ATL: IKE Discussion

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Currently, the only thing happening in Jefferson County is the voluntary evac of Sabine Pass and other low lying areas. We did hear a rumor however that a mandatory evac for SETX could be called as early as 6:00AM tomorrow. Some area businesses and trade schools closed early today based on that info. On the other hand, my son had football practice this afternoon so go figure.

[Stormcenter]

TWC just said Ike is moving NNW....I thought someone on here said he was moving WNW?

ugh-oh, NNW?? How will this effect the LA. coast now?

They must have screwed up and said NNW meaning WNW. At best it is heading slightly north of WNW to South of Northwest. There is absolutly no indication of a NNW motion. IMHO.
Tim

Don't you love the TWC? I miss John Hope.

[Senobia]

It's getting scary in the Golden Triangle....Nothing organized as of yet, schools are still on for tomorrow. EMO is telling people they don't have to resources to get them out and this could be a "go or stay if you want to" type deal tomorrow.

Okay, are you posting links to this stuff? You've been popping in and out with bits and pieces of info..none of which I have heard before.

I know you're in the media to some degree (I forget to which), but where can other people go to hear what you're hearing?

[Ixolib]

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

Fortunately, though, the damage was superficial - not structural. Quick and easy to fix. Looks bad - and would BE bad if you get sliced by a piece of falling glass.

Generally speaking, structures "closer to the ground" do just fine in most cases, even in cat 3/4 winds. Sure, they take a hit with the wind, but for the most part, they remain structurally sound. Again, quick and easy to fix. This, of course, is not including tornados and mini-vortices. With those, all bets are off!!

But surge is a whole different beast. Not quick to fix, not easy to fix, renders most structures it enters to be inhabitable, and often times, condemed.

While Wilma did her deed, much of her damage was not to a point where it rendered dwellings "structurally" impaired because her impact was primarily wind only. If surge had been an issue with Wilma, she'd still be in the news today!!!

Hide from the wind, but run from the water...

Andrew, Hugo, Dean, Felix, and Janet survivors would beg to differ with that statement if they resided in poorly constructed structures. Keep in mind that the costs for replacements/addendums due to wind damage (including broken windows, lost tiles, etc.) are significant as well.

I've always wondered why people who choose to live in hurricane prone areas think it's okay to live in poorly constructed structures. Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

I'm not saying wind damage isn't expensive to recover from - at least from the homeowner's perspective. I'm simply saying it's generaly not a "life changing" event like surge is.

I'll bet there were pool enclosures that were destroyed during Wilma that netted a pretty good return from the insurance companys for some!!! I mean, there are some pool enclosures in Miami/Dade that cost enough for me to build a whole house and live comfortably ever after!!

[Stormcenter]

New advisory out....still south of Houston.

[gboudx]

Just in from Jeff.

Mandatory Evacuation Order for all evac. zones in Brazoria County at 800am Thursday.

Mandatory Evacuation Orders for areas S of I-35 in Matagorda County.

Mandatory Evacuation Order for W end Galveston, Bolivar, Kemah, Dickinson, and other low lying areas of Galveston County starting at 800am Thursday.

All Tolls are waived on all Harris County Toll Roads

[dwg71]

New advisory out....still south of Houston.

not by much

[Emmett_Brown]

Last few images on IR show what looks like some shear eating into the W half of the storm again, like this morning. Also, looks like he has slowed again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If that steering is right it will have to move generally NW.....Thats why I havn't changed my map for landfall yet....

Where is your map? I'd like to see it.


Thanks!

Maybe hes speaking of this one.


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103095

One pro-met who keeps Texas on the weak side, anyway.

[MiamiensisWx]

Fortunately, though, the damage was superficial - not structural. Quick and easy to fix. Looks bad - and would BE bad if you get sliced by a piece of falling glass.

Generally speaking, structures "closer to the ground" do just fine in most cases, even in cat 3/4 winds. Sure, they take a hit with the wind, but for the most part, they remain structurally sound. Again, quick and easy to fix. This, of course, is not including tornados and mini-vortices. With those, all bets are off!!

But surge is a whole different beast. Not quick to fix, not easy to fix, renders most structures it enters to be inhabitable, and often times, condemed.

While Wilma did her deed, much of her damage was not to a point where it rendered dwellings "structurally" impaired because her impact was primarily wind only. If surge had been an issue with Wilma, she'd still be in the news today!!!

