ATL: IKE Discussion

[invest man]

Can anyone discuss the fact that we now have and had 2 strong storms go over Cuba, go into the Gulf with expectations of becoming extremely dangerous and then kind of get limited to modest intensification at best. I would personally believe that the core structure gets somewhat disrupted over Cuba especially when they go over as well developed Hurricanes but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment, then take off better than something that had been better established. That being said this thing may or may not get up to cat 3 (or more) due to this, kind of like Gus. Any thoughts on this senario? IM

[KWT]

Well the thing is whilst its not got a very high wind region, its high winds (say 70kts at flight level) are very spread out, such a huge hurricane thats for sure is going to mean a big region of the Texas and maybe even W.LA could well get hurricane force winds, I think whenever it makes landfall, its gonig to be a mad day!

[physicx07]

Can anyone discuss the fact that we now have and had 2 strong storms go over Cuba, go into the Gulf with expectations of becoming extremely dangerous and then kind of get limited to modest intensification at best. I would personally believe that the core structure gets somewhat disrupted over Cuba especially when they go over as well developed Hurricanes but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment, then take off better than something that had been better established. That being said this thing may or may not get up to cat 3 (or more) due to this, kind of like Gus. Any thoughts on this senario? IM

I don't understand what you mean by this: but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment

Can you clarify? What's the more perfect environment? Do you mean a TS maybe just kind of adjusts to its environment whereas an stronger hurricane is in a sense more rigid and thus more fragile?

[keithy joe]

Hi KWT, where in the UK are you mate?

[KWT]

I'm still pretty amazed at how low the pressure is, there can't be many low end (100mph) cat-2 that have had a central pressure at 945mbs and even lower.

[Weatherfreak14]

I'm still pretty amazed at how low the pressure is, there can't be many low end (100mph) cat-2 that have had a central pressure at 945mbs and even lower.

I woke up and im still amazed that this is still a CAT 2, very odd to have 2 eyewalls in its structure for this long.

[Sanibel]

Another Gustav stumble in the Gulf. Good for landfall area. Pressure isn't equating to winds.

[O Town]

[KWT]

Another Gustav stumble in the Gulf. Good for landfall area. Pressure isn't equating to winds.

Indeed though in some ways its bad because people 100 miles away from the landfall may not take Ike too seriously and be totally unprepared for hurricane force winds, I can see it happening to be honest.

[HouTXmetro]

Another stumble in the Gulf? Ike is one of the largest storms to ever hit the gulf. Even at a 2 his effects will be widespread!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Highest flight level wind gusts in NE quadrant from Air Force recon:

85 mph flight level gust 8.5 miles from the center. (dying eyewall)
106 mph flight level gust 41 miles from the center.
111 mph flight level gust 80 miles from the center.
110 mph flight level gust 115 miles from the center.

Lots of wind maximums.

[Texas Snowman]

Harris County ordering a mandatory evac for Zones A and B beginning at 12 noon today.

As per KTRK-TV web feed on a live news conference held by Houston area emergency management officials.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sec ... id=6102015

[Rod Hagen]

Am I correct in thinking that Ike is about to move into the area of a thermal anomaly in the GOM, as shown at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8253go.jpg ?

What impact are the generally higher temps in the west of the Gulf, as shown at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 3gosst.png, likely to have?

[invest man]

Can anyone discuss the fact that we now have and had 2 strong storms go over Cuba, go into the Gulf with expectations of becoming extremely dangerous and then kind of get limited to modest intensification at best. I would personally believe that the core structure gets somewhat disrupted over Cuba especially when they go over as well developed Hurricanes but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment, then take off better than something that had been better established. That being said this thing may or may not get up to cat 3 (or more) due to this, kind of like Gus. Any thoughts on this senario? IM

I don't understand what you mean by this: but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment

Can you clarify? What's the more perfect environment? Do you mean a TS maybe just kind of adjusts to its environment whereas an stronger hurricane is in a sense more rigid and thus more fragile?

More perfect by high oceanic heat content, loop currents or eddy's and a better (less) shear environment.. My question is exactly what yours is. Is a more structured hurricane more apt to be more "fragile" coming off Cuba than a system with a less than perfect structure? Because at least this year it appears that way! IM

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Am I correct in thinking that Ike is about to move into the area of a thermal anomaly in the GOM, as shown at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8253go.jpg ?

