re:

#8242 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:38 pm

jasons wrote:They must evacuate Galveston. Now. Period.

That's all I will say about the matter.
I couldn't agree more. If the track from the NHC is correct, then the first effects could already be arriving by Friday. That doesn't give the coast much time at all to evacuate, so they need to get going now!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8243 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:39 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Well it definitely now looks like the inner eyewall is collapsing and that the cdo is trying to expand. If this expands to a large strength over the next day or so as the core tightens, then watch for a significant increase in winds. A storm can only stay at 100mph with a pressure of 940mb for so long..

If the eyewall is in fact collapsing pressure will probably rise while it reorganizes which would help to keep wind increases at least for the near term fairly minimal.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8244 Postby superdeluxe » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:39 pm

El Nino wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:Derek's newest forecast is not good, not good at all for Houston, I hope people have taken this storm seriously

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103143


HOLY CRAP ! :eek: a 220km/h towards Houston would simply be devastating !


Anyone have longitude/lattitude on projected landfall? Want to bring it up on google maps.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8245 Postby SMNederlandTX » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:39 pm

Is the next update at 10pm central time or....?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8246 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:39 pm

Ixolib wrote:
jinftl wrote:Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.
Fortunately, though, the damage was superficial - not structural. Quick and easy to fix. Looks bad - and would BE bad if you get sliced by a piece of falling glass.

Generally speaking, structures "closer to the ground" do just fine in most cases, even in cat 3/4 winds. Sure, they take a hit with the wind, but for the most part, they remain structurally sound. Again, quick and easy to fix. This, of course, is not including tornados and mini-vortices. With those, all bets are off!!

But surge is a whole different beast. Not quick to fix, not easy to fix, renders most structures it enters to be inhabitable, and often times, condemed.

While Wilma did her deed, much of her damage was not to a point where it rendered dwellings "structurally" impaired because her impact was primarily wind only. If surge had been an issue with Wilma, she'd still be in the news today!!!

Hide from the wind, but run from the water...

Andrew, Hugo, Dean, Felix, and Janet survivors would beg to differ with that statement if they resided in poorly constructed structures. Even well constructed structures received wind damage during these TCs, though they remained intact during the ordeals. Keep in mind that the costs for replacements/addendums due to wind damage (including broken windows, lost tiles, etc.) are significant as well.

I think it is dangerous to downplay surge AND wind... strong TS/Cat 1 winds can cause significant structural damage to unsound/poorly constructed buildings/residences.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#8247 Postby Sabanic » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:40 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
dwg71 wrote:sabanic, its interacting with ridge now, notice a more western motion the last two hours.



Thanks for the explanation dwg71.


I see that dwg, but looks to be a bit east of the next forecast plot. Thanks for the response though. Like I said, and I surely wish Ike would not make landfall anywhere, but until he is a good bit further west and north of our area I'll be concerned for the homefront.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8248 Postby Melly » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:40 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:It's getting scary in the Golden Triangle....Nothing organized as of yet, schools are still on for tomorrow. EMO is telling people they don't have to resources to get them out and this could be a "go or stay if you want to" type deal tomorrow.


Oh yay another SET lol... I'm in Port Authur, and we are waiting on my husbands check to clear the bank which useally does by Midnight, and we are headed out of here...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8249 Postby SMNederlandTX » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:41 pm

TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8250 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:43 pm

SMNederlandTX wrote:TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?


If they said that, they misspoke.

WNW, without exception, right along the NHC path.
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#8251 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:43 pm

The eyewall itself has strengthened about 15 kt this evening. At 4 pm, the Cat 2 winds were confined to the distant NE bands. Now they are in the eyewall as well (98 kt FL = about 85 kt at the surface).
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Re:

#8252 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:43 pm

deltadog03 wrote:If that steering is right it will have to move generally NW.....Thats why I havn't changed my map for landfall yet....



Where is your map? I'd like to see it.


Thanks!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8253 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:44 pm

SMNederlandTX wrote:TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?


Most likely a slip of the tongue. I haven't seen anything to indicate he is moving more than NW.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8254 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:44 pm

SMNederlandTX wrote:TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?



The TWC must be looking at another storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Re: ATL IKE / Obs / Preparations / Web Cams / All of Texas Coast

#8255 Postby Doc Seminole » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:45 pm

Remember to check the bouys if they'll load, they get busy during storms.

I believe wave heights got to 60 feet+ with Katrina. Might give a clue as to how bad the surge is going to be.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

God Bless you all in Texas, (especially the 14th Congressional District of Texas home of Congressman Ron Paul, R-TX ) and God Bless the United States of America! :flag:

8-) Doc
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8256 Postby bayoubebe » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:45 pm

SMNederlandTX wrote:TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?


ugh-oh, NNW??
Are you sure you heard that FIRST "North" correctly?
Last edited by bayoubebe on Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8257 Postby superdeluxe » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:46 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Well, since so many seem to love his input, I surely do wish he - and others like him - would bring much more attention to the surge potential than they do to the wind potential.

...



I think he is showing the right amount of severity of surge:

Ike has a large wind field which had been indicated by guidance since at least 3-4 days ago. RECON found the secondary wind maximum more than 100 miles away from the center. This will likely result in a storm surge which is higher than in a smaller storm of similar intensity!
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Re: Re:

#8258 Postby O Town » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:46 pm

HarlequinBoy wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:If that steering is right it will have to move generally NW.....Thats why I havn't changed my map for landfall yet....



Where is your map? I'd like to see it.


Thanks!

Maybe hes speaking of this one.


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103095
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8259 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:47 pm

bayoubebe wrote:
SMNederlandTX wrote:TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?


ugh-oh, NNW?? How will this effect the LA. coast now?


They must have screwed up and said NNW meaning WNW. At best it is heading slightly north of WNW to South of Northwest. There is absolutly no indication of a NNW motion. IMHO.
Tim
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8260 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:47 pm

Sabanic wrote:I know someone ( SC ) may get aggravated with me for posting this, and asking this question, but kind of regional so I'll ask anyway. There is still a considerable weakness if I am looking at this right, and I remember someone saying this morning it would be gone more than likely by this afternoon. It's still there. Anyone care to shed some light on this for me as to what effects this is having on Ike other than probably making him go NW. Thanks



Well, one thing that is happening is that currently Ike is basically stuck in the gap between the 2 ridges, which is why his movement is slow. He is moving basically NW - WNW under 10 mph. If the pattern persists, Ike will continue to be somewhat stuck... but the weakness is supposed to fill in soon, and Ike will accelerate W/NW
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