ATL: IKE Discussion

[Aristotle]

If this thing's winds have not strengthened I will officially throw out all I know about hurricanes and just give up predicting anything based on that IR loop.

Only at 83Kts on last recon pass but that was nw quad Ne quad coming in soon

[Melly]

If this thing's winds have not strengthened I will officially throw out all I know about hurricanes and just give up predicting anything based on that IR loop.

Ahh no ya shouldn't, not sure if you believe in God, but he does have a say in it. and I'm not bringing "Religion" in this I am bringing God in this.

[Aristotle]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/ir/geo/1km/full/Latest.html

NRL updating during eclipse via GOES-11

Wow there is some yeller in there. OUCH!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Also for those of you who think it might not have strengthened. Recon is in the Northwest quad which should be the weakest quad so wait until they sample the rest of the storm before figuring out if it has strengthened or not!

[Wthrman13]

As long as the double eye-wall structure remains, the winds won't increase that quickly. If the inner eyewall dissipates and/or mixes out to the outer eyewall (ala Wilma), then it would have a chance to really ramp up the winds as the outer eyewall contracts. This will be fascinating to watch over the next day to see what happens. In the case that the double eyewall structure remains intact, winds won't be extreme, but will be spread out over a larger area. Conversely, if the hurricane transitions to a more compact single-eyewall structure, winds will be stronger but over a smaller area. Either scenario is bad for the Texas coast, but the best case scenario in my opinion would be for the structure and strength of the hurricane to remain about what it is now.

[baitism]

Derek, what are you thoughts on the double wind maxima? Do you think the inner eyewall will eventually erode before landfall? And was this caused by Ike hitting Cuba while undergoing a EWRC?

[Aristotle]

the guys doing the recon posts are falling asleep and are asking for help... I don't know how anyone else?

[Nexus]

Ok looks like they have now encountered the double wind maxima. And it looks like the inner wind maxima is still the strongest.

The area of lower winds is that strange "handle" Ike has right now in the NW Quad, looking at the sat pics.

[RL3AO]

Center looks to be right on forecast. Only 2 or 3 miles east of the forecast line.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ok looks like they have now encountered the double wind maxima. And it looks like the inner wind maxima is still the strongest.

The area of lower winds is that strange "handle" Ike has right now in the NW Quad, looking at the sat pics.

That may be so but looking at microwave data there is a weak disorganized outer eye-wall structure. However it does look like the inner eye-wall is weakening and the outer one is taking over.

85GHz weak


85GHz H

[Aristotle]

can someone help me make sense of this?

UZNT13 KNHC 110553
XXAA 61067 99250 70872 08157 99950 27000 34574 00955 ///// /////
92240 26000 02061 85987 23200 02556 70674 16409 05052 88999 77999
31313 09608 80539
61616 AF308 2309A IKE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2499N08727W 0543 MBL WND 01562 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 02555 949705 WL150 36071 083 =
XXBB 61068 99250 70872 08157 00950 27000 11850 23200 22735 18203
33703 18210 44695 13808
21212 00950 34574 11940 00572 22928 01566 33923 02059 44915 02060
55908 02054 66850 02556 77695 05050
31313 09608 80539
61616 AF308 2309A IKE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2499N08727W 0543 MBL WND 01562 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 02555 949705 WL150 36071 083 =

[CronkPSU]

2 AM advisory up

946mb
100 mph

WNW at 9 mph

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not currently impressived with the outter eye wall on IR...In it seem sit has not strenthen on recon to. So it will take at least another 12+ hours before it takes over. We will see...

Also pressure is up from 940.5 earlier to 946 milibars...So it is doing the opposite. Could be a sign the inner eye wall is weaking, but the outter eye wall is not up to taken over yet.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 05:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 5:41:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°58'N 87°11'W (24.9667N 87.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 340 miles (548 km) to the W (275°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,657m (8,717ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 82kts (From the NE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 5:39:30Z

[Stormcenter]

2 AM advisory up

946mb
100 mph

WNW at 9 mph

The "good" news (if there such a thing right now) is he is picking
up forward speed (less time over water) now moving at 9mph.

[RL3AO]

can someone help me make sense of this?

UZNT13 KNHC 110553
XXAA 61067 99250 70872 08157 99950 27000 34574 00955 ///// /////
92240 26000 02061 85987 23200 02556 70674 16409 05052 88999 77999
31313 09608 80539
61616 AF308 2309A IKE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2499N08727W 0543 MBL WND 01562 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 02555 949705 WL150 36071 083 =
XXBB 61068 99250 70872 08157 00950 27000 11850 23200 22735 18203
33703 18210 44695 13808
21212 00950 34574 11940 00572 22928 01566 33923 02059 44915 02060
55908 02054 66850 02556 77695 05050
31313 09608 80539
61616 AF308 2309A IKE OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2499N08727W 0543 MBL WND 01562 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 02555 949705 WL150 36071 083 =

Thats a dropsonde which are more complicated to decode.

Basically the underlined parts are the important ones.

That says the drop was in the NW eyewall (315 is the direction which is northwest)

Then for surface winds/pressure, look for the 21212. Thats the wind level identifier. 00950 is the surface pressure (950 millibars). 34574 is the wind direction and speed at the surface. 345 is the wind direction (north-northwest) and 74 is the wind speed at the surface in knots.

Or for the thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97379


Or for the site that decodes it for you:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/UZNT13/KNHC/

[artinla1]

I hope everyone in Louisiana is getting ready.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

That was 946 millibars in the northwest quad. The 940 earlier was not from the same quadrant.

The pressure shouldn't be different in each quad. Its all one center which is where they get the pressure from.

[Melly]

That was 946 millibars in the northwest quad. The 940 earlier was not from the same quadrant.

So, erm what does that mean? Again I'm a Noob at all this...

[superfly]

B. 24 deg 58 min N 087 deg 11 min W

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°49'N 86°32'W

Movement between the last 2 fixes has been 283, just north of due west.