ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[rtd2]

Movement between VDMs was 304 at 15.2 kt.

VDM's ?? thanks

Vortex Data Message.

It's the center fix from the recon plane.

many thanks!

[ROCK]

quote="hiflyer"]

Stormcenter- not being nick picky but your using the wrong heights. ....Gus is around 958.....so adjust your heights and see the current steering layers....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

How do you determine the appropriate steering layer?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[mvtrucking]

It is defintely moving faster as it was supposed to get to the next forecast point at 9:00 pm tonight, it now looks like it is several hours ahead of that?

[amawea]

Hey HouTxmetro, My wife is from Jeanerette and has a lot of kin staying there thru this.

[ncweatherwizard]

A piece of good news.




Category 2 at landfall IMO.

Granted, the shear gets stronger to the north, but alot of that is due to upper level outflow ahead of the hurricane itself.

[rtd2]

quote="hiflyer"]

Stormcenter- not being nick picky but your using the wrong heights. ....Gus is around 958.....so adjust your heights and see the current steering layers....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

How do you determine the appropriate steering layer?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html


You can go +/- 3 hrs.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, the faster, of course, means an early morning landfall and those are the worst to go thru.

[Ivanhater]

Getting the outer rainbands now...really windy and pouring rain with this first rainband

[funster]

Anyone know why this shows Gustav re-intensifying as a hurricane in NE Texas? Crazy.

[tolakram]

Moisture continues to improve on the south side but overall I'm not sure if this image is showing increased organization or not.

[wxman57]

Went back and measured a movement from 1402Z to 2002Z and got 99nm. That's 16.5 kts over 6 hrs. Heading 306 degrees past 6 hrs. But it's moving faster now.

[ColdFusion]

So this is the end of the 'trending to the east' I assume. The westerly component seems to be increasing now, and fast.

[rockyman]

Hey, folks, phone service has been disconnected to parts of Dauphin Island...so I'm using my cell phone for internet service...forgive me if this has already been posted...but the steering flow for a sub-940 hurricane is from the SE or SSE...while the steering flow for a weaker hurricane is fro the SE or ESE. IOW, the stronger the storm, the more northerly it should track...Is this correct?

STRONGER


WEAKER

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not sure about weakening to Cat 2 before landfall, but it does seem less likely it will make it back to Cat 4. Not sure why it never really came back after Cuba, but it might finallly be strengthening a little bit, just based on last satellite frame.

I'd still act as if it is a Cat 4 at landfall, however...

[soonertwister]

It is defintely moving faster as it was supposed to get to the next forecast point at 9:00 pm tonight, it now looks like it is several hours ahead of that?

7 pm CDT (0000Z) position prediction from 10 am CDT update: 27.0N 87.7W

That's a movement of 00.97N 00.77W from VDM fix at about about 2:17 pm CDT (1817Z) today.

I'll let someone else do the math.

[Dean4Storms]

One good thing about it, between Fay, Gustav and probably Hannah the drought in the SE US will likely be ended!

[wxmann_91]

I'm not sure about weakening to Cat 2 before landfall, but it does seem less likely it will make it back to Cat 4. Not sure why it never really came back after Cuba, but it might finallly be strengthening a little bit, just based on last satellite frame.

I'd still act as if it is a Cat 4 at landfall, however...

Shear. Looks like the shear weakened a bit this morning, so it got its act back together for a short time, but it's picking up again now.

[KWT]

Ed, it seems to be holding steady right now, I'm starting to think that any changes in its current strength will be fairly slight, the eye once again getting covered with a big convective blow up on the western eyewall.

Also its certainly moving quickly, don't expect any real weakening before landfall, just won't have time to do anything drastic in either direction.

[Evac3]

It is defintely moving faster as it was supposed to get to the next forecast point at 9:00 pm tonight, it now looks like it is several hours ahead of that?

7 pm CDT (0000Z) position prediction from 10 am CDT update: 27.0N 87.7W

That's a movement of 00.97N 00.77W from VDM fix at about about 2:17 pm CDT (1817Z) today.

I'll let someone else do the math.

What does that mean???

[Dean4Storms]

Hey, folks, phone service has been disconnected to parts of Dauphin Island...so I'm using my cell phone for internet service...forgive me if this has already been posted...but the steering flow for a sub-940 hurricane is from the SE or SSE...while the steering flow for a weaker hurricane is fro the SE or ESE. IOW, the stronger the storm, the more northerly it should track...Is this correct?

STRONGER


WEAKER

That seems to be what we've seen Rockyman, lets hope he stays weaker.