ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks almost like a Floyd path except landfall in SC to me.

If this run of the GFS verified hurricane watches would be required along the entire East coast of FL from Miami to Jax

It's different than Floyd because the 12Z run brings it within 30 miles of the SE Coast of FL and landfall a bit further up the coast

Floyd was much further off the coast of Florida.

[gatorcane]

Let's compare yesterday's 18Z GFS and today's 12Z GFS...what a west shift:

18Z GFS (yesterday evening):


12Z GFS (today midday):

[GTStorm]

Looks almost like a Floyd path except landfall in SC to me.

If the current westward trend holds (which surprises me, I was sure that we'd see the typical eastward nudge from advisory to advisory)...I would guess that a path along the coast would inhibit development, so that it shouldn't be a monster like Floyd was.

[Steve H.]

Now waiting for the NOGAPS, GFDL should be interesting and the HWRF. BTW, this should nail the Carolinas also, regardless of the Florida impact.

[txwatcher91]

Ensembles show further N also.

[gatorcane]

Now waiting for the NOGAPS, GFDL should be interesting and the HWRF. BTW, this should nail the Carolinas also, regardless of the Florida impact.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see a near FL East Coast land fall or land fall followed by another landfall in the Carolinas somewhere....

[jlauderdal]

Let's compare yesterday's 18Z GFS and today's 12Z GFS...what a west shift:

18Z GFS (yesterday evening):


12Z GFS (today midday):

gator, are you comparing the same time frames

[gatorcane]

yes I am, here are the links:

12Z GFS (today midday):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif


18Z GFS (yesterday evening):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif

[sponger]

Ouch! If that track verifies my Southern evac to the parents is shut down. I will be on I 10 west with 4 million other people. Anyone know when the NOAA plane is scheduled to sample the outer envirionment?

[txwatcher91]

18z yesterday


12Z today, same time frame

[AJC3]

A couple points here....

I have high-res stuff to look at here at work, and the main difference between the 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFS is NOT that the 12Z run is farther west...it's that it is actually a little SLOWER by about one degrees SOUTH at each 6-hour increment. The eventually landfall point is nearly identical...the central GA coast. However, the 12Z run shows the center moving almost due north at the time it crosses the coast, while the 06Z run had it moving more NNW. If you micro-analyze the point it crosses the coast, it is actually a hair (and I mean a HAIR) farther northeast up the GA coast.

As far as the shear with Hanna goes, I had a quick look at the H25 and H20 streamline, shear and divergence analyses/short range forecasts. It's apparent that strong shear remains over Hanna, however the shear remains highly divergent, especially over and to the northeast of the center. I suspect we'll see this forced upward ascent aid convection during this period of strong shear...maybe not the extent that it did Monday, however I don't see Hanna becoming a naked low.

[txwatcher91]

yes I am, here are the links:

12Z GFS (today midday):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif


18Z GFS (yesterday evening):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif

You didn't use the same time. One is 06UTC Friday and the other is 12UTC Thursday, BIG difference.

[ronjon]

Now waiting for the NOGAPS, GFDL should be interesting and the HWRF. BTW, this should nail the Carolinas also, regardless of the Florida impact.

Maybe the western and central parts Steve - the mid-level ridge will be poking into eastern NC - most models have Hanna headed for the mountains of NC and WV - could be another drought buster for that area.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is noticeably more west than prior runs, there is no denying it.

[jdjaguar]

Ouch! If that track verifies my Southern evac to the parents is shut down. I will be on I 10 west with 4 million other people. Anyone know when the NOAA plane is scheduled to sample the outer envirionment?

same here.

My mom down in Vero usually evacs up here to JAX...and during Floyd I ATTEMPTED to evac to Vero.

Could not even reach Starke and turned around and came home (I was trying to get to I-75 south). Fortunate for us, Floyd turned away at the last moment.

If Hannah crawls up the coast..there is no going anywhere w/ 95 shutdown.

[jlauderdal]

yes I am, here are the links:

12Z GFS (today midday):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif


18Z GFS (yesterday evening):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066m.gif

yes but 18 hours elapsed yet you posted 66h plots both time so it isnt a fair comparison, i like the comparison idea but you need to take into account elapsed time..take a look at the post by tropicalwxwatcher

[txwatcher91]

The 12Z GFS is noticeably more west than prior runs, there is no denying it.

Prior to landfall, yes, but landfall, NO. It moves more N prior to landfall instead of NNW, look at AJC3's post.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is noticeably more west than prior runs, there is no denying it.

Prior to landfall, yes, but landfall, NO. It moves more N prior to landfall instead of NNW, look at AJC3's post.

I agree but if that 12Z GFS verifies, its close enough to the entire east coast of FL (including SE Florida) to create hurricane conditions if Hanna is a hurricane.

[jlauderdal]

A couple points here....

I have high-res stuff to look at here at work, and the main difference between the 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFS is NOT that the 12Z run is farther west...it's that it is actually a little SLOWER by about one degrees SOUTH at each 6-hour increment. The eventually landfall point is nearly identical...the central GA coast. However, the 12Z run shows the center moving almost due north at the time it crosses the coast, while the 06Z run had it moving more NNW. If you micro-analyze the point it crosses the coast, it is actually a hair (and I mean a HAIR) farther northeast up the GA coast.

As far as the shear with Hanna goes, I had a quick look at the H25 and H20 streamline, shear and divergence analyses/short range forecasts. It's apparent that strong shear remains over Hanna, however the shear remains highly divergent, especially over and to the northeast of the center. I suspect we'll see this forced upward ascent aid convection during this period of strong shear...maybe not the extent that it did Monday, however I don't see Hanna becoming a naked low.

so what you are saying is gfs remains the same and in your opinion the divergence is enough to overcome the shear until the shear relaxes and hanna should survive

[txwatcher91]

No doubt about that, I was just saying landfall is farther N. From Miami to Maine will likely have effects from Hanna.