ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

I would think the best thing to do is prepare for a system like this is to prepare for a category above. So in this case prepare for a top end category-1 and if you do that you won't be taken by surprise.

By the way does anyone have any radar images for this system?

[Duddy]

will this strengthen to hurricane status?

000
WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

[stevetampa33614]

By the way does anyone have any radar images for this system?

Its out of the range of pensacola.

[HurricaneRobert]

Humberto did present better than this at a lower intensity, but I wouldn't discount Edouard because of the real estate it has available.

[Duddy]

Here is Wilma undergoing Extreme Intensification


That storm was so damn strong. 215mph gusts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OV9hFh64jE

Can we stop talking about Wilma? It's irrelevant, in my view.

Thanks!

geez i was just helping a guy find an image.

Yeah, we can't let the MAN hold us down dude!

Thanks for finding that.

That's the end of the Wilma chat.

[KWT]

Mecklenburg, its certainly a possibility that needs watching, I'd guess probably a reasonable chance right now, esp if it can stay over water for another 36-48hrs like forecasted.

As for Humberto, it didn't really look all that stunning IMO till it was a hurricane but then it did look pretty classic.

[MiamiensisWx]

The "mandatory evacuation orders" are nuts, dude. Pretty soon they're going to start evacuating people for severe thunderstorms.

Do you have a family?

No, and you have a point. But I'd say that having a wife and a couple of kids over the age of two wouldn't change my thinking. Having a baby probably would.

Personally, based on my experience and concerns, I can't see how anyone should willingly ignore a mandatory evacuation order, but to each his own.

I'm very wary in regards to safety issues like this one, though I believe inland areas like Bay City should not require evacuations in this case.

[Just Joshing You]

Hey does anyone think this has a chance of beating Wilma's 882 mbr reading? What about the chances of them creating a higher category rating for hurricanes after this makes landfall with 220 MP/H winds? Wilma never made landfall that strong!

Ok, there, Wilma discussion ended

[HURAKAN]

[hiflyer]

Galveston County Evac Brochure
http://www.texas-city-tx.org/BrochureEvac.pdf

[Honeyko]

Edouard is still a slightly-decoupled system. There's a surface whorl just to the north of the convection, but if you look at waning-light visibles, you can see the northwesterly inflow jet coming in underneath the blow-off canopy, and a spiral of over-shooting CB tops leading up to the northernmost one. This implies, to me, that there's an 850mb center inside that northern cluster (which the plane may have missed if it was wave-hopping). As the evening bears on toward the diurnal maxima, one of two things will happen: Either the LLC is sucked completely under the 850mb, or the 850mb begins to orbit the LLC. (The first scenario is worse, because it yields are farther south storm.)

[njweather]

Humberto did present better than this at a lower intensity, but I wouldn't discount Edouard because of the real estate it has available.

Edouard will have more time on water though.

[KWT]

Still looks lop sided to me Hurakan but I suppose with the inflow from land into the northern quadrants that was always likely.

I wouldn't be expecting a nice system unless this gets upto the 75-85kts range then we probably will finally see this looking much better, I think it will continue to look less impressive then the wind speeds would show for the next 24hrs, after that then I'd expect real improvement as the shear totally eases off for good.

[HURAKAN]

Two hours ago:

[Dionne]

will this strengthen to hurricane status?

You can get advisories directly to your email from NHC. Just go to the site and sign up. Advisories coming out every two hours now they say.

[wxmann_91]

Comparing this to Wilma is ludicrous. This looks to be strong TS/weak Cat 1 at landfall. Typical GOM storm.

[stevetampa33614]

Having a baby probably would.

Personally, based on my experience and concerns,[/quote][/quote]


Ya stupid idea, but then again when Charley was coming to Tampa and the State started ordering evacuations of Pinellas, Local mets on bay news 9 were telling people that the storm was going to headign further south and said to wait to be sure. Local mets saved alot of head aches.

Anyway. Im more worried about the rigs out there. What little domestic oil we are drilling is right in the path of edouard and strengthing would not be a good thing. Something like 4% of the worlds oil supply is in the Western GOM.

Praying to the Dry Air gods nothing close to a Cat 2.

[KWT]

Humberto did present better than this at a lower intensity, but I wouldn't discount Edouard because of the real estate it has available.

Edouard will have more time on water though.

Yep it may have nearly as much time over water as Alicia did, though this one is a little closer to the coast but its also further east then Alicia as well.

[Just Joshing You]

I'm pretty sure there's next to no chance of this being a TS at landfall, unfortunately.

[MiamiensisWx]

Comparing this to Wilma is ludicrous. This looks to be strong TS/weak Cat 1 at landfall. Typical GOM storm.

I completely agree with this post and the bolded section. I personally anticipate a solid TS at landfall that may approach 55-65 kt.