ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

Just able to sign on. See a big swing towards Houston and 940.

GFDL hits a home run as far as models. Now its time to switch from model accuracy to keeping people safe.

[smw1981]

I'm sorry for my ignorance but can someone give me a brief synopsis of Rita so that I can know what is going on with all of these comparisons to her? (I understand the track is similar, but apparently her track kept shifting - according to posters on here - etc.)

[Aristotle]

pressure down to 940.5

Where are you getting this info jdjaguar?

BTW is that extrap?

Thanks

[soonertwister]

Somebody please explain to me the utility of posting projected tracks of former storms or outdated tracks of the current storm on this thread?

What is wrong with you people?

[Ed Mahmoud]

With -80ºC cloud tops, almost looks like a West Pacific storm...

[Jagno]

I'm sorry for my ignorance but can someone give me a brief synopsis of Rita so that I can know what is going on with all of these comparisons to her? (I understand the track is similar, but apparently her track kept shifting - according to posters on here - etc.)

The track similarities and the shifting from south texas all the way up the texas coast to make landfall at the Tx/LA border is exactly why they keep making the comparisons. I hope this helps you.

[HarlequinBoy]

80 to a hundred sustained aint nothing to mess with...hattiesburg mississippi recieved about that in katrina eastern eyewall 70 mils inland and the poor town looked like it had been hit with a tornado. My brother was without power for 10 days. Heck in Mobile I was without power 7 in katrina and it had gotten maybe a few Hurricane force Gusts.

I think I heard that Hattiesburg lost somewhere around half of their pine trees during Katrina. (If there are trees around the house, they could be IN the house by Sunday.) Both water and electricity were out for days. (I have no idea why the water was out, but I know it was..) There is no way I would "take this lightly" at this point, with Ike getting so close...

A sobering fact to remember about inland wind potential is that 24 people died around Hattiesburg during Katrina.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Somebody please explain to me the utility of posting projected tracks of former storms or outdated tracks of the current storm on this thread?

What is wrong with you people?

I'm expressing why I think what I think.....everybody knows that these are two different systems....one is in 2005 and one is in 2008. It's pretty easy to understand.

[jdjaguar]

pressure down to 940.5

Where are you getting this info jdjaguar?

BTW is that extrap?

Thanks

extrap is 944

940.5 lowest reading from recon that i saw.

[dwg71]

I'm sorry for my ignorance but can someone give me a brief synopsis of Rita so that I can know what is going on with all of these comparisons to her? (I understand the track is similar, but apparently her track kept shifting - according to posters on here - etc.)

i think it was pretty much the same, shortwave coming down and hp ridge eroding, timing. Rita was already further west and moving west, not nw at the time. She made it all the way to LA, Ike could too

[green eyed girl]

Hmmmm...further north and east now huh? Who ever would have thought that?

Touche!

[Sean in New Orleans]

With -80ºC cloud tops, almost looks like a West Pacific storm...

Very interesting shot.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1045 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1045 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...HURRICANE IKE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

HURRICANE IKE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 OR
MORE INCHES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

...WIND IMPACTS...

ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AS A RESULT OF
IKE. THE REGION THAT IS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH RISE BUILDINGS MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS AT ROOFTOP LEVEL.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES AND TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE OUTDOOR MATERIALS AND PROPERTY THAT ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 INCHES IS LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY NATURE OF THE RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AND RAPID RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS.

...TORNADO THREAT...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF IKE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY LOCATIONS
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON...TO CORSICANA...TO PARIS WILL BE
IN THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SUMMARY....

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM IKE WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST CHANCES FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES TYPICALLY OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF THE STORM. MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THESE IMPACTS WILL BE
PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

MONITOR FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT
WORTH AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OUR INTERNET HOMEPAGE...AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

[CronkPSU]

recon has been out of there for over 90 minutes now so not sure what the current pressure is, air force is in the air now to start their mission

[jdjaguar]

pressure drop supporting CAT 4 intensification in progress.

godspeed Texas/La

[Aristotle]

pressure down to 940.5

Where are you getting this info jdjaguar?

BTW is that extrap?

Thanks

extrap is 944

940.5 lowest reading from recon that i saw.

Whats the site? if you can sir?

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, is this your estimate in variance from NHC? Because from what I can see, it's not worth the risk to even guess how high the winds might be.

the sustained cane force would be if our track/intensity verifies perfectly. If there is a slight deviation, then we're talking about gusts

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm sorry for my ignorance but can someone give me a brief synopsis of Rita so that I can know what is going on with all of these comparisons to her? (I understand the track is similar, but apparently her track kept shifting - according to posters on here - etc.)

i think it was pretty much the same, shortwave coming down and hp ridge eroding, timing. Rita was already further west and moving west, not nw at the time. She made it all the way to LA, Ike could too

That is why I wouldn't let my guard down in or near the parts of Louisiana under a hurricane watch.

[TexHorn06]

Yesterday at this time, what was left of the eye was supposed to pass right over Austin, TX (where I live). Way this is going I am not sure we'll see much of anything, is that about correct? I know very, very little about tracking hurricanes/patterns/influences other than what I read on here.

[cycloneye]

I edited the title to add West Louisiana as its in the cone of probabilitie.Any information from Western Louisiana about evacuations,school closings,local statements and observations of winds and sea in the coast can be posted here.