ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

The eye is maybe 15-20 miles east of trop points but right parallel on the same NHC track.

Looks like Grand Isle, Louisiana barring any westerly turn by the CONUS High.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Just Joshing You]

My family just spoke to my relatives in Cuba and everyone is OK. They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage. I think Charley handled that in 2004. The Cuban government is saying that they expect electricity to be back between 25 to 30 days.

25-30 days... that must seem like a short period of time for them.. I feel so bad for them

[Just Joshing You]

Thats what got me fired up...

Perhaps I should've stated that a bit more judiciously. But it's a fact that some people who live in areas in which they definitely should evacuate for a cat 4-5 would have a different cost/benefit decision analysis if they had the full slate of cold/hard facts at their disposal, even assuming they aren't overly risk averse.




When is a moderator going to warn this kid? Even after it was stated 2 pages ago to STOP this discussion, he keeps bringing it up. Gustav is a Category 3 Hurricane, and if they downgraded it, it would obviously give a false sense of security. Intensity is forecasted to be a mid-range category 4 at landfall, and lowering the intensity to 80 KT at this time would mean that the mandatory evacuations are no longer required, as Mandatory evacs. were only issued for Category 3 or higher from 60 hours out.

Do you honestly believe this is ever going to reach cat 4 again? I mean look at the thing.

I don't know what the intensity will be, but it will be a Major Hurricane at landfall, that much is pretty clear. Tell yourself otherwise, but the only thing that will save it from being a major is a prolonged EWRC or a complete stall in the middle of the gulf. An EWRC could potentially worsen the situation by increasing the wind field, as well.

[Sanibel]

They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage.

Good to hear about your people HURAKAN.

This tree damage report tells you what type of category 4 Gus was.

[tallywx]

The eye is maybe 15-20 miles east of trop points but right parallel on the same NHC track.

Looks like Grand Isle, Louisiana barring any westerly turn by the CONUS High.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Interestingly the 12z GFS has this slowing down and bending towards the west before landfall - such that it actually goes west of Lafayette. I think that this point it's time to throw out the computers and nowcast based on satellite/radar/recon.

[ColdFusion]

My family just spoke to my relatives in Cuba and everyone is OK. They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage. I think Charley handled that in 2004. The Cuban government is saying that they expect electricity to be back between 25 to 30 days.

25-30 days... that must seem like a short period of time for them.. I feel so bad for them

I didnt know Cuba used Entergy too. haha.

[Frank2]

Apparently power is also out in Havana - my favorite elevator music station (530 AM) has been off the air since this time yesterday...

P.S. We are still in the outer fringe of Gustav - we had one rumble of thunder 20 minutes ago that shook this building...

[Hurricaneman13]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/07L.GUSTAV/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

would nee dto closely look at recon info, but maybe a secondary eyewall also formed?

Yeah. Maybe it is going through an eyewall replacement cycle which could explain the weakening.

[tolakram]

Still looking bad? Not in my opinion.



NHC reported most of convection was limited to one tower, looks like additional building on the south side.

[tallywx]

I don't know what the intensity will be, but it will be a Major Hurricane at landfall, that much is pretty clear. Tell yourself otherwise, but the only thing that will save it from being a major is a prolonged EWRC or a complete stall in the middle of the gulf. An EWRC could potentially worsen the situation by increasing the wind field, as well.

That's pretty irresponsible to say when all the scientific data is to the contrary right now. We don't know whether it might restrengthen to a major or stay the way it is. So no, it's not "pretty clear." btw, you can't get an EWRC when there's no solid eye to begin with. You can get an inner core collapse, but technically, that wouldn't be an EWRC.

[Sanibel]

Dry air shot:

[pablolopez26]

Interestingly the 12z GFS has this slowing down and bending towards the west before landfall - such that it actually goes west of Lafayette. I think that this point it's time to throw out the computers and nowcast based on satellite/radar/recon.

So instead of making a landfall directly upon New Orleans, its going to hit the Tx/La border? Is that what you think is going to happen?

Ive given up on trying to see where he is going. LOL

[Just Joshing You]

I don't know what the intensity will be, but it will be a Major Hurricane at landfall, that much is pretty clear. Tell yourself otherwise, but the only thing that will save it from being a major is a prolonged EWRC or a complete stall in the middle of the gulf. An EWRC could potentially worsen the situation by increasing the wind field, as well.

That's pretty irresponsible to say when all the scientific data is to the contrary right now. We don't know whether it might restrengthen to a major or stay the way it is. So no, it's not "pretty clear." btw, you can't get an EWRC when there's no solid eye to begin with. You can get an inner core collapse, but technically, that wouldn't be an EWRC.

Sorry to contradict you, but microwave imagery shows a possible outside eyewall as well as an inner eyewall.

[tallywx]

Interestingly the 12z GFS has this slowing down and bending towards the west before landfall - such that it actually goes west of Lafayette. I think that this point it's time to throw out the computers and nowcast based on satellite/radar/recon.

So instead of making a landfall directly upon New Orleans, its going to hit the Tx/La border? Is that what you think is going to happen?

Ive given up on trying to see where he is going. LOL

I have no idea personally, but I'd say the NHC track right now is as good a prediction as any. I'm not sure why some of the models have shifted west considering how if anything, the path has been consistently tracking east of the NHC track by a few miles.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dry air shot:

Where? I see no dry air in the storm.

[Tom8]

soon eye of the hurrican will be visible in the next houer .

[Portastorm]

Interestingly the 12z GFS has this slowing down and bending towards the west before landfall - such that it actually goes west of Lafayette. I think that this point it's time to throw out the computers and nowcast based on satellite/radar/recon.

So instead of making a landfall directly upon New Orleans, its going to hit the Tx/La border? Is that what you think is going to happen?

Ive given up on trying to see where he is going. LOL

I have no idea personally, but I'd say the NHC track right now is as good a prediction as any. I'm not sure why some of the models have shifted west considering how if anything, the path has been consistently tracking east of the NHC track by a few miles.

Because some of the modeling underestimated the strength of the Ohio Valley ridge. That is why the GFS runs are showing more of a western component.

[storms in NC]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/07L.GUSTAV/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

would nee dto closely look at recon info, but maybe a secondary eyewall also formed?

That is what WWL4 said a little while ago. This does happen to hurricanes that build up and that is stronger. How many times did Katrina change?

[HURAKAN]

My family just spoke to my relatives in Cuba and everyone is OK. They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage. I think Charley handled that in 2004. The Cuban government is saying that they expect electricity to be back between 25 to 30 days.

25-30 days... that must seem like a short period of time for them.. I feel so bad for them

I didnt know Cuba used Entergy too. haha.

or FPL.

During Charley they were without electricity for about a month. Furthermore, I fully expect that there was a lot of tree damage in Pinar del Río, which in English is "Pines of the River." Just the name tells you that there is a lot of trees. Most of the province is covered by national parks and touristic sites. It's not deforested as the western part of the island. Fidel Castro has a house and private area where he hunts or hunted in the westernmost part of the province.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, I agree with the NHC saying that the 120mph they are giving this storm may be generous.....Based on the Satellite pics, I think it's less for sure, probably somewhere in the Cat 2 range....What a difference a day makes....If they lower the intensity on the next advisory, you'll more than likely see the landfall intensity lowered as well....
I just didn't expect this. I expected to wake up and see a monster in the Gulf...