ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Tom8
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:36 pm
Location: Poland,Slupsk
Contact:

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8701 Postby Tom8 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:57 pm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26451955
Image

With the first clouds from Hurricane Gustav moving in, Interstate 10 in New Orleans was almost completely empty by midday Sunday. Most residents planning to leave apparently had done so since the highway had been packed earlier.


NEW ORLEANS - The Big Easy and other Louisiana coastal areas increasingly took on the eeriness of ghost towns Sunday as most residents heeded a mandatory evacuation order, and police and National Guard troops clamped down to prevent the kind of lawlessness and chaos that followed Katrina three years ago.

Col. Mike Edmondson, chief of the Louisiana State Police, said he believed over 90 percent of the coastal Louisiana population had fled — the largest evacuation in state history.

Large areas of southeast Louisiana, including sections in the greater New Orleans area, that are protected by levees face being flooding by several feet of water, according to Gustav surge models. Gustav appears likely to overwhelm the system of levees west of the city that have for decades been under-funded and neglected even as the population has grown.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26451955
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8702 Postby Steve Cosby » Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:57 pm

Lots of interesting stuff in the discussion this time:

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

... THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN
AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE
LOUISIANA COAST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER....


Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

#8703 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:59 pm

It does appear to have changed heading...the NHC track is most likely right on target, stellar forecasting by them.
0 likes   

PhillyWX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:54 am
Location: Philly
Contact:

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8704 Postby PhillyWX » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:00 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?


They don't even have a TS warning up for Galveston -- I doubt they'll get a hurricane warning but a TS warning wouldn't be a surprise.
0 likes   

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8705 Postby BigA » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:01 pm

954.4 pressure found. Still deepening. (was 958 around noon today)
0 likes   

User avatar
Tom8
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:36 pm
Location: Poland,Slupsk
Contact:

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8706 Postby Tom8 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:02 pm

txag2005 wrote:I just read on another forum that many think there is a westerly turn over the past few hours. I have no idea how to tell those things.

Do we have anything to worry about here in Houston/SE Texas?? Seems like this thing may be moving west earlier than expected.


No you have not to worry about

It is going to South Louisiana for sure ( the center ) , not to Texas for sure .

the rain in Texas posible
0 likes   

pablolopez26
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:10 pm

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8707 Postby pablolopez26 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:02 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?


How many hours away are we from landfall?

If it does move a little more to the left, then it seems to me Galveston would be under the warning as well.

Im surprised that Houston isnt under a Tropical Storm Warning.
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re:

#8708 Postby rtd2 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:03 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:It does appear to have changed heading...the NHC track is most likely right on target, stellar forecasting by them.




AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT





heading changed from 310 to 320 degrees?
Last edited by rtd2 on Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8709 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:03 pm

PhillyWX wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?


They don't even have a TS warning up for Galveston -- I doubt they'll get a hurricane warning but a TS warning wouldn't be a surprise.


I agree that a tropical storm watch at least (possibly a warning), is needed as far west as Port Lavaca. If the storm wobbles left then the tropical storm winds will extend out that far.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#8710 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:06 pm

Eye clouded over again by the deep convection over the eyewall, but indeed the pressure is dropping slowly but surely now it seems.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8711 Postby Steve Cosby » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
PhillyWX wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?


They don't even have a TS warning up for Galveston -- I doubt they'll get a hurricane warning but a TS warning wouldn't be a surprise.


I agree that a tropical storm watch at least (possibly a warning), is needed as far west as Port Lavaca. If the storm wobbles left then the tropical storm winds will extend out that far.


That all makes better sense - my apologies for silly hype!
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38101
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8712 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:06 pm

pablolopez26 wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:
Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?


How many hours away are we from landfall?


If it continues at this speed and track(meaning no left turn), it's gonna be ashore around daybreak. I think the NHC track is too slow.

If it goes a little left into that bay west of Morgan City it will be later.
0 likes   

User avatar
setxweathergal
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2006 2:50 pm
Location: Beaumont/Lumberton

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8713 Postby setxweathergal » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:10 pm

Tom8 wrote:
txag2005 wrote:I just read on another forum that many think there is a westerly turn over the past few hours. I have no idea how to tell those things.

Do we have anything to worry about here in Houston/SE Texas?? Seems like this thing may be moving west earlier than expected.


No you have not to worry abou..ut

It is going to South Louisiana for sure ( the center ) , not to Texas for sure .

the rain in Texas posible

I think you are probably correct...although it's kinda bold to be saying "for sure"...unless you have a crystal ball or something.
0 likes   

rainman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 45
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:42 am
Location: Texas

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8714 Postby rainman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:11 pm

can someone post a link to the satellite page that has the overlay for the tracks
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#8715 Postby gboudx » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:12 pm

Don't know if this link has been posted yet. But there are storm surge sensors. You can zoom in to the area you want to see. The red squares are surge sensors specifically.

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/gustav/?#

I don't what the "Gage height" data represents but I'll notice what it is now to compare up Barataria Bay for tomorrow morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8716 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:12 pm

Looks like the LLC is trying to get closer to the MLC....(which is a bit further NE) than llc...
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#8717 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:12 pm

I agree Brent unless this system does slow down quite a lot from where it is, thats possible but we shall see.

I think I'm going to get up quite early this side of the Atlantic for the strongest landfalling hurricane since Wilma probably.

Also the warning being extended westward does make sense, given the slight shift westward from the NHC.
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re:

#8718 Postby rtd2 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:14 pm

gboudx wrote:Don't know if this link has been posted yet. But there are storm surge sensors. You can zoom in to the area you want to see. The red squares are surge sensors specifically.

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/gustav/?#

I don't what the "Gage height" data represents but I'll notice what it is now to compare up Barataria Bay for tomorrow morning.




Good link..ty
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8719 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:14 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Looks like the LLC is trying to get closer to the MLC....(which is a bit further NE) than llc...



Pardon? Im confused about what you are referring to....do you mind explaining it to me?
0 likes   

PhillyWX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:54 am
Location: Philly
Contact:

Re: 4PM Discussion

#8720 Postby PhillyWX » Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
PhillyWX wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:Hence the reason for the shift westward in the hurricane warning.

Any bets for including Galveston Island in the next westward extension?


They don't even have a TS warning up for Galveston -- I doubt they'll get a hurricane warning but a TS warning wouldn't be a surprise.


I agree that a tropical storm watch at least (possibly a warning), is needed as far west as Port Lavaca. If the storm wobbles left then the tropical storm winds will extend out that far.


I would agree with that but given they will be on the weaker side they may some surge come down the bay but nothing to substantial. The coast angle could make it interesting to see how much scraping Gustav will do before coming fully on-shore.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests