ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[THead]

It's starting to rain hard here in Biloxi, experiencing some squalls and gusty winds, lots of thunder, could this the beginning of Gustav for my area?

Start tracking the squalls with the radar, looks like you had a nice one just go through.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[Nexus]

.gif of Gustav's approach to Cuba (posted by USTropics last night)

Notice the dry air slot before intensification north of Caymans. NOT saying is going to bomb cat 4/5, the SST's are not similar and other factors - just wanted to note the dry air similarity.

[HurricaneRobert]

For a Category 4 strike, those buildings held up really well.

[Ptarmigan]

I am a little worried about the latest satellite images

Why so Derek? I heard on the local news that if Gustav slows down, it could hug the coast of Louisiana and move west towards Texas.

[hiflyer]

Ship 27.6 -85.6 C6CL6 measuring 78mph winds 115.75 nautical miles northeast of the center. Also reporting 11 meter waves every 2 seconds.

Ship is 800 feet long....almost 15kts speed when fully loaded....11 meter waves could be higher than the main deck if loaded down.
http://www.vulcanmaterials.com/ship/MV_ ... _Specs.pdf

Bet the 33 man crew is peddling away as fast as they can....hopefully successful.

[stormy1970al]

We had our first feeder band here around 4:30-5pm. It was pretty nasty.

[attallaman]

It's starting to rain hard here in Biloxi, experiencing some squalls and gusty winds, lots of thunder, could this the beginning of Gustav for my area?

Yeah, it's Gustav. I just had a brief shower and gusty winds here and I'm 150 miles inland.

Your 150 miles inland, wow. I'm about 3 miles N of the GOM in flood zone "C" which fortunately was not included in the mandatory evacuation order for Harrison County, Mississippi last night, only flood zones "A" and "B" were in the order as well as residents living in FEMA trailers and Katrina cottages.

[HURAKAN]

[Bunkertor]

I don't see any dry air intrusion.

I hate to ask questions about the projected impact time but this pic suggests it could be earlier than 8 AM CDT...

Right ?

Theyre going to start getting impacted by squalls really soon. He is definitely coming in quick.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

Will an arrival time before sunrise have a significantly "positive" effect concerning the strength ?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Now down to 952.8mb pressure from latest recon fix. Not sure what they will have on the VDM though.

[RL3AO]

Recon data suggesting a more NNW-like movement in the past 90 minutes or so. Lets see where the VDM is.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am a little worried about the latest satellite images

Don't leave us hanging, Derek.

Derek likes to tease us and then run

[THead]

Slides of images of damages in Cuba:

http://www.telemundo51.com/slideshow/no ... etail.html

http://www.telemundo51.com/slideshow/no ... etail.html

Wow, what a mess. And not just weak buildings either, seeing alot of heavy duty brick, and cbs constructed buildings wiped out.

[KBBOCA]

Damage in Cuba:

Link: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVWj ... wD92THN402

Thanks for the link to the story re: Cuba Hurakan. I was stunned by the reported windspeeds.

Officials measured gusts of 212 mph (340 kph) in the western town of Paso Real del San Diego — a new national record for maximum wind speed in a country often hit by major hurricanes, said Miguel Angel Hernandez of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Yikes!

Does anyone have handy the highest reported windspeeds for US Landfalling hurricanes? Just curious. Glad Louisiana will be spared the wrath Cuba faced. And yet Gustav may still be a disastrous event for NOLA and other areas of Louisiana. Praying for all in Gustav's path.

[Cape Verde]

Chances of me getting ANY sleep tonight virtually zero . Hopefully he doesn't get any stronger but that is a very menacing last visible. I've been talking to people in the city that are DOWNPLAYING the potential effects because "it's only a cat 3 with 115 winds." Big lesson about to be taught in south-central Louisiana. It's been DECADES since we've even had sustained cat 1 winds here and from reading what many of our great posters have reported having gone through with Wilma, Charley, Rita, Ivan, etc I'm braced for quite a blow.

What the heck are you talking about? I lived in Lafayette in 1992 and Andrew came right through with the eye about 9 miles from my house.

It was Cat 3 at the time.

[BigB0882]

I hate to ask questions about the projected impact time but this pic suggests it could be earlier than 8 AM CDT...

Right ?[/quote]

Theyre going to start getting impacted by squalls really soon. He is definitely coming in quick.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes[/quote]

Will an arrival time before sunrise have a significantly "positive" effect concerning the strength ?[/quote]

It is a double edged sword. It is certainly good because the land will stop it from strengthening anymore but at the same time no one wants a strengthening hurricane at landfall.

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... on-in.html

[tolakram]

Almost a full wrap, and this is happening over cooler (but still warm) water. Lets hope it's temporary and the dry air wins.

Hurakan, hope everyone in your family is OK, thanks for the pics.

[KWT]

NNW motion...thats really bad news for N.O if thats the truth, surely we aren't looking at a near dead on hit on the city?

[shawn67]

According to the tropical atlantic overlay for google I am still showing the eye to be just east projected NHC position and 273 miles from NOLA does that jive with what everyone else is seeing?