ATL: IKE Discussion

[keithy joe]

Yep we have the possibility of a CAT2/3 with a larger more expansive nm wind field or a CAT4 with a more concentrated slim wind field. Ask yourself this, which one would cause the most damage geographically? It depends on how densely populated the areas the hurricane wind swathe affects, if IKE keeps with the disorganised dual eye wall then there is a higher chance that these densely populated business districts such as Houston will be affected.

[x-y-no]

You are so wrong. People with zero meteorology background should not be posting "absolutes or facts" when they are doing more than taking wild stabs.. Opinions are one thing, pretending that people know what they are talking about is another thing. Media folks are entitled to their opinions on a wide range of subjects, but when it comes to analyzing and predicting a hurricane then they have no right. When was the last time you have seen an anchor talk openly about upper level diffluenceeven if said anchor was a weather "enthusiast, i.e. hobby".

What is the difference between some unqualified poster analyzing a water vapor image and you or I analyzing an MRI picture?? answer that!

It's a fine line. You are of course right that particularly our amateurs should not be posting "absolutes." But we don't want to discourage amateurs from discussing their ideas and understanding.

We do have the pro met indication to give our readers guidance as to who is speaking from expertise. Furthermore, we do require that amateurs indicate that they are only expressing an opinion. Unfortunately, when the board gets really busy it's hard to catch every transgression.

[Steve]

>>What are the chances of this storm taking a turn more north towards the TX/LA border?

Probably not that great although Derek's forecast #20 does bring it into Galveston - which for all intents and purposes brings a very large storm's dirty side to much of that area, but I really want to see that track flatten out a little more to be honest with you (no offense to anyone substantially to our west).
----------------------
tally,

You might be surprised but beside being a marshy coastal plain, we were a longtime Tree City USA town. There are millions of trees here just as there are in Houston, Gainsville and Tallahassee. Many live oaks hundreds of years old to pine trees to bald cypresses to the typical ashes, elms, sycamores, etc. that you'd find anywhere else. Georges '98 and Cindy '05 knocked out plenty of limbs and lots of power. Katrina finished that job including dropping a 50 year old pecan tree on top of my house in Metairie.

Just FYI

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

One other thing vis-a-vis Houston and hurricane force winds - Houston is a heavily forested metropolitan area that hasn't seen a lot of strong winds blow through there. Unlike Miami (sparsely forested), New Orleans (marshy coastal plain), and some of the other cities that have seen hurricanes recently, here you're going to have a hurricane barreling through and bringing down a lot of trees onto homes. I remember what Fran did to Raleigh in 1996, or Hugo did to Charlotte in 1989 - wind GUSTS were into the high cat 1 range, and you had some people without electricity for a month, and homes destroyed on every street because trees fell into them.

You might think cat 2 winds are not enough to bring down structures, but trees most certainly are.

Typical Houston subdivision:

You should have seen Baton Rouge last week, it was a MESS. Lafayette has seen it's share of hurricane winds and gusts with Lili and Rita over the past six years which has really thinned out alot of the weaker trees. Plus, we're just not as "wooded" as other areas and many of the newer neighborhoods have no old trees. Many parts of Baton Rouge are heavily wooded, especially the older sections of the city and you would not believe how many trees came crashing down with just cat. 1 conditions. Houston will receive severe tree damage with similar conditions if not worse given that hurricane force winds haven't struck the area in decades.

[Aristotle]

[quote="Hurricanewatcher2007"]Hope this helps.


Thanks,

That really did help quite a bit!

[mahicks]

Fox13,

I would like for you to know that I have been registered here and used to post a lot when I didn't know anything, asking questions, etc. I have not posted in over a year; yet I am on here DAILY. Your post made me stop what I was doing and log in so I could reply. I want to say AMEN!!!! I agree totally with you. I thank you, and every other Pro-Met on here that gives us soo much of your time. Yall do this for a living working ridiculous hours during the season, and still drop in to drop insight to us between family life and sleep. YOU ALL ROCK. THANK YOU!

P.S. For everyone else into to bashing the Mets, I do not remember EVER this behavior this bad until this year. I have one phrase of advice my Mom gave me and I have lived by it all year on here but I have to go ahead and say it.
"If you don't have nothing nice to say, keep your mouth shut"


Mods, feel free to delete this post. I just couldn't take it any longer. (Check my records, I really have been quiet for over a year!

fox13weather,

This is a public weather site for weather enthusiasts, so, each poster is entitled to his or her opinion - just as the media folks who continue their banter over topics that mean little to the public, but, they do it anyway, for the sake of ratings...

