ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[tolakram]

Another round of convection wrapping around the center but look how close the center is to the edge of convection.

[Texashawk]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

[LizzardInFlorida]

My weather widget shows 25 mph ESE winds in here in St. Pete. We just drove back from Siesta Key a couple of hours ago... We got dumped on all yesterday from the rain bands.

I wouldn't let my boyfriend drive over the Skyway bridge, as that bridge scares me in high winds.

[Steve Cosby]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

I agree - Water Vapor and the way the cloud shield looks seems like it is pointing more to the west.

With the usual caveat that I obviously don't have a professional clue...

[Brent]

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS.

[rtd2]

It is defintely moving faster as it was supposed to get to the next forecast point at 9:00 pm tonight, it now looks like it is several hours ahead of that?

7 pm CDT (0000Z) position prediction from 10 am CDT update: 27.0N 87.7W

That's a movement of 00.97N 00.77W from VDM fix at about about 2:17 pm CDT (1817Z) today.

I'll let someone else do the math.

What does that mean???

It moved .97 to the north and .77 to the west which is with past recon(nw)

[HouTXmetro]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

Could be wobbles. It is pushing against a Ridge and some of the newest models have it coming in from East Vermilion Bay all the to the Cameron Parish which borders TX. We will just have to continue to watch.

[shah8]

The attempted ringing with deep convection has made the SE side... It's is about halfway done. Gotta hurry up if it wants to intensify further...

[dhweather]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

That's part of the problem of staring at these things endlessly - your eyes do weird things.

I believe Gus is right on the NHC track.

[Wx_Warrior]

Moving NW @ 18 winds sustained @ 115

[vaffie]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

It's too early to know. Just a couple degrees will make a huge difference in landfall sites. Over the past couple hours, based on recon data, it's turned more to the west, but we need to see if that is continuing. We should know a bit more in about 20 minutes when the next flyover occurs. Otherwise the official track is now east of all of the global and regional models. Only the nondynamic ones are east of it, so it looks more likely (to me anyway) to be further west. It will still be in the cone, but it's a pretty big cone. The fact that it's a bit weaker will make it tend to go more west too, and the shear may have a westerly effect. It's a constantly changing situation. Who knows.

[Dean4Storms]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

It looks like it did jog a bit more WNW but it is likely stair stepping along the ridge and looks to be right on the NHC track.

[HouTXmetro]

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS.

They must see the High building in stronger according to the models.

[Steve Cosby]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

That's part of the problem of staring at these things endlessly - your eyes do weird things.

I believe Gus is right on the NHC track.

Maybe so but 4PM extends hurricane warning westward...

[txag2005]

I just read on another forum that many think there is a westerly turn over the past few hours. I have no idea how to tell those things.

Do we have anything to worry about here in Houston/SE Texas?? Seems like this thing may be moving west earlier than expected.

[rtd2]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

That's part of the problem of staring at these things endlessly - your eyes do weird things.

I believe Gus is right on the NHC track.

Maybe so but 4PM extends hurricane warning westward...

Could be in consideration of post landfall

[Steve Cosby]

That's part of the problem of staring at these things endlessly - your eyes do weird things.

I believe Gus is right on the NHC track.

Maybe so but 4PM extends hurricane warning westward...

Could be in consideration of post landfall

Could also be in recognition of trending west along with the models staying over that way.

[PhillyWX]

Imagery of Gustav on New Orleans TV with the 5 ET advisory:

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ns-tv.html

[cpdaman]

OK.. I know I'm not crazy, but I've been looking at 1 KM visible imagery for the last 2 hours and I swear this thing is moving more WNW. It's going to go way under NO at this rate... does anybody else notice this, or am I just a crazy man?

It looks like it did jog a bit more WNW but it is likely stair stepping along the ridge and looks to be right on the NHC track.

i notice this as well........i would give it another two hours and then .......stay alert since

hurricane warning extends now to high island texas

[tolakram]

2100Z

http://markalot.org/gearth.html