ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

I thought that yesterday gatorcane but some of the models are showing the first trough may not be able to dig far enough to pick up Ike and lift it out, the GFS and ECM certainly hinting strongly on that now but still far too early to know.

By the way you lot in the Turks and Caicos better be underway with you preparations now because looks like Ike wil lbe there about 48hrs time.

[Jagno]

Trust me, we Gomers are taking notice and have been. We are more concerned right now for our Florida posters who may undoubtably been taking the first hit.

[jhpigott]

looks like the HMRF shifted N

[Frank P]

just looking at the trends fellas.. I know a lot can happen but right NOW I certainly don't like the trends... I hope you are right and the ridge is not that strong and it never comes close to MS... but previously experience with Ivan and Katrina makes me really look at where the models are trending attm... and now its going more west... next round of models rounds certainly can be different and probably will...

[Portastorm]

One thing I have noticed over many years of watching the first autumn front impacting the Gulf Coast, namely the WGOM ... the GFS always shows deep troughs and cold frontal passages in early September that don't materialize, thus the troughs are never as deep as progged and tend to be flatter. In reality, we don't see these until late September usually.

So in this case, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS-predicted troughs don't end up as deep as thought and Ike makes it past one or two of them before he finally hitches a ride poleward. Where that occurs is one of the big questions, but I am no longer believing a recurve of Ike will occur east of the Florida peninsula.

[Frank P]

Trust me, we Gomers are taking notice and have been. We are more concerned right now for our Florida posters who may undoubtably been taking the first hit.

great point and I certainly am concerned for SFL... where in my unprofessional opinion I think there is the greatest concern attm (other than the islands)... maybe it never makes it to the GOM.. that's accuweathers forecast... just have to keep watching the models and see how they trend..

[jenmrk]

I have two questions.
When will the models for intensity come out for these plots and when will the next model runs be issued. I know it can/will change this far out with recon and the length of time, just very curious.

[deltadog03]

Ok, Models will change all the time...The CONU is not looking very good....That would shoot the straits, plow threw the keys and head into the eastern gom. (not a good sign) Ok, with that said, Look at hanna now.....Remember 4 days ago or so we saw it coming awfully close to the fl mainland? Well, what happend?? They all shifted east away from florida the last couple of days right?? Well, look at where hanna is now....She is DARN close to florida now. That tells me 1 major thing.....The RIDGE is large and in charge......I am becoming more concerned that this DOES get to GOM and will reflect this in my new forecast when I get home.

[gatorcane]

Ok, Models will change all the time...The CONU is not looking very good....That would shoot the straits, plow threw the keys and head into the eastern gom. (not a good sign) Ok, with that said, Look at hanna now.....Remember 4 days ago or so we saw it coming awfully close to the fl mainland? Well, what happend?? They all shifted east away from florida the last couple of days right?? Well, look at where hanna is now....She is DARN close to florida now. That tells me 1 major thing.....The RIDGE is large and in charge......I am becoming more concerned that this DOES get to GOM and will reflect this in my new forecast when I get home.

But Hanna is clearly moving NW off of Florida and looks to have gotten strong enough to possibly leave behind a bit of a weakness albeit just enough to turn Ike NW into South Florida.

[Stratosphere747]

I don't know if they will do it since it's a pretty significant shift, but they might just track it through the Straits and into the GOM at 11.

[deltadog03]

She might be moving NW...I agree....But, If I remember correctly, the models the last couple of days were not this close to the mainland. Boca, this is not set in stone obviously, it can and will change...Sure, it could still move and recurve, but finding this loosing possibilities attm.. Don't get me wrong, I still think this either clips south florida or moves over the southern half.

[Vortex]

Does anyone have the link to hurricane andrew models when andrew was in the same position as ike..ive seen it posted before maybe a year or 2 ago.thanks

[Ivanhater]

My guess Strat is they will move it gradually, my bet is the keys

[DESTRUCTION5]

She might be moving NW...I agree....But, If I remember correctly, the models the last couple of days were not this close to the mainland. Boca, this is not set in stone obviously, it can and will change...Sure, it could still move and recurve, but finding this loosing possibilities attm.. Don't get me wrong, I still think this either clips south florida or moves over the southern half.

If this makes it into the Gulf all kinds of records would fall with its Lat location...

[boca]

Say Ike goes thru the Florida straits moving due west.What kind of weather would their be for Broward and Palm Beach counties if it were to take a track between cuba and the keys.

[Ivanhater]

She might be moving NW...I agree....But, If I remember correctly, the models the last couple of days were not this close to the mainland. Boca, this is not set in stone obviously, it can and will change...Sure, it could still move and recurve, but finding this loosing possibilities attm.. Don't get me wrong, I still think this either clips south florida or moves over the southern half.

If this makes it into the Gulf all kinds of records would fall with its Lat location...

It's not that far north in my opinion...Andrew was about the same latitude and made it to central Louisiana...

[deltadog03]

Sorry, Boca...I meant Gator....

[gatorcane]

well I won't get my hopes up for SE Florida until I see several runs over the course of today and tomorrow that keep shifting the track farther west....far away from SE Florida

I have a feeling the models will start shifting back east again...flip flop around some like they normaly do..

The HWRF has already started shifting back east.

[Sanibel]

models are flopping back and forth -- look for them to shift east again...

This is what I said yesterday. Though Fay was a different strength storm the track was roughly similar coming from the east and recurving. The models were first off Miami in the Gulf Stream. They then went way west out in the Gulf west of me and finally came back to the middle. So far the models are doing exactly that. Too early to say but the worst track for us on the west coast of Florida is still in play. (Go to gut. Instinct says GOM.)

[KWT]

Yep the models will keep shifting, the 06z HWRF is a slight shift east as is the GFDL but we are getting close to the range where we can sort of slim down the odds and whilstthe GFDL and HWRf may have trended east the GFS took a big step to the west, now that may change again in the 12z I'm not sure.

We will find out in just over an hour.