ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

gator , you notice the ULL stopped moving west and there is some dry air starting to wrap into the SE side...........with hanna headed that way it will be interesting to see what type of convection she has by this evening

[cycloneye]

Gatorcane,this is not the models thread.

[fci]

Yesterday Florida was in the crosshairs. Today the track is South of Florida. Tomorrow who knows.

Ah, but we like the trend!!

Its really mad to think this will possibly be a threat to Cuba...BUT the ECM has been suggesting that could happen and go right through the Keys.

fci, I think thats WAY too early to make that call.

My advice is watch for what Gustav's path does, becuase the steering currents will bery similar and would suggest that after the SW dive it will slowly blanace out and lift towards the WNW it seems.

ECM seems to have done a very good job with this one, spotted this set-up way before the other models.

KWT:
I am certainly NOT making the call that South Florida is in the clear.
I am just stating that IF she does not gain much latitude and the S or SW movement takes place, we would be saved.
Not making that prediction just yet since it seems that the situation is very fluid.
Hey, the anticipated 45-50 mph shear may make it all a moot point anyway!

(I edited this after realizing the error that is corrected in bold) OOPS (must have been my shock over McCain's VP nominee that clouded my thinking)

[Blown Away]

I think we will see the models over time get a better handle on the trough/ridge and we will see Hanna move WNW to NW and then respond to a building ridge and bend back W to WSW towards SFL anywhere from Vero Beach to the FL straits. The bend will not be as drastic as the models show. I feel it's very unlikely Hanna makes it from around 24N back down to Cuba, show me a storm that has ever done that in late Aug early Sept. 1947 Storm or Betsy like track is my prediction.

[Blown Away]

The Upper Level Low to the W of Hanna sure has weakened compared to yesterday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

is the ULL weakening, because it sure isn't moving away anymore... i know it was forecast to.weaken ...but what signs do we look for. it was also forecast to move west but it is "quasi-stationary".

also i see a very very vigourous LLC with hanna plowing toward the ull.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

seems the convection near the center is still going, although on visible it has that about to see some convective weakening appearance, as she closes distance to the ULL, but the thing i wonder is if hanna is gonna injest a big gulp of dry air soon or higher than forecast shear and perhaps a short term North motion.

i mean they are less than 5 full degrees in longitude apart

[Bocadude85]

That ULL seems to be filling in a little to me.. perhaps a sign of weakening

[RL3AO]

Didn't see this posted.

FIX TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 31/16Z.

[greels]

Wow! I am somewhat at a loss for words....

"Interests in the Turks & Caicos Islands and SE Bahamas should monitor the progress of Hanna"...

here we go .... again....

[gatorcane]

I see the ULL inducing a more NW motion of Hanna and think this will continue until the ULL either fizzles or moves far enough away.

It wouldn't surprise me if models slowly shift right some if this verifies.

[Blown Away]

I see the ULL inducing a more NW motion of Hanna and think this will continue until the ULL either fizzles or moves far enough away.

It wouldn't surprise me if models slowly shift right some if this verifies.

IMO, we will see the big SW model dive flatten out a little and the forward speed of the system will be a little faster. If Hanna is going to affect SFL it will be within 108 hours.

[gatorcane]

I don't buy a sharp South dip into Cuba at this time.

[HURAKAN]

Dangerous Hanna.

[Evil Jeremy]

The models really to seem to take this away from Florida. Is there actually a good chance of this missing Florida?

[gatorcane]

The models really to seem to take this away from Florida. Is there actually a good chance of this missing Florida?

too early to call.

[Bocadude85]

The models are 5 days out.. the tracks they are showing wont verify we all know that.. we just need to look at the trends.. the one trend im seeing is a turn to the wnw after her southward dive.... both the GFS and GFDL have her moving NW at the end of their runs.

[Fego]

Hanna is in the Eastern Atlantic. Make it northeast. Btw... Cuba, Florida and Hispaniola must keep both eyes in Hanna.

[Evil Jeremy]

It is like the trof is pushing the system south, not pulling it north lol.

[SWFLA_CANE]

The models are 5 days out.. the tracks they are showing wont verify we all know that.. we just need to look at the trends.. the one trend im seeing is a turn to the wnw after her southward dive.... both the GFS and GFDL have her moving NW at the end of their runs.

So does CMC...I know its the CMC but it is another model that goes south of Fla. and then brings Hanna back north west. 12Z has it just of SEFLA

[RL3AO]

Hanna is in the Eastern Atlantic. Make it northeast. Btw... Cuba, Florida and Hispaniola must keep both eyes in Hanna.

Can I get you a compass?