Frank

You are so wrong. People with zero meteorology background should not be posting "absolutes or facts" when they are doing more than taking wild stabs.. Opinions are one thing, pretending that people know what they are talking about is another thing. Media folks are entitled to their opinions on a wide range of subjects, but when it comes to analyzing and predicting a hurricane then they have no right. When was the last time you have seen an anchor talk openly about upper level diffluenceeven if said anchor was a weather "enthusiast, i.e. hobby".

What is the difference between some unqualified poster analyzing a water vapor image and you or I analyzing an MRI picture?? answer that!

[bayoubebe]

The friends I know in the Houston area are just now realizing that Ike will probably bring them hurricane conditions. I tried to warn yesterday but they were convinced of a Corpus impact by listening to local news, etc. I think we've been watching Ike harder in Louisiana than some people in Houston have. I just hope everyone leaves that needs to and those who stay know how to ride a storm out safely. Many many residents there are in for a RUDE awakening. Prayers go out to all in SE Texas and coastal SW LA.

I can not understand why so many Texas residents have not started to evacuate. They've had plenty of forewarning with this storm.
I echo what you say, and pray for the safety of all.

Here in SELA we've started to get little bursts of rain showers and some wind.

[x-y-no]

You might think cat 2 winds are not enough to bring down structures, but trees most certainly are.

Very good point. Katrina, as a cat 1, did tremendous damage in Coral Gables due to downed trees impacting houses.

[dwg71]

Are NOAA flight level wind recordings reduced by 80% or 90%?

Another Question -

Will winds on the north side of Ike diminish some with the erosion of the HP and the gradiant difference isnt as great?

[Windy]

fox13weather,

This is a public weather site for weather enthusiasts, so, each poster is entitled to his or her opinion - just as the media folks who continue their banter over topics that mean little to the public, but, they do it anyway, for the sake of ratings...

Frank

You are so wrong. People with zero meteorology background should not be posting "absolutes or facts" when they are doing more than taking wild stabs.. Opinions are one thing, pretending that people know what they are talking about is another thing. Media folks are entitled to their opinions on a wide range of subjects, but when it comes to analyzing and predicting a hurricane then they have no right. When was the last time you have seen an anchor talk openly about upper level diffluenceeven if said anchor was a weather "enthusiast, i.e. hobby".

What is the difference between some unqualified poster analyzing a water vapor image and you or I analyzing an MRI picture?? answer that!

To be fair, there do exist tightly moderated places on the internet where one can find very, very detailed forecast discussion between people who have no degree in meteorology and yet understand atmospheric processes very well. If you've never given Stormtrack a Google, try it some time. I think your general sentiment is correct, however; and I think anyone who makes hard predictions about what the storm can do should either back it up with data (and be prepared to get reamed if that data is meaningless) or lay heavy on the disclaimer that they don't know anything about what they're talking about.

[Houstonia]

LONE STAR COLLEGE SYSTEM CLOSING ALERT

Closing Alert
All campuses and the System Office, will close at 3:00 p.m. today, Thursday, September 11, through Sunday, September 14. Normal operations will resume Monday, September 15.

This includes:

Montgomery College
Tomball College
Kingwood College
North Harris College
CyFair College
University Center

and all satellite centers...

[Dean4Storms]

We can only hope and pray that this storm continues to struggle with strengthening till landfall.

[KWT]

dwg71, probably not a lot I'd guess but its hard to know right now.

[Steve]

That's right Windy. But like 13 said, medicine may be facinating but at the same time leave the "absolutes" to the pros. That's what I do. Posters are supposed to use a disclaimer if they say something will happen or something is going to happen. May, might, could be etc. are entirely different animals. As our pro-met friend said, it's about the ABSOLUTES. I agree with him especially when we're facing the kind of threat that Ike presents the United States Gulf Coast.

JMO and no offense I hope.

Steve

[fox13weather]

Fox13,

I would like for you to know that I have been registered here and used to post a lot when I didn't know anything, asking questions, etc. I have not posted in over a year; yet I am on here DAILY. Your post made me stop what I was doing and log in so I could reply. I want to say AMEN!!!! I agree totally with you. I thank you, and every other Pro-Met on here that gives us soo much of your time. Yall do this for a living working ridiculous hours during the season, and still drop in to drop insight to us between family life and sleep. YOU ALL ROCK. THANK YOU!

