ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#881 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:24 am

KWT wrote:Yep the models will keep shifting, the 06z HWRF is a slight shift east as is the GFDL but we are getting close to the range where we can sort of slim down the odds and whilstthe GFDL and HWRf may have trended east the GFS took a big step to the west, now that may change again in the 12z I'm not sure.

We will find out in just over an hour.

I really hope they shift way west or way East...SE florida does not need this thing

Sanibel · #882 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:24 am

My guess Strat is they will move it gradually, my bet is the keys

Bingo.

#883 Postby **Trader Ron** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:44 am

Yesterday morning Looked like IKE might recurve
Last Night Aimed at Downtown Miami
This morning Might go South Of Florida.

I'll wait until Sunday/Monday. It's all speculation at this this.

With that said, it looks like someone will get whacked.

Stratosphere747 · #884 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:52 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:I don't know if they will do it since it's a pretty significant shift, but they might just track it through the Straits and into the GOM at 11.

Still a bit surprised...

#885 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:52 am

12Z NAM

Not likeing the 500mb steering pattern on this run one bit for the keys or sfl.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#886 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:53 am

Deleted. Posted in wrong forum

#887 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:28 am

GFS 12Z running shortly....

#888 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:33 am

12Z GFS just started

Bocadude85 · #889 Postby **Bocadude85** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:34 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS just started

my early call is 12z takes it through the straits

#890 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:41 am

Well so far out to 24 hours and 12Z GFS is now taking Ike more West instead of WSW so looks like it has shifted north.

Weatherfreak000 · #891 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:43 am

Unfortunately for SFL this storm is no longer a recurve situation. Models unanimously forecast the storm to affect you guys...

Last night I was thinking 75-25% in favor or recurve but now im thinking 50-50%. Everyone in the panhandle needs to watch out...the GFDL and HWRF have been spot on with this storm..and if they are right Ike may get very powerful before it would affect them.

#892 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:46 am

GFS 12Z out to 36 hours and Ike not heading WSW at all...it looks like West to me...

Bocadude85 · #893 Postby **Bocadude85** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:50 am

gatorcane wrote:GFS 12Z out to 36 hours and Ike not heading WSW at all...it looks like West to me...

looks wsw to me aiming right at the Fla straits

#894 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:52 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:GFS 12Z out to 36 hours and Ike not heading WSW at all...it looks like West to me...

looks wsw to me aiming right at the Fla straits

Negative my friend, its heading towards SE Florida and Central Bahamas now. Between 6 hours and 54 hours I'm measuring a WNW movement or slightly north of West.

#895 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:56 am

Just to keep modeling in perspective check this out from MIA NWS an hour ago, the modeling they are talking about being wrong is very recent and we are looking at 5 days down the road for ike. I know I was up at 4 am due to a power outage and heavy rain and that was not in my forecast from last night..

. About a month ago we had a situation down here where the models all said a ridge was going to breakdown over the weekend, it broke down the following weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1049 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

UPDATE

THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA ARE CLEARLY LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA LONGER THAN WAS ANTICIPATED BY ANY MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. LATEST BASE REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX
CONTINUES TO SHOW A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THIS REGION. THE BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THICK CIRROFORM
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...MAKING THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY UNATTAINABLE. WILL BE
UPDATING THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER/LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

#896 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:57 am

Okay here is the 12Z GFS at 72 hours...looks likely its going to end up north of the 6Z guidance:

ROCK · #897 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:59 am

gatorcane wrote:Okay here is the 12Z GFS at 72 hours...looks likely its going to end up north of the 6Z guidance:

nice ridge above it....if its moving west right now then Ike needs to start moving west soon and not wsw.....

#898 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:01 am

For us WGOMers ... the latest GFS ensemble runs are a little unnerving. Three of these tracks are into the westerrn Gulf:

#899 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:04 am

Approaching SE Florida and Straits:

KWT · #900 Postby **KWT** » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:05 am

Hmm that 12z GFS not good for the Keys nor south Florida, track looks rather close to Donna again thus far.

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