ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Weather Watcher]

CNN met just made a good comment IMO that with a storm moving at the speed gustav is it will not just "explode" as it hit's the loop current, because sometimes there can be a bit (assuming 2 or so hours) of a lag effect

so i would look to see over the next two hours if this lag effect kicks in (and not write off intensification in any way, shape, or form just yet) , since she is on the very nothern extreme of the loop current now and leaving it in the next hour or two

look at the latest ramdis loop.....slow it down......and watch frames encompassing times from 1845 thru 1910 looks like a "modest blowup" of convection on NE side of eye, with better structure to boot, he may be ready to silence the nay sayers....this IMO is his last chance to return to being a cat 4 .....watch this ramdis loop carefully

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Yes you've got it there. It definately is starting to deepen

[Buck]

Southeast Pass, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
31 August 2008 - 1 September 2008
29.1167° N, 89.0450° W

2008-08-31 06:33 CDT Sunrise
2008-08-31 07:18 CDT Moonrise
2008-08-31 10:23 CDT 1.19 feet High Tide
2008-08-31 18:44 CDT 0.75 feet Low Tide
2008-08-31 19:18 CDT Sunset
2008-08-31 19:45 CDT Moonset
2008-08-31 22:49 CDT 0.79 feet High Tide
2008-09-01 03:54 CDT 0.71 feet Low Tide
2008-09-01 06:34 CDT Sunrise
2008-09-01 08:17 CDT Moonrise
2008-09-01 12:08 CDT 0.98 feet High Tide
2008-09-01 16:54 CDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
2008-09-01 19:17 CDT Sunset
2008-09-01 20:15 CDT Moonset
2008-09-01 22:29 CDT 1.00 feet High Tide

[Derek Ortt]

of course it looks better now

it is a legitimate 3 now, or very close to it. This morning, it was a TINO

[dhweather]

The center does appear to be getting better organized, but time is running out, 17MPH is superfast for a hurricane

[Weather Watcher]

YIPES!!!

[RainWind]

What is "TINO"? Thanks! RW

[HURAKAN]

The center does appear to be getting better organized, but time is running out, 17MPH is superfast for a hurricane

Remember how fast Wilma was moving when it was approaching Florida. Shear was also high.

[tolakram]

Nice loop that is clearly showing organization.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[BigA]

it is a legitimate 3 now, or very close to it. This morning, it was a TINO

What is a TINO? Three in name only?

In any event, the NHC seems to often be extraordinarily reluctant to say that weakening big hurricanes in the North GOM are below 115 mph; perhaps this is because of the fear of complaceny if people hear that the storm is no longer a major hurricane.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like Gustav is waking up on visible for the first time since Cuba.

Looks like he has had enough of the dry air and is spitting it out.

[bostonseminole]

of course it looks better now

it is a legitimate 3 now, or very close to it. This morning, it was a TINO

Tino?

[ConvergenceZone]

If it's reorganizing, where is the eye in the below image, and that is the latest image. I don't see where it looks better to me......From looking at the previous images, the eye has always shows up on the visibles, but it's still not showing up on the AVN image below and the storm looks lopsided to me.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[CourierPR]

This storm is looking worse and worse by the hour...The shear and dry air appear to be winning the war......Regardless of how low the winds may end up being upon landfall, this is still going to bring A LOT of rain, and probably flodding rains since it won't be moving that fast once it hits land.

What are you looking at? It is getting better organized!

[attallaman]

I've been away from the computer for several hours, just came back and started reading through pages in this thread, comments like the storm was weakening, now it seems to be getting better organized. The track has shifted to the west, am I still under the gun from Gustav here in Biloxi or is it now becoming more of a serious threat to areas located to my west?

[BigB0882]

What has recent movement been? Still NW or is it now WNW?

[tolakram]

If it's reorganizing, where is the eye in the below image, and that is the latest image. I don't see where it looks better to me......From looking at the previous images, the eye has always shows up on the visibles, but it's still not showing up on the AVN image below and the storm looks lopsided to me.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Those are older images, those loops update at a slower rate and sometimes the java loops don't refresh correctly. Besides, why use IR when we have visual.

[Brent]

Here's a great idea!

Put Barack Obama on the east bank and John McCain on the west bank, there would be so much hot air, it would evaporate Gus.

LOL!

I really think the storm will come in near the current intensity, I don't see it bombing or conversely falling apart. Maybe some slight change one way or the other.

[vaffie]

For those interested, I used the latest recon data to work out it's current trajectory (for the past 98 minutes):

I used 25'51''N, 86'33''W to 26'2''N, 86'54'' and used the FCC website to account for differences in heading dependent upon latitude to get a precise value of:

300.3 degrees at 21.9 knots.

Note that the heading for the previous six hours was an average of 315 degrees at 15 knots.

So it has sped up a little and for the past 1.5 hours has been heading on a more westerly track than prior.

[debbiet]

Awhile back discussion was about wave heights during Katrina. My husband was on VA-TF2 the FEMA US&R team stationed in Waveland, MS for a week following Katrina. His team tells of the most amazing sight and one that caused everyone to stop and ponder just how high the waves had to have been at landfall...dead fish on the 3rd floor of a home gutted/destroyed by storm surge.