ATL: IKE Discussion

[O Town]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110246
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB.

[cycloneye]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The records are kepted for the size of tropical storm force winds, so Ike is now the size of Katrina with Tropical storm force winds 230 nmi's. Hurricane force, Ike is still 10 nmi smaller then Katrina.

[superfly]

NHC's new landfall looks slightly north, around Bay City.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Something seems to be eroding the deeper convection West of the center. Dry air, perhaps?

[Nederlander]

eastern shift for the NHC....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211330.shtml?5day#contents

[Javlin]

the weakness is STILLL there....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

I saw that too DeltaDog but it seems though like it being steered by the 500mb chart??It does puzzle me though why the slow down again?and the cloud tops say more N movement.I hate these weak steering currents such a pain in the butt.

[CronkPSU]

that is a pretty big track adjustment from the naked eye...would put houston definitely in cat 1 winds if that verified

[southerngale]

I'm pretty sure that's the biggest shift north they've made all day. Ugh, my stomach is turning.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Regarding NW vs WNW....here's the GFDL plots from last night and where he was expected to start heading more toward the WNW.

24 24.6 86.3 311./ 8.5
30 25.0 87.1 295./ 8.0
36 25.3 88.1 286./ 8.8
42 25.6 89.1 285./ 9.4
48 25.7 90.2 278./10.1
54 25.9 91.3 279./10.3

A recent VDM showed the center at 24.7N 086.4W, so the 24 hour mark was petty much spot-on, and the GFDL short term from last night looks good. Notice that it wasn't until now, near 25N, is where he was expected to start bending WNW, from 311 degrees to 295 etc.

Game on.

[dhweather]

Something seems to be eroding the deeper convection West of the center. Dry air, perhaps?

Correct. But if you watch the water vapor loop, you'll see that the dry air is about to run out and moist air is taking over.

[bob rulz]

eastern shift for the NHC....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211330.shtml?5day#contents

If you follow the line that's the worst possible scenario for Houston.

Of course, that's why you shouldn't focus on the line...

[gatorcane]

the weakness is STILLL there....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

interesting....would be something if Ike decided to shoot through it NW or NNW and not go West. I'm going to watch closely for this possiblity.

[deltadog03]

BTW....The ridge off the SE coast actually shunted EAST tonight....I am not saying this will be perminant, but its not moving W right now.

[CronkPSU]

The records are kepted for the size of tropical storm force winds, so Ike is now the size of Katrina with Tropical storm force winds 230 nmi's. Hurricane force, Ike is still 10 nmi smaller then Katrina.

you mean when Katrina was in this area of the gulf or at her peak?

[bob rulz]

Regarding NW vs WNW....here's the GFDL plots from last night and where he was expected to start heading more toward the WNW.

24 24.6 86.3 311./ 8.5
30 25.0 87.1 295./ 8.0
36 25.3 88.1 286./ 8.8
42 25.6 89.1 285./ 9.4
48 25.7 90.2 278./10.1
54 25.9 91.3 279./10.3

A recent VDM showed the center at 24.7N 086.4W, so the 24 hour mark was petty much spot-on, and the GFDL short term from last night looks good. Notice that it wasn't until now, near 25N, is where he was expected to start bending WNW, from 311 degrees to 295 etc.

Game on.

The GFDL has performed very well this year.

[Ixolib]

I've always wondered why people who choose to live in hurricane prone areas think it's okay to live in poorly constructed structures. Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

Choose your wording carefully. Some of us were born here of no fault of our own..and have not yet been afforded with the opportunity in life to move on to points on higher ground.

Further, some of us have not been afforded with the opportunity in life to live in newly constructed mega-homes made of materials with the highest safety rating.

Some of us are forced to do the best we can with what we have where we are..which isn't much.

Can't agree with you more!! I feel you're situation. But I also know virtually all of us are capable of leaving a poorly constructed structure before a storm's landfall and going someplace that is more substantial to ride it out. After the fact, we are equally capable of picking up the pieces and doing again the best we can with what we have.

I too was born in a hurricane prone area and have had limited financial means most of my life - including now!! But if I'm gonna continue to live where hurricanes make landfall, I'm gonna do everything I can in the meantime to make my dwelling survivable to the winds of a hurricane. As for the surge of a hurricane, ain't much I can do there..... 'Cept leave.

Still saying, winds are generally survivable - even with blown out windows, blown roofing, etc. Surge, however, is generally not survivable.

If one's home is inundated with wind, it will, for the most part, be okay afterwards.
If one's home is inundated with water, it will, for the most part, be completely destroyed afterwards.

[superfly]

If you follow the line that's the worst possible scenario for Houston.

Of course, that's why you shouldn't focus on the line...

The line just connects the dots, the landfall is actually west of where the "line" crosses the coast, closer to Matagorda.

[gatorcane]

BTW....The ridge off the SE coast actually shunted EAST tonight....I am not saying this will be perminant, but its not moving W right now.

Indeed it is interesting to note --- lets see how Ike responds.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not a full forecast at this point, but I wanted to say something for everyone to hear. Ike will have a VERY large surge. For this reason, I would reccommend that everyone in the Level A from TX to LA need to prepare and/or evacuate if you are in a flood prone area. People in Tampa Bay, a couple hundred miles away, were flooded by storm surge today. I would highly recommend that everyone in Galveston and Houston evacuate in zones A, B, and C as soon as possible. Hurricane force winds will be very wide spread with TS force winds expanding much further...and well into SW LA. This has the ability to have effects similar to Rita or Katrina (without the NOLA Bowl). They were both very large, had low pressures and were known for surge and evacuations. Ike is known for 50' waves and pretty bad surge. I am not hyping this...this is a deadly situation and needs to be taken real.