ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[KWT]

This is a really tough call to make with this system, most models do shunt this SW but to what extent who knows, isn't gaining latitude right now.

[gatorcane]

This is a really tough call to make with this system, most models do shunt this SW but to what extent who knows, isn't gaining latitude right now.

I think its gaining some lattitude -- in fact as it deepens over the next 1-2 days and feels the trough it may jog a bit more NW as the models had progged before making the west turn. I'm closely monitoring this possibility.

Remember its been a pretty shallow system so far and been able to more more WNW than NW but that may change gradually.

[KWT]

Sorry gatorcane I was just talking about the NHC points which shows its jogged a touch SW. I agree it really should pick up some latitude but how much is uncertain?

[jinftl]

Hanna is not gaining latitude very much...is there a possibility that she will never get to the forecast position near 25N before turning SW?

If she stayed further south, that would be a more direct path to the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas...meaning impact sooner than currently forecast.

[Vortex]

I dont see much gain in latitude presently as of the 1445utc. clearly wnw. The ukmet imo has the best track forecast based on current trends IMO.

[Blown Away]

Per NWS Melbourne:
TUE-FRI...FCST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF HANNA. ONE TREND NOTED ON THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUITE HOSTILE FROM LATE MONDAY ONWARD OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO SEA AREA ...WHERE HANNA IS FCST TO BE..AS A 40-50KT NNW-N JET IS FCST TO
DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ERN CONUS DLM RIDGE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN FWD SPEED ALONG WITH A TURN TWD THE SW...AND A REVERSAL OF THE INTENSIFICATION TREND...BY MON-TUE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF HANNA CLOSELY HERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL.

Will Hanna survive this??

[boca]

Whats the chances of Hanna missing Florida totally slamming Cuba and ending up in the NW Caribbean?

[KWT]

Who knows Boca, its not impossible...though such a track is ultra rare, I do recall seeing something that took a track SW from near the Bahamas into the Caribbean but can't remember what one or if it even exists!

[jinftl]

could she meander wsw or sw through the turks and caicos and se bahamas...and eventually a wnw track resumes toward the florida peninsula or the keys?

I have a feeling we will be watching this one on the edge of our seats for a while....

Whats the chances of Hanna missing Florida totally slamming Cuba and ending up in the NW Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

Whats the chances of Hanna missing Florida totally slamming Cuba and ending up in the NW Caribbean?

Boca there is a chance for sure. Another thing I am watching closely is if Hanna moves faster than models are progging, that the cone keeps shifting left and the SW bend happens more west...that is certainly a possibility.

[fci]

Whats the chances of Hanna missing Florida totally slamming Cuba and ending up in the NW Caribbean?

BINGO!!!!!

If you look at the models and their trend, that is exactly what one would extrapolate.

Slam Cuba or even Haiti (again, which would be horrific for those folks ) and pretty much follow Gustav's tracks.

Unless we see a trend otherwise (meaning less S or SW and more W or WNW) in the 3-5 day range; this scenario seems more likely.

For those of us in South Florida, the trend of Hanna NOT gaining latitude is a good thing. If she never even reaches 25N, Florida is more in the clear including The Keys.

[jinftl]

would a more westerly or wnw track in the next few days...thereby putting hanna south of where she is forecast by a few degrees latitude (say around 23N)...encounter the same conditions that would result in such a sharp sw turn as she would if she were further north (say around 25N)? Or would this result in a less sharp bend to the wsw?

[jinftl]

I don't know if I would go so far as to say Florida would be in the clear if she doesn't reach 25N ...we are only seeing the forecast 120 hours out....what if a nw turn takes place beyond that....moving hanna right back towards florida?

Whats the chances of Hanna missing Florida totally slamming Cuba and ending up in the NW Caribbean?

BINGO!!!!!

If you look at the models and their trend, that is exactly what one would extrapolate.

Slam Cuba or even Haiti (again, which would be horrific for those folks ) and pretty much follow Gustav's tracks.

Unless we see a trend otherwise (meaning less S or SW and more W or WNW) in the 3-5 day range; this scenario seems more likely.

For those of us in South Florida, the trend of Hanna NOT gaining latitude is a good thing. If she never even reaches 25N, Florida is more in the clear including The Keys.

[KWT]

Its really mad to think this will possibly be a threat to Cuba...BUT the ECM has been suggesting that could happen and go right through the Keys.

fci, I think thats WAY too early to make that call.

My advice is watch for what Gustav's path does, becuase the steering currents will bery similar and would suggest that after the SW dive it will slowly blanace out and lift towards the WNW it seems.

ECM seems to have done a very good job with this one, spotted this set-up way before the other models.

[Bocadude85]

Ok well I just checked the records and from where Hanna is there has never been a storm to dive SW and hit Cuba or Haiti.. not saying it cant happen just that it has never occured from where her currect posistion is or where she is forecast to be. But in 1942 there was a storm that started in the Carribean went NW into the Bahamas and then dove back SW into Cuba

[Trader Ron]

Yesterday Florida was in the crosshairs. Today the track is South of Florida. Tomorrow who knows.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has stalled Hanna just east of the Northern Bahamas at 84 hours....

I don't see a SW turn yet.

[gtsmith]

the whole reason she would be moving S or SW is due to the blocking high to the north...a NW turn would therefore be unlikely due to that very same ridge

I don't know if I would go so far as to say Florida would be in the clear if she doesn't reach 25N ...we are only seeing the forecast 120 hours out....what if a nw turn takes place beyond that....moving hanna right back towards florida?

Whats the chances of Hanna missing Florida totally slamming Cuba and ending up in the NW Caribbean?

BINGO!!!!!

If you look at the models and their trend, that is exactly what one would extrapolate.

Slam Cuba or even Haiti (again, which would be horrific for those folks ) and pretty much follow Gustav's tracks.

Unless we see a trend otherwise (meaning less S or SW and more W or WNW) in the 3-5 day range; this scenario seems more likely.

For those of us in South Florida, the trend of Hanna NOT gaining latitude is a good thing. If she never even reaches 25N, Florida is more in the clear including The Keys.

[cpdaman]

with the ULL finally at approx. the same latitude as hanna = 21.5 give or take a .3 or so......... i would not be surprised to see her motion turn more NW soon.

i agree g smith bend back NW would seem very very unlikely late in the period, i also think a bend into cuba is pushing it as well. i'm thinking either keys to gom or S. fl

[gatorcane]

GFS 12Z at 96 hours turns Hanna SSW now approaching Central/SE Bahamas.