ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BlackNGoldRules]

Wobble watches aside...lol.



This thing...is now DEFINITELY organizing...the last satellite loop is IMPRESSIVE. The convection seems to completely wrapped around the eye....I know it may be premature...but this storm I believe still may make a run for Cat 4...if not near it.



Remember the lesson from Isabel and other intense hurricanes... SST's are important...but the Gulf is in general capable of sustaining a Category 4 throughout the Gulf...if conditions are improving (which they seem to be...given the latest appearance) this storm can still intensify at a brisk pace.


Also remember...there is a difference between an intensifying storm and a weakening storm at landfall.

It's running out of time though. If it does intensify more, it'll probably be no more than 5 or 10 mph.

[ConvergenceZone]

I tried to mention earlier that this wasn't strengthening, but all I got was rolling eyes and disagreements.....It's possible that it can still landfall as a cat 3 though, although probably more at the low end range of a cat 3....

[Sanibel]

Innotech is going to have some stories for us...

[HURAKAN]

I don't see any dry air intrusion.

[chadtm80]

[rtd2]

And if it were not for that dry air, there would be a cat 5 300 miles SE of NOLA.

IR looks simular to when it exploded just before hitting the isle of youth near cuba!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[Squarethecircle]

I tried to mention earlier that this wasn't strengthening, but all I got was rolling eyes and disagreements.....It's possible that it can still landfall as a cat 3 though, although probably more at the low end range of a cat 3....

Possible, yes, only possible. It's certainly not likely. Especially because it's forecasted as such by the NHC, right?

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... on-in.html

Satellite loop of Gustav in Gulf over last 2 1/2 hours (large loop)

[BigA]

The idea of whether this storm is strengthening or weakening or holding its own seems pretty simple. If the pressure is falling, it is strengthening; it if is rising, it is weakening. This is how all low pressure systems in the world are measured. Right now, the pressure is falling somewhat, so it is getting a little bit stronger (962 to 956 today).

[bahamaswx]

Doesn't look to me like he's going to get his act together. Strong cat2 landfall won't surprise me.

[southerngale]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

Agreed, making a bee line to the LA coastline. Unless something very radical happens soon, this will not be a Texas landfall, those who insist on this please stop. This will be a LA landfall. Texas will get your share of rain and squally weather once ashore.

Please stop discussing the possibilities? SE TX is in a hurricane warning, and in the cone. It also seems to have moved a little more wnw lately (could just be a long wobble), but that makes some of us nervous. Although I agree that it will be a LA landfall, SE TX isn't out of the woods yet. At least that's what local officials and mets are saying. They aren't calling for a landfall here, but showing the possibilities. It is ridiculous to tell us to stop talking about it. We're in a mandatory evacuation here, but many of us haven't left because it does look like it will hit farther east. If there's any chance whatsoever that the forecasted westward turn could come earlier, we want to know. If people want to talk about it, they can.

Wherever it goes, I offer my prayers and hope it doesn't strengthen before landfall. But to those of you getting snippy about what others are discussing, please stop. Storm2k is a wonderful resource and for those who could be potentially affected, they should feel comfortable to ask questions, etc. When they see members being rude to others, it may keep them from participating.

[HURAKAN]

I hear a lot of comments about the dry air but I have not seen an image or graph indicating the dry air intrusion.

[BigB0882]

Earlier on TWC they showed the hurricane and tropical storm force wind radii. At the time it was when it was in weakening mode and the southwest side had all the convection. At the time they showed the hurricane force winds actually extending further out to the southwest than anywhere else. Now I am seeing more typical charts showing the hurricane winds extending slightly further out toward the northeast. Is this another sign that it has gotten its act together, if not strengthening but at least leveling out?

[KWT]

I think its pretty obvious its not really doing anything right other then staying pretty steady, there is some slight deepening in the pressure but not really enough to suggest any decent strengthening is occuring at the present time IMO.

[Brent]

Just watching TWC and they said the hurricane hunters found a "hole in the eyewall".

They probably mean an open eyewall, but every storm should have "a hole in the eyewall," meaning the eye.

Most likely, and the eye has been partially open since it left Cuba.

[KWT]

I hear a lot of comments about the dry air but I have not seen an image or graph indicating the dry air intrusion.

Yep the thing is there has been some shear but I just don't see this so called dry air, the reason its lopsided is because of the shear, its not severe but its enough to prevent strengthening right now.

[deltadog03]

The reason you are seeing the NNW or N or even NNE movement on the VDM's is because the LLC is pushing near the MLC....

[carversteve]

This is totally unofficial!!! He looks much better than say 3 or 4 hours ago..May not be a rapid strengthing..but he may surprise!!...The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[setxweathergal]

Satellite loops don't lie...NW to WNW IMO.

Agreed, making a bee line to the LA coastline. Unless something very radical happens soon, this will not be a Texas landfall, those who insist on this please stop. This will be a LA landfall. Texas will get your share of rain and squally weather once ashore.

Please stop discussing the possibilities? SE TX is in a hurricane warning, and in the cone. It also seems to have moved a little more wnw lately (could just be a long wobble), but that makes some of us nervous. Although I agree that it will be a LA landfall, SE TX isn't out of the woods yet. At least that's what local officials and mets are saying. They aren't calling for a landfall here, but showing the possibilities. It is ridiculous to tell us to stop talking about it. We're in a mandatory evacuation here, but many of us haven't left because it does look like it will hit farther east. If there's any chance whatsoever that the forecasted westward turn could come earlier, we want to know. If people want to talk about it, they can.

Wherever it goes, I offer my prayers and hope it doesn't strengthen before landfall. But to those of you getting snippy about what others are discussing, please stop. Storm2k is a wonderful resource and for those who could be potentially affected, they should feel comfortable to ask questions, etc. When they see members being rude to others, it may keep them from participating.

Excellent post, SG. I pray that those who didn't leave SETX will only feel minimal effects from Gustav!! It's a hard call! Stay safe!!

[superfly]

I hear a lot of comments about the dry air but I have not seen an image or graph indicating the dry air intrusion.

Yep the thing is there has been some shear but I just don't see this so called dry air, the reason its lopsided is because of the shear, its not severe but its enough to prevent strengthening right now.

You don't see all the dry air in the NE quad?