ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Bgator]

Very heavy rain in coconut grove again here in miami, not SUPER windy, but picked up.

[NEXRAD]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

The NHC is still probalby thinking it will be a hurricane. But since landfall will occur between forecast points, it doesn't show it.

The overall impacts of a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane are about the same. The difference between 65 or 70 mph winds versus 75 or 80 mph winds is not too substantial for land impacts.

- Jay

[fci]

I think it would be ridiculous to cancel school for tomorrow but we will see......

[srainhoutx]

Fay is certainly taking her sweet time doing the "Duval Crawl".

[tolakram]

Radar signature seems to be rapidly improving.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think she is about to go NNE within the next 6 hours ago. As soon as the trough axis racing through Miss/Georgia passes the longitude Fay is over, it should happen. I think Fay winds up moving up the state East of Ft.Myers and Naples by anywhere from 25-50 miles and favors the eastern side of the NHC cone (another track nudge East may happen at the 11pm EST advisory).

bump for member comment.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is what I see:

The center of Fay has not crossed above the Keys yet (Jim Cantory agrees)
Fay is slowing down drastically
Convection is forming on the southern side of Fay

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[HurricaneHunter914]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

I'm suprised your still here...

And just to let you know, there's VERY little difference between a 70 mph TS and a 75 mph Hurricane.

[VeniceInlet]

So three of the models now show it hanging a hard left once it reaches the east coast of FL, and re-emerging into the Gulf upstate. Hmm.

[GreenSky]

[quote=\\\"RL3AO\\\"][quote=\\\"GreenSky\\\"]Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm[/quote]

The NHC is still probalby thinking it will be a hurricane. But since landfall will occur between forecast points, it doesn\\\'t show it.[/quote]

Are you serious? Because I was watching an online stream of some Miami based news station where the local meteorologist (some guy for NBC6, John Gerard\\\'s younger coworker meteorologist) said that the NHC is \\\"no longer expecting Fay to reach hurricane status. Just 10 to 15 mph more to the current wind speed and Fay becomes a hurricane, but Fay not reaching hurricane status is very significant.\\\"

from nbc6.net weatherplus

[tolakram]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

satellite...radar...and aircraft data indicate that Fay has become
better organized this afternoon. The convective banding has
increased around the center...and the radius of maximum winds has
contracted to about 30 N mi. Additionally...the central pressure
has fallen to 998 mb. However...this has not yet caused the winds
to increase...as aircraft...radar...and surface data suggest the
maximum winds remain about 50 kt. It should be noted that a tcu
was issued noting landfall when the winds at Key West went calm at
3 PM. Later data suggests this was due to a mesoscale feature
rotating around the larger center of the storm...and the true
center of Fay is over Key West now.

[RL3AO]

That was a great discussion from the NHC.

[fci]

If you ask me, I think PBC is shooting itself in the foot this time. When the general consensus around you is in agreement about closing down...normally you go with the trend. Major foot in the mouth this time Palm Beach. My kids get out of school at 4 today; about the same time we will probably start seeing the nasty weather starting to come in.

Well I picked up my kids from their buses at 3:45 and 4:25 and the weather was a little rainy.
Nicer than a typical thunderstormy afternoon.
NO HEAVY RAIN AND NO WINDS.

Absolutely no foot in mouth for Palm Beach County.
In my opinion, a major foot in mouth for Dade and Broward for closing schools for "a rainy day"!!!!

[Canelaw99]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

Actually, if you read the NHC 5pm discussion, they still say it could become a hurricane at or near landfall.....she's organizing, that's for sure.

[Evil Jeremy]

Disco tibits:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK...WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.

[artist]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

The NHC is still probalby thinking it will be a hurricane. But since landfall will occur between forecast points, it doesn't show it.

The overall impacts of a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane are about the same. The difference between 65 or 70 mph winds versus 75 or 80 mph winds is not too substantial for land impacts.

- Jay

what is this new thing from the NHC areas with hurricane warnings yet they are not in the cone? Does not make sense to me at all.

[Evil Jeremy]

[quote=\\\"RL3AO\\\"][quote=\\\"GreenSky\\\"]Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

The NHC is still probalby thinking it will be a hurricane. But since landfall will occur between forecast points, it doesn\\\'t show it.[/quote]

Are you serious? Because I was watching an online stream of some Miami based news station where the local meteorologist (some guy for NBC6, John Gerard\\\'s younger coworker meteorologist) said that the NHC is \\\"no longer expecting Fay to reach hurricane status. Just 10 to 15 mph more to the current wind speed and Fay becomes a hurricane, but Fay not reaching hurricane status is very significant.\\\"

from nbc6.net weatherplus[/quote]

Wise words that my dad taught me: Don't believe everything you hear

[RL3AO]

Are you serious? Because I was watching an online stream of some Miami based news station where the local meteorologist (some guy for NBC6, John Gerard\\\'s younger coworker meteorologist) said that the NHC is \\\"no longer expecting Fay to reach hurricane status. Just 10 to 15 mph more to the current wind speed and Fay becomes a hurricane, but Fay not reaching hurricane status is very significant.\\\"

from nbc6.net weatherplus

From the NHC discussion.

WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

[Bgator]

REALLY heavy rain band here in downtown miami area, not to windy, but blinding rain.

[johngaltfla]

That advisory leaves you scratching your head????

Think about it this storm is getting its act together from 4:30 onward that info from the nhc is older than that so you are seeing an ever evolving storm and it is leaving that advisory in the dust.

Unfortunately our local mets are eating it up and calling "storm cancel" basically and just advising that it will be nothing more than a TS when it gets here. If it stays on a 345 course for 6-12 more hours a lot of people are going to wake up somewhat surprised in the morning. Every NW jog or wobble around the ridge means an impact north of Captiva. That's my landmark and I hope that the NHC is all over this. I know she's been a pain to forecast but every minute over these warm waters gives Fay a chance to intensify.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products