ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[vaffie]

Latest GFDL, GFS, and UKMET models have shifted landfall westward.

link?

model runs thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102615&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2260

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep...NHC didnt move track much..maybe a tad west. With 30 hrs now...Landfall near 7am

[KWT]

njweather, the modles suggest the shear eases off which allow for some strengthening.

Given the speed its now moving at the heat content won't make much of a difference to a cat-2/3 and the SST's are high enough for some strengthening right upto near the coast.

[funster]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

[LSU2001]

I keep thinking back to Katrina three years ago. She came in as a Cat 3 but her surge was more like a Cat 5 if I remember correctly. Gustav should not be taken lightly. Gustav could remain a Cat 3 or even drop down to a Cat 2. The bottom line: Gustav will still cause damage wherever he makes landfall.

Kristi

Katrina's surge was at heights seen with cat 5 storms, and yes, she was a 3 at landfall in Mississippi.

Thats a fact dh but what people have to remember is that NOLA was on the east side. MGC got the worst of that surge but NOLA got most of the coverage due to severe flooding/rescues/looting. This makes the best headlines.

Gus is heading on a track that would put the worst of the surge on the westbank and right over my house in Lower Lafourche parish. I still think NOLA will see signifigant flooding, particularly if the east side levees don't hold again. I see a Cat 2-3 surge as plenty devastating for South La.
JMHO,
tim

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[soonertwister]

Turns out what I saw WAS indication of the relocation of the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 311750.txt

[Hyperstorm]

what we have now is a legitimate 95-100KT cat 3 hurricane. This is very similar to Rita when it made landfall

I wouldn't quite compare this one to Rita. Yes, the official winds are similar when landfall, but remember that Rita had a much lower pressure at landfall, had been a strong Category 5 hurricane while in the Gulf, and the hurricane wind field was more than a third bigger than this one.

I think the NHC is finally catching up to the intensity of this system since overnight last night. I still think they are a little high with the winds and are probably closer to 105 mph at this time.

[Just Joshing You]

SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

Quick question: what is the NHC seeing that would indicate re-intensification during the next 12-24 hours?

Just because it isn't over the loop current doesn't mean the water is too cold to sustain or strengthen. It is just too cold to sustain a cat 5, which needs more energy than a cat 4 and a 3.

[Dean4Storms]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

[KWT]

Well Gus will be a good test to see if the Leeves have had a good job done on them, hopefully they will hold.

I think this may end up taking a wobble NNW/N just before landfall, just simply based on many previous hurricanes in recent years doing similar things...but then again this set-up does look different from most of those however.

[HouTXmetro]

Turns out what I saw WAS indication of the relocation of the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 311750.txt

Huh, I don't understand? How can a cat 3 strorm eye relocate? I thought that only happened in weak storms. Where did it relocate to?

[southerngale]

Yep...NHC didnt move track much..maybe a tad west. With 30 hrs now...Landfall near 7am

They don't adjust the track at intermediate advisories.

[gboudx]

What's the estimated landfall timeframe? At the 11pm advisory last night, the NHC had Gus off the northern Cuban coast. Looks like he's about halfway to landfall.

[SoupBone]

Yep...NHC didnt move track much..maybe a tad west. With 30 hrs now...Landfall near 7am

They don't adjust the track at intermediate advisories.

The next track update would be at 4pm CDT correct?

[soonertwister]

Turns out what I saw WAS indication of the relocation of the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 311750.txt

Huh, I don't understand? How can a cat 3 strorm eye relocate? I thought that only happened in weak storms. Where did it relocate to?

It relocated just a little to the west, and the old ragged irregular eye was shed and left to the north.

Circular now at 15 nm, open on the east, but I think it will close really soon.

[southerngale]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

They explained it in the 11am discussion.

THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.

[Nexus]

Lastest VDM is 960 - they've been 959-962 for 12+ hours now.

Wouldn't this be a "trend" to show that he is neither strengthening or weakening but mainly holding steady? I know things can and do change but as the current info is he's just holding his own but trying to dig down and strengthen.

Yes I'd say it's a trend of steady state. He's obviously fighting the 20 kt shear quite diligently to maintain this. Problem is, the shear is easing up, so I'm worried about a period of intensification, like the NHC says:

[HURAKAN]

Impressive critter!

[southerngale]

Yep...NHC didnt move track much..maybe a tad west. With 30 hrs now...Landfall near 7am

They don't adjust the track at intermediate advisories.

The next track update would be at 4pm CDT correct?

Correct.

[Wx_Warrior]

yep 4pm 7 (intermediate) and 10