ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

I heard news a while ago that Gustav had taken his first US fatality. Apparently a sailboat fisherman in the Keys was headed into port but was swept off his boat by a wave and drowned at sea.

Sad news for somebody's family.

[funster]

Gustav's CDO has condensed but the eye is still hiding in there somewhere.

[Ptarmigan]

Many computer models have Gustav making landfall on Louisiana and turning west towards Texas. This could be a flood event for Texas and that has me actually more concerned.

[soonertwister]

A ship 150 nm due North of Gustav reported 60 kt sustained winds and 46 foot waves a little over a half hour ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

[KWT]

Yep Funster, an impressive wedge of deep convection. The eye which is pretty shallow now in terms of vertical depth, still we shall have to see what happens I suppose.

[Dean4Storms]

It's not a relocation, the UL visible of the eye is sheared toward the NE and also the Sat Pic looks at the storm from a South to North perspective. This storm is tilted and that is why the storm is struggling to re-strengthen.

I don't think so, look at the position fix, then look at this snapshot I saw right around the time recon took the fix. It's located under the intense ball of convection that's been dominating on the west and south for hours.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg

I don't know how to make it any simpler. The LLC is to the west of that UL roundish void you see to the east right on track of the NHC track. The LLC is obscured by the convection on its western periphery due to the SW shear.

[KWT]

A ship 150 nm due North of Gustav reported 60 kt sustained winds and 46 foot waves a little over a half hour ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Hardly surprising, its got a very large region of TS force winds, though thats not far off hurricane force winds for that matter!

[SoupBone]

A ship 150 nm due North of Gustav reported 60 kt sustained winds and 46 foot waves a little over a half hour ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Ummmm....46 foot waves? WOW! Were any waves like this recorded for Katrina. This seems very high.

[invest man]

Gustav's CDO has condensed but the eye is still hiding in there somewhere.

what would happen if the center got wrapped around by all the deep red on that sat pic? would this not be a sign of intensification because I noticed from the last vdm that the pressure was down a couple of mb?

[ColdFusion]

Just doesnt look like your typical Cat 3 cyclone....

[KWT]

Well its got a sheared look, the system still bursting convection very often however coldfusion and the eye is still pretty obvious even if it doesn't look classic like it did before.

[cpdaman]

upper divergence appears very impressive, yet again (after a 12 hour waning) (over 40 in a small area) again

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[Buck]

A ship 150 nm due North of Gustav reported 60 kt sustained winds and 46 foot waves a little over a half hour ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Ummmm....46 foot waves? WOW! Were any waves like this recorded for Katrina. This seems very high.

I believe Ivan had near 100 foot wave heights... no surprise since it made it from the Caribbean to GOM without land interaction.

[Ptarmigan]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

It is almost big as Katrina.

[mvtrucking]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

The storm seems right on the NHC track pts. It looks like they nailed this storm out 7 days. Unbelievable.

Those aren't the same forecast track points they had for 7 days. They have been shifting the track points further east. So now it looks more on track.

Oh I know that Thunder44, what I should have said is they have had La as the landfall point for many days.(Even though it was in the cone and they continued to say, that track errors up to several hungred miles do occur that far out, and the exact location of landfall was impossible to tell. Of course it has flipped flopped east & west for days but basically stayed in La)

[soonertwister]

It's not a relocation, the UL visible of the eye is sheared toward the NE and also the Sat Pic looks at the storm from a South to North perspective. This storm is tilted and that is why the storm is struggling to re-strengthen.

I don't think so, look at the position fix, then look at this snapshot I saw right around the time recon took the fix. It's located under the intense ball of convection that's been dominating on the west and south for hours.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg

I don't know how to make it any simpler. The LLC is to the west of that UL roundish void you see to the east right on track of the NHC track. The LLC is obscured by the convection on its western periphery due to the SW shear.

I spotted it not because I could see the eye, but the circulation around it.

Latest fix: 25.9N 86.6W
Previous: 25.3N 86.0W

[KWT]

cpdaman, not really surprising given the how impressive the convection is for a sheared hurricane, thats whats probably keeping this a cat-3 IMO right now.

[Buck]

Look at that. Pretty monumental historical track image that includes the three most lengendary US storms... Camille, Andrew & Katrina.

[shah8]

Hurricane Ivan has had recorded waves of 53ft. Hurricane Katrina had 55ft. There are accounts of both hurricanes generating rogue waves that reach 90-100ft.

[Sanibel]

I think this may end up taking a wobble NNW/N just before landfall, just simply based on many previous hurricanes in recent years doing similar things...but then again this set-up does look different from most of those however.

Probably not this time KWT. I put the straight edge to the present position with Juventude as a reference and it finally came up west of N.O. meaning the High is starting to take Gus slightly left as NHC predicted. The trop points are so close to actual track that you can consider NHC track accurate at this point.

That guy Tim in Cut Off, Louisiana made the right move in evacuating because this will probably go right over his house. Maybe a touch left of Grande Isle with Terebonne Bay as the landfall.

Note: Katrina did not open its eye until higher intensity.

We had near TS squalls from rain in a band bringing winds down to the surface here.

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