ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is now bigger then Katrina...It now has tropical storm force winds out to 255 nmi from the core, while katrina had only 230 nmi. This thing is getting big.

[Duddy]

This is now bigger then Katrina...It now has tropical storm force winds out to 255 nmi from the core, while katrina had only 230 nmi. This thing is getting big.

Ratchet up the stress factor.

[funster]

Ike seems to get bigger with each update. Will cause widespread damage in Texas with those 115 miles of hurricane force winds.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

[dwg71]

This is now bigger then Katrina...It now has tropical storm force winds out to 255 nmi from the core, while katrina had only 230 nmi. This thing is getting big.

i see 220 on the nhc forecast, where did you see 255

found it, but they only list 220 in the forecast.

[funster]

This is now bigger then Katrina...It now has tropical storm force winds out to 255 nmi from the core, while katrina had only 230 nmi. This thing is getting big.

Yup, and hurricane force winds out 115 with Ike.

[funster]

This is now bigger then Katrina...It now has tropical storm force winds out to 255 nmi from the core, while katrina had only 230 nmi. This thing is getting big.

i see 220 on the nhc forecast, where did you see 255

In the new public advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I will predict that the tropical storm force winds at their max will go out to 320 nmi...This is as it is making landfall.

I also feel that hurricane force winds will go from 115 nmi to 150-160 nmi.

Does anyone agree???

[dwg71]

3 hours ago on the path to the right, there were two wind maximums at flight level. Now that's changing on the latest pass.

quoted from recon thread

winds dont seem to be as high near the center and pressure is up slightly, Ike will take some time to organize it, but this could weaken it in short term and help its overall structure down the road. might even reduce windfield size

[dwg71]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I will predict that the tropical storm force winds at their max will go out to 320 nmi...This is as it is making landfall.

I also feel that hurricane force winds will go from 115 nmi to 150-160 nmi.

Does anyone agree???

no, i say less than 100 or right at it. nhc agrees with a smaller range than you speaking of

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I will predict that the tropical storm force winds at their max will go out to 320 nmi...This is as it is making landfall.

I also feel that hurricane force winds will go from 115 nmi to 150-160 nmi.

Does anyone agree???

no, i say less than 100 or right at it. nhc agrees with a smaller range than you speaking of

Most cyclones as they get older grow in size.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

3 hours ago on the path to the right, there were two wind maximums at flight level. Now that's changing on the latest pass.

quoted from recon thread

winds dont seem to be as high near the center and pressure is up slightly, Ike will take some time to organize it, but this could weaken it in short term and help its overall structure down the road. might even reduce windfield size

Yes on the pass from Northeast to Southwest we saw that the strongest winds were located with in the outer wind maxima. Expect that to continue being the case with the outer wind maxima winds increasing and inner wind maxima winds decreasing. Also the outer wind maxima has started to contract according to the NHC.

[AZRainman]

Here's the closest bouy that is on Ike's forecast path (about 150 miles from the eye appx):
Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

[keithy joe]

GFDL slams IKE into Houston HWRF favours Corpus Christie, the mean between the two higher resolution models would nail Matagorda Bay, but left towards San Antonio and Right towards Freeport is prevalent at the moment. None of the major models are gunning for a more left shift than Christie at this stage, most CMC and GFS lower resolution favour the more right to emphasis towards Freeport. Most model consensus favours the Matagorda Bay for landfall with fewer outliers in the ensembles of tracking towards Christie meaning that it could be between Matagorda and Christie if we were to take the early model runs seriously.

Analysing the late model output of GFDL and HWRF primarily the scope is from Christie to Houston, naturally following earlier models the mean again points to the Matagorda area, now if IKE manages to reach CAT4 the dynamics can and do change and will favour a more right shift along the natural Coriolis deflection, if IKE remains CAT2/3 which would be favourable based on the latest models then a deviation mean between Christie and Houston seems the best outcome at this stage, until we get a little closer and attain some more information on the internal structure of IKE from air recon missions.

The main watch area is covered well in the latest NHC guidance, Corpus Christie upto Houston Texas Hurricane watch. Emphasis on a slight right shift on landfall covered with a tropical storm warning for Louisiana coast to Orleans, due to the extensive tropical wind swathe path of IKE, even the hurricane wind swath in IKE is increasing too.

[dwg71]

GFDL slams IKE into Houston HWRF favours Corpus Christie, the mean between the two higher resolution models would nail Matagorda Bay, but left towards San Antonio and Right towards Freeport is prevalent at the moment. None of the major models are gunning for a more left shift than Christie at this stage, most CMC and GFS lower resolution favour the more right to emphasis towards Freeport. Most model consensus favours the Matagorda Bay for landfall with fewer outliers in the ensembles of tracking towards Christie meaning that it could be between Matagorda and Christie if we were to take the early model runs seriously.

Analysing the late model output of GFDL and HWRF primarily the scope is from Christie to Houston, naturally following earlier models the mean again points to the Matagorda area, now if IKE manages to reach CAT4 the dynamics can and do change and will favour a more right shift along the natural Coriolis deflection, if IKE remains CAT2/3 which would be favourable based on the latest models then a deviation mean between Christie and Houston seems the best outcome at this stage, until we get a little closer and attain some more information on the internal structure of IKE from air recon missions.

The main watch area is covered well in the latest NHC guidance, Corpus Christie upto Houston Texas Hurricane watch. Emphasis on a slight right shift on landfall covered with a tropical storm warning for Louisiana coast to Orleans, due to the extensive tropical wind swathe path of IKE, even the hurricane wind swath in IKE is increasing too.

nice summary, i still think south of matagorda bay slightly. wv image appears to show high holding its place a the moment. any due west jog would make it go a little furthe south, and nw jog more north obviously.

[Roxy]

I cant find anything that estimates the storm surge at it's worst. If it comes in where they predict (Please Lord, no) then the entire Gulf will get pushed into Galveston Bay.

Does anyone have any idea how high the storm surge could get?

[gboudx]

I cant find anything that estimates the storm surge at it's worst. If it comes in where they predict (Please Lord, no) then the entire Gulf will get pushed into Galveston Bay.

Does anyone have any idea how high the storm surge could get?

Jeff Lidner provided some estimates. Check the Tropical Analysis forum, and look for the thread with his email updates. Start from the last postings.

[dwg71]

I cant find anything that estimates the storm surge at it's worst. If it comes in where they predict (Please Lord, no) then the entire Gulf will get pushed into Galveston Bay.

Does anyone have any idea how high the storm surge could get?

cat 2 may 4-6 feet if its near matagorda, cat 3 7-10 feet maybe...

if its closer those numbers would go to 6-8 and 7-16 with a direct hit.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I cant find anything that estimates the storm surge at it's worst. If it comes in where they predict (Please Lord, no) then the entire Gulf will get pushed into Galveston Bay.

Does anyone have any idea how high the storm surge could get?

I would say 10 to 15 feet with 20foot waves or higher as a cat 3
If it makes a landfall as a cat 4 then expect higher.

[AZRainman]

I cant find anything that estimates the storm surge at it's worst. If it comes in where they predict (Please Lord, no) then the entire Gulf will get pushed into Galveston Bay.

Does anyone have any idea how high the storm surge could get?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

Texas Storm Surge Models

[Cyclone Runner]

Station 42001 Buoy near centre of Ike showing pressure at 29.43