ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Latest passes - 960 - 957 - 956


Gus is following NHC track now so accurately it's boring. Firmly under the predicted High and veering slightly left. Throw out all thoughts of "storms tend to go east at landfall in the Gulf".


Thinking Morgan City now more than Houma. But Houma will get its share.

Modest drops, but intensifying on approach. Finally showing loop current effect.

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[Weather Watcher]

This buoy near NO. Winds already increasing.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

Look at this buoy (ship) what it is reporting. Look at the wave height


ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 1800 27.80 -86.00 109 39 50 60.0 - 45.9

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

[Tom8]

My appologieze
it is not going to turn east .

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I think heading is pretty much similar as to what it has been before, its really not easy to track based on sat.imagery simply because the eye is constantly changing shape as the convective bursts in the eyewall overflow over the eye region.

[BigB0882]

Can someone explain how this is veering left of track? I thought the NHC had this worked into the track and it is still heading at a rather NW motion at 310 and 320. Is it because it started the movement earlier than expected? Is it the speed? Or is the 310/320 movement not accurate? Would NHC fib the movement like they sometimes do the strength to keep everyone on their toes?

[Weatherfreak000]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

[alicia83]

Will D-Max have any effect on Gus?

[Texashawk]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

That doesn't make any sense... it looks in hi-res visible for the last 2 or so hours like it's almost moving due west - unless the center is reforming more north, but the CDO (and the spin under it) appears to be moving west or just north of west since about 2:30 CDT. This motion has also been confirmed (visually) by some pro mets.

[KWT]

Hurakan, impressive image there, whilst Gustav doesn't look super strong it still looks like a low end cat-3 to me and its got a decent shape to it as well.

Weatherfreak000, if thats true then thats very very bad news indeed for N.O....

[cpdaman]

Yep cycloneye slow strengthening seems to be occuring as the shear slowly eases just a notch.

Also still moving at a decent clip, maybe slight strengthen as Matt said but nothing too much it seems right now unless we see some changes now.

i think the mid lever dry air was the bigger culprit

[BigB0882]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

That doesn't make any sense... it looks in hi-res visible for the last 2 or so hours like it's almost moving due west - unless the center is reforming more north, but the CDO (and the spin under it) appears to be moving west or just north of west since about 2:30 CDT. This motion has also been confirmed (visually) by some pro mets.

I certainly havent seen anything close to a due W movement but I have seen many people comment on a more Western movement than the NHC has reported. Not sure what to believe, I guess I go with NHC?

[rtd2]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

That doesn't make any sense... it looks in hi-res visible for the last 2 or so hours like it's almost moving due west - unless the center is reforming more north, but the CDO (and the spin under it) appears to be moving west or just north of west since about 2:30 CDT. This motion has also been confirmed (visually) by some pro mets.

i think the eye is still oblong and the storm is tilted which along with sheer could explain why it hasnt rapidly intinsified?

[funster]

It hasn't strengthened but it is bigger... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM.

[KWT]

i think the mid lever dry air was the bigger culprit

Possibly but then again if that was the reason then it should be slowly having a bigger and bigger impact as it gets closer. Based on that you've got to think the 15-20kts of shear that has been over Gustav is the main driving force. I remember Derek saying once that shear and mid level dry air do tend to work in harmony, because you can't get the dry air in without some sort of shearing effect.

[Stormcenter]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

upper level divergence above 50

[Sabanic]

First strong heavy rain band moving in here now with some wind also.

[Noles2006]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

Sure they do.

Recon tells the true story.

[Weatherfreak000]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

That doesn't make any sense... it looks in hi-res visible for the last 2 or so hours like it's almost moving due west - unless the center is reforming more north, but the CDO (and the spin under it) appears to be moving west or just north of west since about 2:30 CDT. This motion has also been confirmed (visually) by some pro mets.

Pardon? You can bring up any satellite imagery and see that's not happening...I agree it's trending more of a westerly motion but no where near WNW....if anything NW now.