P.S. For everyone else into to bashing the Mets, I do not remember EVER this behavior this bad until this year. I have one phrase of advice my Mom gave me and I have lived by it all year on here but I have to go ahead and say it.
"If you don't have nothing nice to say, keep your mouth shut"


Mods, feel free to delete this post. I just couldn't take it any longer. (Check my records, I really have been quiet for over a year!

fox13weather,

This is a public weather site for weather enthusiasts, so, each poster is entitled to his or her opinion - just as the media folks who continue their banter over topics that mean little to the public, but, they do it anyway, for the sake of ratings...

Frank

You are so wrong. People with zero meteorology background should not be posting "absolutes or facts" when they are doing more than taking wild stabs.. Opinions are one thing, pretending that people know what they are talking about is another thing. Media folks are entitled to their opinions on a wide range of subjects, but when it comes to analyzing and predicting a hurricane then they have no right. When was the last time you have seen an anchor talk openly about upper level diffluenceeven if said anchor was a weather "enthusiast, i.e. hobby".

What is the difference between some unqualified poster analyzing a water vapor image and you or I analyzing an MRI picture?? answer that!

I am too busy this time of year to spend much time here. i encourage open discussion and this can and should be a learning forum, however zipping thru some of the posts todays from joe blow who took an earth science class in the fourth grade and is analyzing a water vapor loop is a joke.

I fine medicine interesting and took a few pre med classes in college. I am not wandering on to a health board and posting - "Judging by that MRI, I see a swirly thing and I think it is cancer" Same thing.

[Frank2]

fox13weather,

You are so wrong. People with zero meteorology background should not be posting "absolutes or facts" when they are doing more than taking wild stabs.. Opinions are one thing, pretending that people know what they are talking about is another thing. Media folks are entitled to their opinions on a wide range of subjects, but when it comes to analyzing and predicting a hurricane then they have no right. When was the last time you have seen an anchor talk openly about upper level diffluenceeven if said anchor was a weather "enthusiast, i.e. hobby".

What is the difference between some unqualified poster analyzing a water vapor image and you or I analyzing an MRI picture?? answer that!

Not to get off topic, but, unlike a media web site that is read by thousands every hour, this is a fairly low band-width web site for weather fans, so, if they take a stab at giving an expert opinion, hopefully everyone here will read the disclaimer (as the moderator noted a few minutes ago), and, understand that it's just the person's opinion...

Still, there are those who lurk here who are investors looking for some "inside information" to give them an edge, so, it's important to use the disclaimer at all times...

As far as the media is concerned, I'm so disgusted with their biased reporting on everything from hurricanes to poliitics that if I were running for President, I'd vow a change to the Constitution...

Back to Ike...

[O Town]

One other thing vis-a-vis Houston and hurricane force winds - Houston is a heavily forested metropolitan area that hasn't seen a lot of strong winds blow through there. Unlike Miami (sparsely forested), New Orleans (marshy coastal plain), and some of the other cities that have seen hurricanes recently, here you're going to have a hurricane barreling through and bringing down a lot of trees onto homes. I remember what Fran did to Raleigh in 1996, or Hugo did to Charlotte in 1989 - wind GUSTS were into the high cat 1 range, and you had some people without electricity for a month, and homes destroyed on every street because trees fell into them.

You might think cat 2 winds are not enough to bring down structures, but trees most certainly are.

I totally agree, Charley ripped a path of huge tree destruction all the way across the state to the east coast.
We were without power for 8-9 days and were 140 miles away from landfall in a much smaller storm.

[tallywx]

I think we might be looking at this double wind maxima thing a bit backwards. It might just be that the broad and spread out nature of the storm is what is reinforcing the double wind maxima, rather than the double wind maxima promoting a broad storm. Think about a major metropolitan area (like Houston, for example). When the metro. area grows to a large-enough aerial coverage that you have a lot of homes out very far from the population center that need to be "fed" by roads, you get a double expressway beltline encircling the city. Because Ike has such a wide swatch of lower pressure promoting updrafts and lift, maybe there's no choice but for the storm to be in "balance" by having concentric eyewalls.

[HURAKAN]

Buoy 42001 will be rocked: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[dwg71]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe