ATL: IKE Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like a little bit of westward movement to me on the latest sat loops.

One thing I think I'm seeing from sat presentation is that this storm may really be rocking and rolling by morning. Jeff Masters said something about a Cat 3 by morning and I'd say that may very well happen.

Pressure has fallen like a rock and now deep reds are wrapping around center again. Plus, looks like excellent outflow developing in most directions.

[smw1981]

I'm sorry for my ignorance but can someone give me a brief synopsis of Rita so that I can know what is going on with all of these comparisons to her? (I understand the track is similar, but apparently her track kept shifting - according to posters on here - etc.)

The track similarities and the shifting from south texas all the way up the texas coast to make landfall at the Tx/LA border is exactly why they keep making the comparisons. I hope this helps you.

Yes, thank you very much jagno and dwg!

[Weatherfreak000]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

It's my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit Cameron Parish, LA, at this point. We'll see. I'm watching the same thing as everyone else and I'm forming thoughts just like the rest.

Please be raedy to eat some NHC crow on Saturday if that's not the case.

We know where you want the storm to go. Quit pestering everyone please. Nobody is discounting the NHC track.

[Sean in New Orleans]

In any case, didn't mean to cause controversy...it does appear that Ike is finally getting its act together tonight. It looks quite impressive late this evening, IMO.

[Senobia]

Beaumont area, as of 1130pm, has basically maintained a "You're on your own" attitude. They're are voluntary evacs scattered about the area, but the announcement has been made that there are no state resources (211 special needs buses etc) available at present or in the foreseeable future to get people out because they have all been deployed to points south of us.

Further, the school districts still have ball games scheduled for tomorrow and Friday.

From KFDM news:

Should you decide to leave the area voluntarily, please travel in a northerly direction as you will almost certainly encounter significant traffic congestion should you attempt to travel west on I-10. The evacuation routes from Hardin and Jefferson County are Hwy 69 and 96 North. The evacuation routes from Orange County are Hwy 105 North, Hwy 87 North, Hwy 62 North. There are currently no State resources available for transport of individuals without their own transportation as those resources have been deployed to other areas of the State.

Edited to add this, also from KFDM News:

The National Weather Service advises that we can anticipate tropical storm force winds beginning during the day Friday and Category one or two hurricane force winds on Saturday. We urge all citizens to be properly prepared and provisioned for potential power outages and loss of services

[jdjaguar]

[/quote]

Where are you getting this info jdjaguar?

BTW is that extrap?

Thanks[/quote]
extrap is 944

940.5 lowest reading from recon that i saw.[/quote]


Whats the site? if you can sir?[/quote]
recon data is posted on this site...go back to the menu and click on the live thread "IKE Recon data/and or discussion/

IKE is deepening..where is Crowley?

[smw1981]

Does anyone know why TWC's cone is smaller than the NHC cone? Their cone stops at the TX/LA border...

[HarlequinBoy]

Yesterday at this time, what was left of the eye was supposed to pass right over Austin, TX (where I live). Way this is going I am not sure we'll see much of anything, is that about correct? I know very, very little about tracking hurricanes/patterns/influences other than what I read on here.

Ike is a very large storm so I'm sure you'll see some effects. The way it looks to me right now you'll probably be on the west side of Ike and a good distance from the eye/the remaining eye. I'd expect some gusty winds and heavy downpours. Maybe similar to what Lake Charles got during Gustav.


This is just my opinion, and not an official forecast.

[Weatherfreak000]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.gif

Good WV Loop of Ike right now.

[Aristotle]

:eek:

Where are you getting this info jdjaguar?

BTW is that extrap?

Thanks[/quote]
extrap is 944

940.5 lowest reading from recon that i saw.[/quote]


Whats the site? if you can sir?[/quote]
recon data is posted on this site...go back to the menu and click on the live thread "IKE Recon data/and or discussion/

IKE is deepening..where is Crowley?[/quote]

Near Dallas brother...No worries here. Just following the storm and watching the pressure dive!

[Texas Snowman]

Not to be rude, but for the life of me, I can't understand anyone "wanting" a hurricane like Ike to go anywhere, Texas, Louisiana, or otherwise.

If the intensity and track forecasts verify, in my totally unofficial opinion, there could be plenty of casualties if people can't or won't evacuate. The damage is likely to be well into in the billions of dollars. Weeks of misery without electricity or water. Months to rebuild and repair damage.

If someone "wants" this hurricane, by all means, sign up for it.

Because I can guarantee you tonight that nobody in their right mind in Texas wants a Carla-esque storm roaring into Houston/Galveston. Or for that matter, an Alicia-esque storm. Heck, any storm.

Now back to regular programming...

[ELF62]

Can someone tell us what is happening with the High over the Eastern US. I'm not versed enough to read the trends. Thanks in advance.

[Aristotle]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.gif

Good WV Loop of Ike right now.

Wow this think is really blowing up!

[artist]

pressure down to 940.5

Where are you getting this info jdjaguar?

BTW is that extrap?

Thanks

extrap is 944

940.5 lowest reading from recon that i saw.

right here in this forum - here is the latest page of the recon thread -

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103035&start=780


Whats the site? if you can sir?[/quote]

[Duddy]

http://www.co.matagorda.tx.us/ips/expor ... /MCNA4.PDF

"This is a ferocious storm that has Matagorda County in it's sights. Therefore, I strongly recommend everyone evacuate to the North."

Nate McDonald - Matagorda County Judge

[Stormcenter]

Looks like a little bit of westward movement to me on the latest sat loops.

One thing I think I'm seeing from sat presentation is that this storm may really be rocking and rolling by morning. Jeff Masters said something about a Cat 3 by morning and I'd say that may very well happen.

Pressure has fallen like a rock and now deep reds are wrapping around center again. Plus, looks like excellent outflow developing in most directions.

Yes I agree there is some serious deep convection starting to wrap around.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Looks like a little bit of westward movement to me on the latest sat loops.

One thing I think I'm seeing from sat presentation is that this storm may really be rocking and rolling by morning. Jeff Masters said something about a Cat 3 by morning and I'd say that may very well happen.

Pressure has fallen like a rock and now deep reds are wrapping around center again. Plus, looks like excellent outflow developing in most directions.

Yes I agree there is some serious deep convection starting to wrap around.

It is really looking impressive tonight. Best of its life. Looking like a classic GOM hurricane whirling around.

[Weatherfreak000]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI4_wv_loop.gif

Good WV Loop of Ike right now.

Wow this think is really blowing up!

True enough..it's also showing the motion pretty well.

NW. A WNWbyNW jog occured earlier but it was corrected.

[Sean in New Orleans]

But, still no eye......

[PTrackerLA]

What time does the eclipse end? I'll stay up for the new GFDL/HWRF but may not make the eclipse .