Hide from the wind, but run from the water...

Andrew, Hugo, Dean, Felix, and Janet survivors would beg to differ with that statement if they resided in poorly constructed structures. Even well constructed structures received wind damage during these TCs, though they remained intact during the ordeals. Keep in mind that the costs for replacements/addendums due to wind damage (including broken windows, lost tiles, etc.) are significant as well.

I think it is dangerous to downplay surge AND wind... strong TS/Cat 1 winds can cause significant structural damage to unsound/poorly constructed buildings/residences.

Corozal Town, Belize after the eyewall of Hurricane Janet in 1955:

http://www.northernbelize.com/grc/hist_recent05.jpg

Lakes by the Bay (poorly attached roofs) after Hurricane Andrew's eyewall near Homestead, Florida in 1992:

http://1-22infantry.org/history/andrew2.jpg

The Wilma photographs from Fort Lauderdale are valid as well...

Thanks for the response.

[MHurricanes]

Pressure 940.5..........

During a live interview a few minutes ago on HurricaneCity.com, Jeff Masters said there's a 30 to 50 percent chance that Ike will continue to strengthen all the way to landfall. He said the "Wilma-like" storm is so large that it will probably shield itself from any shear or dry air that might try to weaken it prior to landfall.

- MHurricanes

MH, i know you said this was live, but is there a archived link to this on his website?

Jeff is no longer being interviewed, but the host is providing is plenty of the latest information about Ike.

[Javlin]

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

Fortunately, though, the damage was superficial - not structural. Quick and easy to fix. Looks bad - and would BE bad if you get sliced by a piece of falling glass.

Generally speaking, structures "closer to the ground" do just fine in most cases, even in cat 3/4 winds. Sure, they take a hit with the wind, but for the most part, they remain structurally sound. Again, quick and easy to fix. This, of course, is not including tornados and mini-vortices. With those, all bets are off!!

But surge is a whole different beast. Not quick to fix, not easy to fix, renders most structures it enters to be inhabitable, and often times, condemed.

While Wilma did her deed, much of her damage was not to a point where it rendered dwellings "structurally" impaired because her impact was primarily wind only. If surge had been an issue with Wilma, she'd still be in the news today!!!

Hide from the wind, but run from the water...

Andrew, Hugo, Dean, Felix, and Janet survivors would beg to differ with that statement if they resided in poorly constructed structures. Even well constructed structures received wind damage during these TCs, though they remained intact during the ordeals. Keep in mind that the costs for replacements/addendums due to wind damage (including broken windows, lost tiles, etc.) are significant as well.

I think it is dangerous to downplay surge AND wind... strong TS/Cat 1 winds can cause significant structural damage to unsound/poorly constructed buildings/residences.

A true Cat 5 will wipe out just about anything But Ixolib and I have been through camille to katrina on the coast and water KILLS and we are talking about better constructed homes here.

[Senobia]

I've always wondered why people who choose to live in hurricane prone areas think it's okay to live in poorly constructed structures. Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

Choose your wording carefully. Some of us were born here of no fault of our own..and have not yet been afforded with the opportunity in life to move on to points on higher ground.

Further, some of us have not been afforded with the opportunity in life to live in newly constructed mega-homes made of materials with the highest safety rating.

Some of us are forced to do the best we can with what we have where we are..which isn't much.

[MiamiensisWx]

A true Cat 5 will wipe out just about anything But Ixolib and I have been through camille to katrina on the coast and water KILLS and we are talking about better constructed homes here.

I certainly agree with you and Ixolib in regards to surge... I have emphasized the surge threat in preceding posts. I was merely emphasizing that wind damage is significant (in different ways) as well - I experienced Wilma and other TCs in SE FL...

[gboudx]

10pm update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1823418#p1823418

He says 80-100mph sustained in Harris. Surge levels increased above earlier estimates.

[deltadog03]

the weakness is STILLL there....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Stormcenter]

the weakness is STILLL there....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

It's not going to happen.

[SMNederlandTX]

Jim Cantore just said it was moving NW at 7mph on TWC.

[Stormcenter]

Jim Cantore just said it was moving NW at 7mph on TWC.

That's the NHC info.

[SMNederlandTX]

Yes, that is where he said it came from.....it slowed down, didn't it? Thought it was at 8mph at the last update.

Jim Cantore just said it was moving NW at 7mph on TWC.

That's the NHC info.