ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Lowpressure]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

Agreed, making a bee line to the LA coastline. Unless something very radical happens soon, this will not be a Texas landfall, those who insist on this please stop. This will be a LA landfall. Texas will get your share of rain and squally weather once ashore.

[rtd2]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

That doesn't make any sense... it looks in hi-res visible for the last 2 or so hours like it's almost moving due west - unless the center is reforming more north, but the CDO (and the spin under it) appears to be moving west or just north of west since about 2:30 CDT. This motion has also been confirmed (visually) by some pro mets.

Pardon? You can bring up any satellite imagery and see that's not happening...I agree it's trending more of a westerly motion but no where near WNW....if anything NW now.

sounds like my golf game....left, right,left

[Ivanhater]

First strong heavy rain band moving in here now with some wind also.

Yep, came through Pensacola bout an hour ago..Mobile/Pensacola about to get the more solid bands in a few hours

[HURAKAN]

In a few hours sustained TS winds should begin to impact SELA.

[BigB0882]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yes, I agree. I did the simple, quite unscientific approach of putting a pencil on the starting point of the center and my mouse at the ending point then using a straight edge to draw the extrapolated line. For me it pointed to landfall right where the NHC is predicting. NHC continues to impress.

[Stormcenter]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

Agreed, making a bee line to the LA coastline. Unless something very radical happens soon, this will not be a Texas landfall, those who insist on this please stop. This will be a LA landfall. Texas will get your share of rain and squally weather once ashore.

I don't see a TX. landfall at all. Maybe as far west as Cameron Parish.

[Texashawk]

so recon confirms it is still Moving NW...and even occasionally wobbling NNW.


I'd say thats very bad news for NO....i'd sure like to see it stop wobbling....but I just dont see this storm changing this general motion until landfall.

That doesn't make any sense... it looks in hi-res visible for the last 2 or so hours like it's almost moving due west - unless the center is reforming more north, but the CDO (and the spin under it) appears to be moving west or just north of west since about 2:30 CDT. This motion has also been confirmed (visually) by some pro mets.

Pardon? You can bring up any satellite imagery and see that's not happening...I agree it's trending more of a westerly motion but no where near WNW....if anything NW now.

I think what may be happening is that the CDO of Gustav is moving more west.. but the LLC is moving more NW or NNW. You can sort of see the spin within the larger mass moving generally westward, at least that's what I see.

[Windy]

Lol, it's the wobble ritual. It happens every year in here and nobody ever learns. People see it wobble a bit to the west and suddenly it's headed for Texas. People see it wobble to the east and suddenly it's headed for Florida. A group of scientists pile into a plane and fly right into the dang thing to settle it once and for all, and lo and behold, it's actually still going where it's been going and where it's been consistantly predicted to go for the past few days. Everyone is quiet for a while until someone notices that it's wobbling a bit to west...

[Viper54r]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Uhhh, yeah they do...recon is the only thing that is 100% reliable

[BigB0882]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

Agreed, making a bee line to the LA coastline. Unless something very radical happens soon, this will not be a Texas landfall, those who insist on this please stop. This will be a LA landfall. Texas will get your share of rain and squally weather once ashore.

I don't see a LA. landfall at all. Maybe as far west as Cameron Parish.

Typo? I think you meant to say TX because "as far west as Cameron" means you can't see it landfalling in TX unless I am completely misunderstanding you.

[Stormcenter]

I meant to say "I don't see a TX. landfall" in the cards.

[BlackNGoldRules]

Just watching TWC and they said the hurricane hunters found a "hole in the eyewall".

[rtd2]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Uhhh, yeah they do...recon is the only thing that is 100% reliable

I think he was joking!

[Weatherfreak000]

Wobble watches aside...lol.



This thing...is now DEFINITELY organizing...the last satellite loop is IMPRESSIVE. The convection seems to completely wrapped around the eye....I know it may be premature...but this storm I believe still may make a run for Cat 4...if not near it.



Remember the lesson from Isabel and other intense hurricanes... SST's are important...but the Gulf is in general capable of sustaining a Category 4 throughout the Gulf...if conditions are improving (which they seem to be...given the latest appearance) this storm can still intensify at a brisk pace.


Also remember...there is a difference between an intensifying storm and a weakening storm at landfall.

[Viper54r]

Lol, it's the wobble ritual. It happens every year in here and nobody ever learns. People see it wobble a bit to the west and suddenly it's headed for Texas. People see it wobble to the east and suddenly it's headed for Florida. A group of scientists pile into a plane and fly right into the dang thing to settle it once and for all, and lo and behold, it's actually still going where it's been going and where it's been consistantly predicted to go for the past few days. Everyone is quiet for a while until someone notices that it's wobbling a bit to west...

Now it seems those group of scientist are unreliable because people are convinced the satellite loops they are watching on their $1000 computer are more reliable then recon fixes

[BigA]

Just watching TWC and they said the hurricane hunters found a "hole in the eyewall".

They probably mean an open eyewall, but every storm should have "a hole in the eyewall," meaning the eye.

[ZZ3Astro]

According to my bouy/cman station data, there is a ship 160 miles south of Panama City Fl right now reporting 78 MPH from the NE (50 deg), visibility 0.025 and 11 meter waves! I hope this is some kind of temporary bouy and not a manned ship, although 11 meter waves would be quite an interesting experience if the ship was large enough.

[Tom8]

[Stormcenter]

Wobble watches aside...lol.



This thing...is now DEFINITELY organizing...the last satellite loop is IMPRESSIVE. The convection seems to completely wrapped around the eye....I know it may be premature...but this storm I believe still may make a run for Cat 4...if not near it.



Remember the lesson from Isabel and other intense hurricanes... SST's are important...but the Gulf is in general capable of sustaining a Category 4 throughout the Gulf...if conditions are improving (which they seem to be...given the latest appearance) this storm can still intensify at a brisk pace.


Also remember...there is a difference between an intensifying storm and a weakening storm at landfall.

All of the convection is still to the south of the center and drawing in tons of dry air from the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[dhweather]

And if it were not for that dry air, there would be a cat 5 300 miles SE of NOLA.