ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion. Did I miss something?

For those of you looking for floater pics

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Radar, and it is not NE I said NNE or slightly west of that.

According to the last two fixes, it is still on about a 335 course. Using short term radar loops to determine course is not going to get you the accuracy needed now.

Yea the world is round last tiem i checked..LOL

[KWT]

The problem is the LLC is not stacked up at all, this probably means its less organised on a structual level then it looks.

LLC is moving NW but the general circulation and convection is heading near due west, remember yesterday the LLC took a while to respond to the change in motion.

Remember what wxman57 said yesterday, not to get too caught up in the very short term motions, esp during systems that are poorly stacked like this one...

[johngaltfla]

Isn't there an expected turn straight north? Is it at all possible that turn north is happening a little earlier?

Only if the ridge starts to break down faster today. It all depends on that.

[KayFL]

CycloneEye - you probably don't remember me, I don't post often, just read, but I have been around in 2002 - member 58 I think. Anyway, I now live in Atlanta and have to drive to Tampa tomorrow - how bad do you think it will be for me driving there?
Thanks,
KayFL

[Sanibel]

Blustery breezes picking up here under overcast.

[Noles2006]

Isn't there an expected turn straight north? Is it at all possible that turn north is happening a little earlier?

I don't see that... yet.

Still looks about 335 to me, and she appears to be strengthening...

[storms in NC]

.Okay I can't get the NHC page at all. I guess to many people

[deltadog03]

Radar looks messy, but not horrible. Getting better, but slowly. Guess the EURO wasn't so bad afterall huh?? I love that model, but discounted it too, like many on here since it was such an outlier.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

almost due North movement according to the latest recon fix

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

In that loop you can see the MLC (I think) well NE of the center. If you turn on tropical points you'll also see the location where the LLC should be and sure enough you can almost see it, nearly exposed as the MLC moves off to the NE.

That's my amateur observation of that loop anyway.

[KWT]

Also it does look like its getting better wrapped up but only aroundd the MLC.

I think the LLC is soon going to get shunted east and get under that increasingly impressive wrapping thats occuring at mid levels.

[txwatcher91]

According to the last two fixes, it is still on about a 335 course. Using short term radar loops to determine course is not going to get you the accuracy needed now.

Yea the world is round last tiem i checked..LOL[/quote]

Radar is showing it at 4000ft from the radar, so the would have some part of the LLC I would imagine. KWT, convection normally moves west as it rotates around the LLC. Look at visibles and you can see the tallest storms mostly moving N and NNE indicating a change in movement is imminent, last night the same thing happend when it turned and I called the NW turn correctly.

[Sanibel]

Trust me, you'll be seeing a clear center tonight as the d-max combines with Gulf Stream SST's.

[CourierPR]

The problem is the LLC is not stacked up at all, this probably means its less organised on a structual level then it looks.

LLC is moving NW but the general circulation and convection is heading near due west, remember yesterday the LLC took a while to respond to the change in motion.

Remember what wxman57 said yesterday, not to get too caught up in the very short term motions, esp during systems that are poorly stacked like this one...

Convection heading due west? I don't think so.

[Special K]

Dade, Broward & Palm Beach all under a tornado watch until 11:00 p.m. this evening, lots of rain up here in Gardens, but not a whole lot of wind.

[artist]

THe local Mets keep saying an East shift to the track seems likely, is it more likely Fay will track a little more N-NE or N-NW with this slowdown?

I'm waiting for the 12Z guidance to roll in, but am expecting a landfall between Fort Myers and Flamingo with the storm then moving north-northeast, over or just west of Lake Okeechobbee, and then offshore North-Central or Northeast Florida.

- Jay

Jay, we Are 30 miles east of the center bank of the lake, do you think we will just get ts winds still?

[KWT]

Sorry CourierPR I meant due north not due west haha!

also yep I think this is going to be going due north very soon as well.

[Pearl River]

Everyone stay safe.

[gatorcane]

Dade, Broward & Palm Beach all under a tornado watch until 11:00 p.m. this evening, lots of rain up here in Gardens, but not a whole lot of wind.

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
5 products issued by NWS for: 2 Miles NNW Aberdeen FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

TORNADO WATCH 837 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-190300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0837.080818T1625Z-080819T0300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD COLLIER GLADES
HENDRY MIAMI-DADE MONROE
PALM BEACH
$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tropical Storm Wind Warning
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1152 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST GULF COAST
INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND...

.AT 1100 AM EDT 1500 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES, 170 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MIAMI AND 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-181915-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
1152 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WIND EFFECTS UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND
MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI
DADE...METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLOOD WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE DONE OR RUSHED TO COMPLETION. SPIRAL BANDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM FAY ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. ALL STOCKING OF
PROVISIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS IN THE YARD,
TAKE UP ANY TEMPORARY CAMPAIGN OR REAL ESTATE SIGNS AND STORE THEM
INSIDE. TAKE IN OUTSIDE GRILLS AND PATIO FURNITURE. PARK VEHICLES
IN GARAGES OR AWAY FROM TREES. RESIDENTS OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW
LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY WISH TO FIND SHELTER WITH FRIENDS
OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO
ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF FAY MOVES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS.

ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WIND
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS. WINDS
WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 65 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE LA BELLE, CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN AREAS. THERE
IS ABOUT A 4 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL
THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS
OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY
DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF
RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG
DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS
THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 PM EDT.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

AMZ610-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-181700-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-
COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1055 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.NOW...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NUMEROUS SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 1 PM EDT...AS
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BLINDING
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. ALL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT SPEEDS
AROUND 40 MPH.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL BE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS.

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-182000-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...PALM SPRINGS...FLORIDA GARDENS...
ABERDEEN...BOCA WEST...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...COCONUT CREEK...
CORAL SPRINGS...TAMARAC...SUNRISE...PLANTATION...DAVIE...
COOPER CITY...HOLLYWOOD...PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI...
MIAMI GARDENS...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH...DORAL...SOUTH MIAMI...
KENDALL...CUTLER RIDGE...FLAMINGO...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...
BOCA RATON...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...
MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...
HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
746 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL COLLIER...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...
COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY...
INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND MIAMI DADE...INLAND
PALM BEACH...MAINLAND MONROE...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI
DADE AND METRO PALM BEACH.

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* TROPICAL STORM FAY IS NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PARTS OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AS SPIRAL BANDS MOVE ONSHORE THE METRO
ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY WHERE TRAINING OF THE SPIRAL BANDS
OCCURS ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME.

* FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES IS
LIKELY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY.
PONDING OF WATER IN PARKING LOTS AND LOW LYING FIELDS AND
ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE THROUGH
STANDING WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
535 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

CORRECTION TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IN HEADLINES

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-190000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
535 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI TO GET DETAILS ABOUT THE WEATHER EFFECTS
ON SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS TROPICAL STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TROPICAL STORM FAY COULD STILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM FAY AFFECTS SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

VDM Confirms it! Due North Movement with a pressure of 1002 MB

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 16:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Fay1
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 16:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°54'N 81°30'W (23.90N 81.50W)
B. Center Fix Location: 49 miles (79 km) to the SSE (159°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,446m (4,744ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (303°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 36kts (From the NNE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:51:00Z