He's actually departing the first one and will pass a bit north of the second one.

[physicx07]

Can anyone discuss the fact that we now have and had 2 strong storms go over Cuba, go into the Gulf with expectations of becoming extremely dangerous and then kind of get limited to modest intensification at best. I would personally believe that the core structure gets somewhat disrupted over Cuba especially when they go over as well developed Hurricanes but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment, then take off better than something that had been better established. That being said this thing may or may not get up to cat 3 (or more) due to this, kind of like Gus. Any thoughts on this senario? IM

I don't understand what you mean by this: but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment

Can you clarify? What's the more perfect environment? Do you mean a TS maybe just kind of adjusts to its environment whereas an stronger hurricane is in a sense more rigid and thus more fragile?

More perfect by high oceanic heat content, loop currents or eddy's and a better (less) shear environment.. My question is exactly what yours is. Is a more structured hurricane more apt to be more "fragile" coming off Cuba than a system with a less than perfect structure? Because at least this year it appears that way! IM

I think I understand, and I tend to think it's a valid hypothesis. Though I would tend to believe that it might be true in a general sense, not just this year.

[O Town]

Seems to be staying right on track this morning.

[KWT]

Yep those wind maxia is a bad thing as its clearly packing a hell of a punch even over a 100 miles away from the core, looks like cat-2 conditions are going to be experienced very far out from the center, I've got a bad feeling many people further away from the center are going to get rather caught out, just hope they pay attention to the officals.

[HURAKAN]

[keithy joe]

Can anyone discuss the fact that we now have and had 2 strong storms go over Cuba, go into the Gulf with expectations of becoming extremely dangerous and then kind of get limited to modest intensification at best. I would personally believe that the core structure gets somewhat disrupted over Cuba especially when they go over as well developed Hurricanes but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment, then take off better than something that had been better established. That being said this thing may or may not get up to cat 3 (or more) due to this, kind of like Gus. Any thoughts on this senario? IM

I don't understand what you mean by this: but as a ts or weaker may be able to sense the more perfect environment

Can you clarify? What's the more perfect environment? Do you mean a TS maybe just kind of adjusts to its environment whereas an stronger hurricane is in a sense more rigid and thus more fragile?

No, Personally I think it is more to do with the downstream windshear and upper level wind flow more than anything. The exact track of the hurricanes eye wall during its course through Cuba and the initial intensity before landfall. Here are a few factors to take into consideration in this respect:

* Intensity of the hurricane prior to landfall on Cuba ie. CAT4, CAT3 or lower

* Projected track of the hurricane over Cuba and the relative amount of time the eyewall interface traverses land and or the topography it encounters during the passge of land

* Combined affects of upper level steered flow, low upper level wind field and downstream shearing indices ie. Higher shear ahead of the storm would mean a more rapid cycloysis of the cyclone and deformation of sprial band organisation, as well as the combined affect of shear and upper level steering flow ahead the tracking of the eye of land or ocean and the amount of time it loses ingestion of warmer oceanic energy

* Gustav I believe moved into a higher sheared environment as it tracked across the GOM arena, which aided in a lesser intenisification than was otherwise possible, parts of Gustav was sheared apart in the process. IKE is moving into a lower sheared environment comparable to Gustav so as a result the same intensification is unlikely.

* Again, whether it is a CAT4 or CAT2 on landfall of Cuba (A combination of downstream shear - upper level wind flow) tracking across warm SST eddies and the loop current all helps strengthening providing the upper level atmospheric dynamics are in place.

The answer then is providing the storm circulation ahead of a Ts or stronger CAT1 hurricane ahead of storm motion is conducive for strengthening or at least supportive of retention, sprial organisation of convection should be mostly maintained, dependant on duration of track across oceanic stretches. No doubt though the eye wall crossing right through the centre of Cuba around the higher topographical areas will disrupt the inflow ingestion and cut off the heat and related latent heat release required to power the storms motion, therefore disorganisation and subsequent weakening is always to be expected in this scenario. What governs the liklihood of strengthening or retention after the passage of Cuba or any small island landmass is the environment it is moving into both oceanic ie. Loop current and high SST anomalies